IA: Des Moines Register: Romney and Bachmann at the top

[Mr. Morden]

Comparing the 2007 with the current poll numbers, I think there is still plenty of time and room to improve for serious candidates like Pawlenty or Huntsman who are now polling in the single digits - Huckabee has shown that it's possible. A candidate like Cain, however, has probably reached his peak. He seems to have been losing ground in the polls recently.

Hunstman has already declared that he'll skip Iowa, so the whole conversation is moot.

Pawlenty has nowhere near the charisma and charm of Huckabee, nor the natural constituency to strongly support him.

Oh yes, I forgot that Huntsman decided to skip Iowa. So he's out of any considerations regarding Iowa of course. As for Pawlenty, he's an evangelical, or at least claims to be one. Maybe evangelicals will eventually rally behind him?

Pawlenty's potential path to success likely involves both of the following happening:

1) Perry doesn't run.
2) Romney either implodes, or largely skips Iowa, and Pawlenty scoops up the bulk of his former supporters.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can see Bachmann being the Huckabee of next year's primaries. She wins Iowa, but it doesn't fit into the media narrative of Romney vs. Pawlenty and/or Huntsman, so it doesn't give her any momentum, and any further primary victories are restricted to the Bible Belt.

[NHI]

Prediction: Bachmann will win Iowa, Romney comes in second, Romney wins New Hampshire and then it's Romney and Bachmann the rest of the way. Romney comes out on top.

[Mr. Morden]

Prediction: Bachmann will win Iowa, Romney comes in second, Romney wins New Hampshire and then it's Romney and Bachmann the rest of the way. Romney comes out on top.

Well, that's the obvious extrapolation from current trends.  But there are likely to be several unpredictable momentum changes between now and then that'll shake things up, perhaps as drastically as those that led Kerry and McCain to rise from the ashes in 2004 and 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

So Huckabee was at 4% in this poll four years ago? Excellent. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Bachmann will most certainly win Iowa. She's just the type of candidate they will go for, unless Santorum becomes this year's Huckabee.

[Sam Spade]

The only information to glean from this early poll is that it is now rather obvious why Romney is focusing on New Hampshire and ignoring Iowa.  Once the so-cons, and other anti-Romney forces unite behind a candidate (which will occur, but not now), he will be doomed there.  Not saying you couldn't figure this out before, of course.

[pbrower2a]

Lunatic fringe candidate. She loses by a huge margin if nominated.

[Badger]

I can see Bachmann being the Huckabee of next year's primaries. She wins Iowa, but it doesn't fit into the media narrative of Romney vs. Pawlenty and/or Huntsman, so it doesn't give her any momentum, and any further primary victories are restricted to the Bible Belt.

Prediction: Bachmann will win Iowa, Romney comes in second, Romney wins New Hampshire and then it's Romney and Bachmann the rest of the way. Romney comes out on top.

Correct answers, IMHO.

Mind you, Perry entering scrambles the whole pot. Assuming he does, can he supplant Bachmann as the conservative tea party alternative in Iowa, especially as she seems to be consolidating herself there? If so, assuming Bachmann wins Iowa, Romney wins NH, and Perry wins SC (if he doesn't he's toast), where can Perry win a non-Bible Belt "breakout" state to be considered a viable national candidate rather than a regional one, especially if Bachmann continues her campaign and thereby splits the TP/evangelical/anti-Romney vote?