MT-PPP: Obama trails all

[King]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0622.pdf

Obama
Approve 43%
Disapprove 54%

Matchups:
Romney 49% Obama 41%
Bachmann 48% Obama 42%
Cain 46% Obama 41%
Palin 48% Obama 44%
Pawlenty 44% Obama 41% (lulz T-Paw)

GOP Favorables
Cain -2
Bachmann -6
Palin -10
Pawlenty -14
Romney -15

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's going to make things interesting for Tester.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Worse than I thought, but Montana does have a libertarian streak. The Palin results seem fishy, though.

[King]

It should be noted that this sample voted 50-41 for McCain in 2008.  The state only went 49-47 McCain in 2008 (MT was one of the states to have an unofficial Ron Paul option on the ballot).

[Eraserhead]

He trails Palin? I guess he won't be picking this one up.

[Oakvale]

Odd.

[HST1948]

It's interesting that T-Paw does worse than any other republican in the match up. I guess the major player from Minnesota in the election will be Bachmann. 

[Mehmentum]

The fact that T-Paw is performing worse than Palin, its just so funny.

[Miles]

He trails Bachmann by 6!?

...yikes.

At least its only 3 EVs.

[pbrower2a]

Despite having an approval rating in the range in which he is within striking distance in Montana, President Obama loses to all significant GOP candidates (including Cain and Bachmann, whom I do not yet show.)

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

(Deleted to accommodate Rick Perry)

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)

Obama -- Hawaii and Illinois...he will tie himself!

[pbrower2a]

It should be noted that this sample voted 50-41 for McCain in 2008.  The state only went 49-47 McCain in 2008 (MT was one of the states to have an unofficial Ron Paul option on the ballot).

Did Montana get a bunch of oil and gas employees?

[freepcrusher]

this is interesting because Obama was within striking distance last election. Both of Montana's senators are democrats so this makes it even more shocking.

[DS0816]

It should be noted that this sample voted 50-41 for McCain in 2008.  The state only went 49-47 McCain in 2008 (MT was one of the states to have an unofficial Ron Paul option on the ballot).

So, this 9-point advantage should be adjusted for a 6- to 7-point Democratic shift? (John McCain held onto for the Republicans Montana by a margin of 2.38% while Barack Obama won over females at 51%.)

[Niemeyerite]

outlier, probably, if the sample was +9 McCain.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Romney and Pawlenty are more disliked than Palin? That's a strange poll to be sure.

[krazen1211]

outlier, probably, if the sample was +9 McCain.

No, its standard buyer's remorse.

[Tender Branson]

I`ll continue with my Romney-only map:

[exopolitician]

outlier, probably, if the sample was +9 McCain.

No, its standard buyer's remorse.

Thats totally the reason.

[Associate Justice PiT]

outlier, probably, if the sample was +9 McCain.

No, its standard buyer's remorse.

Thats totally the reason.

     People are less likely to profess supporting an incumbent who has become unpopular. While the Republican vote is probably still being overstated to some extent, it would be strange to not see the sample include a higher proportion of self-identified McCain voters than there were in real life.

[DS0816]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Given the 6.62% adjustment, thanks to the polling oversample (9 points, from 2008 McCain voters)

• Romney vs. Obama: R+1.38% (Shift, from 2008: D+1.00)
• Bachmann vs. Obama: D+0.62% (Shift: D+3.00)
• Cain vs. Obama: D+1.62% (Shift: D+4.00)
• Palin vs. Obama: D+2.62% (Shift: D+5.00)
• Pawlenty vs. Obama: D+3.62% (Shift: D+6.00)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

outlier, probably, if the sample was +9 McCain.

No, its standard buyer's remorse.

That hasn't been shown in any of PPP's other polls using this turnout model. Nice try though.

[Gustaf]

Before people jump on the sample, you should keep in mind that 2 years after an election the 2008 sample can jump around a bit. Especially if you have mood changes. Typically, people who would normally vote Republican but voted Obama in 2008 are going to remember themselves voting Republican back in 2008 if they decide to do so in 2012. Thus, weighting by previous vote often risks underestimating swings. Just saying...

[DS0816]

Before people jump on the sample, you should keep in mind that 2 years after an election the 2008 sample can jump around a bit. Especially if you have mood changes. Typically, people who would normally vote Republican but voted Obama in 2008 are going to remember themselves voting Republican back in 2008 if they decide to do so in 2012. Thus, weighting by previous vote often risks underestimating swings. Just saying...

But what about direction of the "swing"?

It is fact that nearly all two-term presidents won re-election with an increased U.S. Popular Vote, national margin, and electoral-vote count (by comparison to first election). And it's very common for re-elected incumbents to gain between 4% and 6% with national margin (over losing opposition-party challenger).

Just saying…

[memphis]

Not a swing state under any circumstances. Doesn't matter. The end.

[big bad fab]

I`ll continue with my Romney-only map:

Great.
This is the only map worth updating.

All States results prove that Romney is the only solution for the GOP, even by default.