Is Colorado winnable for the GOP candidate in a close race?

[tpfkaw]

Lets not forget Tancredos strong performance, he very well could of been the first Constitution Party governor!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Joseph_Hickel

[DS0816]

In 1988, 1992, 2004, and 2008, Colorado was no more than 2.50% outside the national margin of a prevailing candidate … and voted with the winner in each of those elections.

[Person Man]

If it went for Bob Dole, it's winnable for Republicans.

If it went for Mike Dukakis, it's winnable for Democrats.

[anvi]

Depends.  I do think the evidence shows that there is a trend left in Colorado.  But in 2008, if I remember right, the growing Hispanic vote there did not come out in as large numbers for Obama as it did in other western states.  The youth vote and higher-ed vote did on the other hand come out strongly for Obama.  If Hispanics don't turn out strongly for Obama, and the other two demographics votes are depressed, and if the GOP nominee gets enough GOP-loyalists in the state to the polls, it could conceivably be won.  It is, at any rate, on my present list of the nine states that will help decide the race.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Would the "establishment" candidate Lt. Gov. Jane Norton had defeated Michael Bennet had she not been teabagged, and if so, how would this play into the question at hand?

[King]

Would the "establishment" candidate Lt. Gov. Jane Norton had defeated Michael Bennet had she not been teabagged, and if so, how would this play into the question at hand?

Norton was a weakling, too.   Colorado Republicans are a weak bunch and they have been in steep decline for the past decade.  Similar to states like Montana and West Virginia, expect to soon ignore how Colorado votes in Presidential elections and just pencil in the Democrats to win every statewide race, barring some drastic turnaround.

[freepcrusher]

Colorado is basically the most polarized between the two local parties. I've never lived there but I do know that Colorado has a ultraconservative republican party which is a mix of a sort of don't tread on me libertarianism, pro-gun, very anti-tax, and some social conservative elements (think Colorado Springs). But the state democratic party also has a lot of uber-feminists (think of Pat Schroeder), environmentalists, potheads/hippies, and gay rights activists (one of the congressman is actually openly gay).

[pbrower2a]

Colorado and Virginia have now unambiguous swing states in the sense that they are necessary GOP wins in the sense that Florida and Ohio have long been and Missouri used to be. In a 50-50 split of electoral votes and popular votes, the GOP nominee must get every one of them. They will likely vote within 3% of each other.

On the other side are Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe Nevada and New Mexico -- states that the Democratic nominee really has to win to have a chance.

[Smash255]

Colorado is basically the most polarized between the two local parties. I've never lived there but I do know that Colorado has a ultraconservative republican party which is a mix of a sort of don't tread on me libertarianism, pro-gun, very anti-tax, and some social conservative elements (think Colorado Springs). But the state democratic party also has a lot of uber-feminists (think of Pat Schroeder), environmentalists, potheads/hippies, and gay rights activists (one of the congressman is actually openly gay).

I would agree.  Denver and Boulder are both very liberal and have quite a bit of sway with the Democratic Party in the state, the GOP on the other hand is controlled by the ultra conservatives, with increasing power to the religious right.  I think that has played a big role in Colorado's Democratic trends, which has been centered in suburban Denver. 

 While Hispanic growth has also played a big role in the movement in suburban Denver, so has well educated middle to upper middle class white voters in suburban Denver.  In the past they voted heavily Republican, and were strong for someone like former Governor Owens, someone like him could never get nominated with the current party. 

As a result they nominate bible thumpers, bigots, and assorted other crazies which scare the living hell out of the well educated moderates in suburban Denver.  Unless, the GOP stops doing that, they likely don't win a key statewide race for quite awhile.

[freepcrusher]

I wouldn't underestimate the voting habits of Colorado voters. Remember they elected Wayne Allard (who was considered one of the most conservative senators) twice.

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which scare the living hell out of the well educated moderates in suburban Denver. 

Then what explains Douglas County. It is a county full of the well educated moderates you speak of but McCain still won 58 percent of the vote there.

[Simfan34]

Yes, absolutely... as long as the candidate is either Romney or Huntsman.

[tmthforu94]

Colorado and Virginia have now unambiguous swing states in the sense that they are necessary GOP wins in the sense that Florida and Ohio have long been and Missouri used to be. In a 50-50 split of electoral votes and popular votes, the GOP nominee must get every one of them. They will likely vote within 3% of each other.

On the other side are Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe Nevada and New Mexico -- states that the Democratic nominee really has to win to have a chance.

I don't think this is necessarily true.

While Pennsylvania hasn't voted GOP in a long time, current polling suggests Pennsylvania would be more likely to vote for the GOP nominee in 2012 than Colorado or Virginia (though we haven't had much polling from either place). This is an extremely plausible scenario for how the 2012 map could look, which would give the GOP a win.