Illinois Post-1992

[Kevin]

Why did Illinois take such a hard turn towards the Democrats in the years following the 1992 election? I mean I see the reason why other states like CT, VT, DE, and Cali, did, but I see no obvious explanation for why IL lost it's swing state status?

The state just seemed to just start voting heavily Democratic after 1992. Despite the fact that it shares alot in common with other large states that were electoral battlegrounds in the rust belt during this period like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Which also extends to the states demographics and dynamics as Illinois like the more competitive rust belt states mentioned above has at least one heavily Democratic large city(with a number of smaller more divided ones), swing/Republican leaning suburban areas, and heavily Republican leaning rural areas making up large chunks of the state. And within these areas like the similar states mentioned, you have large numbers of traditionally disadvantaged racial minorities(Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians) traditionally blue collar ethnic white's like people of Irish, Italian, or Eastern European descent. As well as middle class/well off suburbanites, and sizable chunks of traditional rural white voters.  

Also, until as recently as 2002 cosnervative Republicans held a number of prominent positions in the state including the Governorship, the State Legislature, a number of other state offices, a US Senate seat, and a majority of the House delegation from Illinois.

So which begs the question for me, what went wrong for the Republicans in Illinois after 1992 despite the recent Obama factor? Bush Sr. won it in 1988, and he stood a chance of winning it in 1992 had he faced better political conditions. Additionally, with all of this in mind the Republicans should have stood a chance here in 2000.

 
 

[freepcrusher]

a lot of the republicans in DuPage County and the surrounding area either died off, switched to independent, or retired and moved away.

[Badger]

GOP support in suburban Cook County has collapsed. As recent as 1988, GHW Bush won 43% of the vote in Cook County, or only -10 PVI nationally, and only -7 PVI statewide. IL Republicans would pimp their grandmothers to come anywhere near that close in Cook today. Plus even pre-Obama there has been a smaller, but steady erosion to GOP margins in Cook's suburban ring counties during the past 2 decades. That's been more than enough to offset Democratic defections in the far less populated downstate "Little Dixie" parts of the state.

[sg0508]

The answer to the question is very simple.  The GOP lost suburban America. That's why states like MI, NJ, DE, CT, PA, etc have been lost too.  The GOP used to swamp the democrats in the burbs when they would talk about taxes, crime, jobs and had more moderate social stances. 

[DS0816]

Illinois was, perhaps, the best bellwether state from the Rs' first election, in 1856, up till 1988, having voted with the winner in all but three: 1884, 1916, 1976. All those were D presidential victories where the losing R carried the Prairie State.

The hard right turn in social policy by the Rs is what helped turn Illinois and likeminded voting states in the upper midwest, and all of New England (leaving only New Hampshire competitive), away from the Republican Party. (Think of that 1992 Republican National Convention speech by that a**hole Pat Buchanan!)

Ill. won't be going back to Team Red unless the party is winning nationally by at least 6 or 7 points. And the Rs haven't won by greater than 2.46% since the end of the 1980s.

[Kevin]

Illinois was, perhaps, the best bellwether state from the Rs' first election, in 1856, up till 1988, having voted with the winner in all but three: 1884, 1916, 1976. All those were D presidential victories where the losing R carried the Prairie State.

The hard right turn in social policy by the Rs is what helped turn Illinois and likeminded voting states in the upper midwest, and all of New England (leaving only New Hampshire competitive), away from the Republican Party. (Think of that 1992 Republican National Convention speech by that a**hole Pat Buchanan!)

Ill. won't be going back to Team Red unless the party is winning nationally by at least 6 or 7 points. And the Rs haven't won by greater than 2.46% since the end of the 1980s.

Of course other unique issues played into these trends as well alongside the GOP's hard right turn on social issues. Additionally IL trendwise was still largely Republican on the state wide level, with voters still willing to vote GOP overall. Until the allegations and convictions of corruption started hitting prominent of the IL Republican party i.e. George Ryan and others, which led to the Dems gaining a monopoly on statewide power.

[WalterMitty]

it is pretty simple...suburbia took a huge democrat swing...

same thing happened in ny on a smaller scale.  ny used to be a lean-democrat swing state.  now it is solidly democrat since long island...and westchester and rockland counties no longer vote gop.