Shuler considering leaving Congress

[krazen1211]

http://www.mountainx.com/staffblogs/article/rep._shuler_reportedly_considering_athletic_director_job_at_ut_knoxville


Tony Basilio, host of the The Edge radio program on WVLZ radio in Knoxville, TN, is reporting that Western North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler is considering taking a job as the athletic director of the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, where he gained national attention as a top quarterback in the early 1990s.

The report comes as the Democratic congressman, who has represented the 11th district of WNC since 2007, faces an upcoming primary challenge from Asheville City Council member Cecil Bothwell ahead of the 2012 election. The lines and demographics of his district are also in question, as the first Republican N.C. General Assembly in 140 years prepares to release its redistricting plans on July 1.



Woot. R+1.

[Keystone Phil]

Naturally, this would be in the Gubernatorial Elections board.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, I saw "Shuler considering..." on the main page and I was expecting a story about him considering a primary challenge against Bev Perdue. How disappointing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL krazen.

[redcommander]

Yes I love Heath Shuler. He's my favorite Democrat in the house. Hopefully he can win a primary against Perdue.

[krazen1211]

Naturally, this would be in the Gubernatorial Elections board.

Ugh, I had 2 windows open. Oh well, someone will move it.

[Holmes]

Er, his district will be gerrymandered by the Republicans by 2012 anyway, right?

[Hash]

Good riddance.

[Miles]

Er, his district will be gerrymandered by the Republicans by 2012 anyway, right?

Yep, he's probably gone. His district now has the most Republican PVI in the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Erm what? No way it's higher than NC-5, 6 or 11.

[Miles]

Erm what? No way it's higher than NC-5, 6 or 11.

Yeah, NC-11 is now the most Republican.

Coble has a 55/44 McCain district now and McHenry and Foxx are each at 57/42. Poor Shuler is at 58/41 McCain...

[krazen1211]

Erm what? No way it's higher than NC-5, 6 or 11.

They did a masterful job at making all 10 districts very even in terms of Presidential voting strength. Local voting strength not quite as much.

Really a perfectly drawn map. NC GOP was out for blood after a century of being victims; perhaps the same will be true in Georgia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that wouldn't be true in Georgia as you can't make that sort of appeal to relative victimhood - at least not over such a long period of time. At least not without absurdity. Past thirty years, though, eh...

[minionofmidas]

Erm what? No way it's higher than NC-5, 6 or 11.

Yeah, NC-11 is now the most Republican.

Coble has a 55/44 McCain district now and McHenry and Foxx are each at 57/42. Poor Shuler is at 58/41 McCain...

Possibly Red meant the current district, as opposed to the unveiled plan. Possibly. It's also possible I'm giving him too much credit.

[Joe Biden 2020]

There goes another Blue Dog.  With Dan Boren leaving the House and now Heath Shuler, the Blue Dog Caucus is getting a lot smaller, and I imagine will get even smaller in January 2013 if 2012 is another Republican year.

[Torie]

There goes another Blue Dog.  With Dan Boren leaving the House and now Heath Shuler, the Blue Dog Caucus is getting a lot smaller, and I imagine will get even smaller in January 2013 if 2012 is another Republican year.

The new California map may breed some new Blue Dogs.  It has a fair number of marginal seats, in which the standard issue very liberal California Democrat would be vulnerable. But of course that requires voters to be strategic in their primary choices, something that rarely happens in California. Partisan voters on the left coast usually prefer deep blue and red, and eschew pastels.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Of course, the kind of Blue Dog that is bred in California is much different from the kind that has been losing left and right. It's always strange to me to see people like Joe Baca, Adam Schiff, or Mike Thompson in the list of Blue Dogs, since they just seem like generic Democratic backbenchers.

Elsewhere, Kratovil might make a comeback, depending on how redistricting goes in Maryland, and there might be one or two from upstate New York or the new Illinois districts. I don't see the caucus's numbers increasing any, particularly given that a third of the current roster is probably going to be gone in redistricting (or is already retiring).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Erm what? No way it's higher than NC-5, 6 or 11.

Yeah, NC-11 is now the most Republican.

Coble has a 55/44 McCain district now and McHenry and Foxx are each at 57/42. Poor Shuler is at 58/41 McCain...

Possibly Red meant the current district, as opposed to the unveiled plan.

Yeah. I hadn't seen the new map yet.

[Miles]

I'd say the odds of Shuler leaving Congress are pretty even. His new district isn't totally unwinnable, but even if he won in 2012, he'd have to repeatedly fight for it.

With the extensive lawsuits, the word in NC is that the new map might not even be in effect until the 2014 elections...

[krazen1211]

I'd say the odds of Shuler leaving Congress are pretty even. His new district isn't totally unwinnable, but even if he won in 2012, he'd have to repeatedly fight for it.

With the extensive lawsuits, the word in NC is that the new map might not even be in effect until the 2014 elections...

Don't think that's what happened last time....they used the drawn maps until successfully litigated, at which point the legislature redrew them.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd say the odds of Shuler leaving Congress are pretty even. His new district isn't totally unwinnable, but even if he won in 2012, he'd have to repeatedly fight for it.

With the extensive lawsuits, the word in NC is that the new map might not even be in effect until the 2014 elections...

Don't think that's what happened last time....they used the drawn maps until successfully litigated, at which point the legislature redrew them.

There is a pretty good chance that Democrats could control the legislature again by the next time redistricting is done. 

[krazen1211]

There is a pretty good chance that Democrats could control the legislature again by the next time redistricting is done. 

Believe that if you want, but the lawsuits become irrelevant then. North Carolina doesn't bar mid-decade Congressional redistricting so they could change the map anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If it's delayed until 2014, then Ellmers is gone. Granted whoever beats her would be a one-termer unless the Democrats can retake one of the houses of the legislature.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, DailyKosElections has a comprehensive analysis on why the map is probably illegal.

http://elections.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/02/990788/-The-illegality-of-the-proposed-North-Carolina-map?via=blog_542760

I'd be very interested to hear Lewis Trondheim's comments and possible rebuttal. 

[Torie]

It is a confusing article, but unless a black VAP majority district can be drawn connecting clear communities of interest, and the GOP map does not, and goes farther afield, I don't really see a problem with the GOP map myself.  The SCOTUS decisions are hardly consistent in any event, and it continually tacks from one map review to the next. I assume that if the DOJ intervenes here, the matter will be going to SCOTUS, and Justice Kennedy will get to elaborate on, and revise and extend, his Bonilla decision.