What will be the situation in Libya as of September 1?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Discuss.

[patrick1]

I have no clue.  NATO does not have a clear mission and they have self limited themselves.  Recent events in China could be a good sign for the rebels though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

NATO does not have a clear mission

"Gaddafi gone" sounds pretty clear to me.

[King]

NATO does not have a clear mission

"Gaddafi gone" sounds pretty clear to me.

Liberals and conservatives both have the goal of the US economy being strong and prosperous.  Their missions are not the same.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Option 2 is basically what we've got now.

Could still be the case in September though.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Same as it is now

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Option 2 is basically what we've got now.

Could still be the case in September though.

That's kind of why I asked it, sooner or later something's go to give. Imagine if NATO bombed for a year, you can't have the same status quo. Gaddafi's military has been cut off by Russia and China, and he can't get new weapons or equipment needed for maintenance, sure now he can look to places like Belarus and Zimbabwe but there's only so much they can sell, and how long before his mercenaries decide to just cash their paychecks and go home? Tripoli is growing more unstable largely due to lack of supplies, soaring fuel costs, etc. Not sure if things will finally break down by September, but without a massive turnaround it has to happen sometime.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Politically, it would be very tough for NATO to justify a stop of the military intervention just like that. Imagine the outcry by the Benghazi government.

(However, maybe it would be possible to gradually reduce the level of involvement over a longer period time so that nobody really notices it? )

[Antonio the Sixth]

Option 1, let's be optimistic.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-libya-nato-uprising-idUSTRE75L2T320110622

[TheGlobalizer]

I could see Gaddafi's forces falling back to Tripoli and reaching an uneasy equilibrium there.  NATO won't do what it has to in Tripoli and Gaddafi will consolidate and bunker up.

[Del Tachi]

Unless ground troops are sent in, the NATO mission will fail.  Option 3.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

So yeah, this is coming up in a few days.

Unless ground troops are sent in, the NATO mission will fail.  Option 3.

Oops.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Depending how you define "ousted" (he's not at home anymore) or "emprisoned" (he's not really free of his movements), option 1 seems to be what happened.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Depending how you define "ousted" (he's not at home anymore) or "emprisoned" (he's not really free of his movements), option 1 seems to be what happened.

It's possible that he might be exiled, too; we haven't heard from him in a few days now, right?

[GMantis]

Depending how you define "ousted" (he's not at home anymore) or "emprisoned" (he's not really free of his movements), option 1 seems to be what happened.

He still controls parts of Libya, however

[The Mikado]

Depending how you define "ousted" (he's not at home anymore) or "emprisoned" (he's not really free of his movements), option 1 seems to be what happened.

He still controls parts of Libya, however

Qaddafi loyalists still hold Sirt and some random patches of sparsely-populated southwestern Libya (and maybe hold a few towns west of Tripoli, but that area's been surrendering pretty fast the last few days).  His status as "Mayor of Sirt" is untenable in the long run and is likely untenable in the medium-run.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

here is a preview going forward:

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

here is a preview going forward:

Yeah. They're Muslims. It's Eid. This is news?

I've never understood the logic that a secular dictatorship is inherently better than a religious [not even necessarily as oppressive a dictatorship, though vanishingly unlikely to be even close to ideal], unless it's Christian in which case oh that's fine.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

yo, fyi, the US has something called separation of church and state, which was instituted by believers who understood the dangers of state run religion.  if you don't think the Arab Spring is going to end in a bunch of Islamic based sharia law states, then you're very very naive.

[Simfan34]

yo, fyi, the US has something called separation of church and state, which was instituted by believers who understood the dangers of state run religion.  if you don't think the Arab Spring is going to end in a bunch of Islamic based sharia law states, then you're very very naive.

Or confident of the beliefs of the people. There was a pretty insightful piece in Time the other day about it. No one, at least no one important, is clamouring for Sharia. These people want democracy, some "Islamic democracy", but the fight was for a democratic and free state, not the new Caliphate.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

yo, fyi, the US has something called separation of church and state, which was instituted by believers who understood the dangers of state run religion.  if you don't think the Arab Spring is going to end in a bunch of Islamic based sharia law states, then you're very very naive.

Or confident of the beliefs of the people. There was a pretty insightful piece in Time the other day about it. No one, at least no one important, is clamouring for Sharia. These people want democracy, some "Islamic democracy", but the fight was for a democratic and free state, not the new Caliphate.

so, the opinion of Time trumps the opinion of the Egyptian street?  who knew?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

here is a preview going forward:

How would what you're hinting at actually be worse than the regime just toppled? I mean, they'll sell the 'West' oil just as Gaddafi did, so no issues from the realist bullsh!t point of view here.

[Middle-aged Europe]

 if you don't think the Arab Spring is going to end in a bunch of Islamic based sharia law states, then you're very very naive.

Suppose that makes opebo the only non-naive person on the forum.

Mhm.

[Simfan34]

yo, fyi, the US has something called separation of church and state, which was instituted by believers who understood the dangers of state run religion.  if you don't think the Arab Spring is going to end in a bunch of Islamic based sharia law states, then you're very very naive.

Or confident of the beliefs of the people. There was a pretty insightful piece in Time the other day about it. No one, at least no one important, is clamouring for Sharia. These people want democracy, some "Islamic democracy", but the fight was for a democratic and free state, not the new Caliphate.

so, the opinion of Time trumps the opinion of the Egyptian street?  who knew?

But Time is telling you what the Egyptian street really thinks, and not what you think it thinks.