Predictions for the Midterms

[Keystone Phil]

Post your predictions here.

Here's how I see it....

District 1 - Supersoulty gets an easy win over TheBulldog.

Special Election District 1 - Andrew enjoys a comfortable victory over True Democrat in this Special Election.

District 2 - Siege hangs onto his Senate seat though badnarikin04 puts up a stronger than expected challenge. Race will be decided by a vote or two.

District 3 - UPSET - Write-In victory for Texasgurl but a narrow victory it will be.

District 4 - Harry loses his seat to Hermit in another close race.

District 5 - Though polls show SteveNick down, I predict that he will keep his seat by a margin of 3 - 4 votes.

Midwest Governor - Dabeav gives ILikeVerin a scare but the Independent from Minnesota will win re-election.

[ilikeverin]

Midwest Governor - Dabeav gives ILikeVerin a scare but the Independent from Minnesota will win re-election.

Are you kidding?  He's going to give me an ulcer, if not a heart attack!

[Keystone Phil]

Midwest Governor - Dabeav gives ILikeVerin a scare but the Independent from Minnesota will win re-election.

Are you kidding?  He's going to give me an ulcer, if not a heart attack!

...but atleast you still win  (or atleast that's what I'm predicting)...

[Alcon]

District 1 - Supersoulty wins a predictable victory over TheBulldog, who is a pretty cool guy, but obviously a sacrificial lamb.

Special Election District 1 - Andrew will win over True Democrat by a small to moderate margin.

District 2 - Although badnarikin04 will do better than he polled, Siege will be the clear winner - but not by a huge margin.

District 3 - Al will take the seat, but write-ins for Texasgurl will make this a close one.

District 4 - Hermit will eek out a victory of one or two votes at most.

District 5 - Gabu will do a lot better than anyone expected, but it's anybody's guess. In the end, though, polls showing a Gabu victory of 60/40 will be proven wrong to nobody's surprise.

Midwest Governor - ILikeVerin will retain his seat. Atlasian historians will look back on this election as a major chance for Debeav partially ruined by scare tactics during campaigning and the lack of too many Libertarians in the district. The messiest race considering the importance of the office.

[Akno21]

Supersoulty will win while getting 55-60% of the vote.
True Democrat will win while getting 48-53%.
Siege will win while getting 60-65%.
Al will win while getting 50-55%.
Hermit will win while getting 45-50%.
Gabu will win while getting 50-55%.
Ilikeverin will win while getting 45-50%.

[Colin]

D1 Regular- Supersoulty wins with 63% of the vote in a landslide against The Bulldog
D1 Special- Adnrew wins with about 55% of the vote due to a higher number of Democrats in the old D1 and thus a better showing for True Democrat.
D2- I'm predicting an upset. Badnarikin04 has grown in the polls ever since the beginning of the race. I expect that growth to continue and lead him to a slim victory. Very close.
D3- Texasgurl barely defeats Al. Might be a tie, might also be an Al win. All in all very close.
D4- Hermit wins with 42% of the vote. WMS gets around 20% with 7% for Dibble and 31% for Harry. With four candidates in play we will have to wait for preferences.
D5- SteveNick gets another term it will be close though. In the end it will come down to a battle of voter turnout. The UAC bastion in the West is split up but StevenNick has won before due to GOP pocket votes.

[Akno21]

D1 Regular- Supersoulty wins with 63% of the vote in a landslide against The Bulldog
D1 Special- Adnrew wins with about 55% of the vote due to a higher number of Democrats in the old D1 and thus a better showing for True Democrat.
D2- I'm predicting an upset. Badnarikin04 has grown in the polls ever since the beginning of the race. I expect that growth to continue and lead him to a slim victory. Very close.
D3- Texasgurl barely defeats Al. Might be a tie, might also be an Al win. All in all very close.
D4- Hermit wins with 42% of the vote. WMS gets around 20% with 7% for Dibble and 31% for Harry. With four candidates in play we will have to wait for preferences.
D5- SteveNick gets another term it will be close though. In the end it will come down to a battle of voter turnout. The UAC bastion in the West is split up but StevenNick has won before due to GOP pocket votes.

Colin, can I count those as the offical predictions of your newspaper? We both have covered the races extensively, it'll be interesting to see who picks better.

[Colin]

D1 Regular- Supersoulty wins with 63% of the vote in a landslide against The Bulldog
D1 Special- Adnrew wins with about 55% of the vote due to a higher number of Democrats in the old D1 and thus a better showing for True Democrat.
D2- I'm predicting an upset. Badnarikin04 has grown in the polls ever since the beginning of the race. I expect that growth to continue and lead him to a slim victory. Very close.
D3- Texasgurl barely defeats Al. Might be a tie, might also be an Al win. All in all very close.
D4- Hermit wins with 42% of the vote. WMS gets around 20% with 7% for Dibble and 31% for Harry. With four candidates in play we will have to wait for preferences.
D5- SteveNick gets another term it will be close though. In the end it will come down to a battle of voter turnout. The UAC bastion in the West is split up but StevenNick has won before due to GOP pocket votes.

Colin, can I count those as the offical predictions of your newspaper? We both have covered the races extensively, it'll be interesting to see who picks better.

No they are not my official predictions and I will not print any official predictions in my paper. We report the news only we don't delve into the prediction end of elections.

[Akno21]

D1 Regular- Supersoulty wins with 63% of the vote in a landslide against The Bulldog
D1 Special- Adnrew wins with about 55% of the vote due to a higher number of Democrats in the old D1 and thus a better showing for True Democrat.
D2- I'm predicting an upset. Badnarikin04 has grown in the polls ever since the beginning of the race. I expect that growth to continue and lead him to a slim victory. Very close.
D3- Texasgurl barely defeats Al. Might be a tie, might also be an Al win. All in all very close.
D4- Hermit wins with 42% of the vote. WMS gets around 20% with 7% for Dibble and 31% for Harry. With four candidates in play we will have to wait for preferences.
D5- SteveNick gets another term it will be close though. In the end it will come down to a battle of voter turnout. The UAC bastion in the West is split up but StevenNick has won before due to GOP pocket votes.

Colin, can I count those as the offical predictions of your newspaper? We both have covered the races extensively, it'll be interesting to see who picks better.

No they are not my official predictions and I will not print any official predictions in my paper. We report the news only we don't delve into the prediction end of elections.

All right. You guys won't make predictions and I won't make endorsements. Can't say there's not variety

[Colin]

D1 Regular- Supersoulty wins with 63% of the vote in a landslide against The Bulldog
D1 Special- Adnrew wins with about 55% of the vote due to a higher number of Democrats in the old D1 and thus a better showing for True Democrat.
D2- I'm predicting an upset. Badnarikin04 has grown in the polls ever since the beginning of the race. I expect that growth to continue and lead him to a slim victory. Very close.
D3- Texasgurl barely defeats Al. Might be a tie, might also be an Al win. All in all very close.
D4- Hermit wins with 42% of the vote. WMS gets around 20% with 7% for Dibble and 31% for Harry. With four candidates in play we will have to wait for preferences.
D5- SteveNick gets another term it will be close though. In the end it will come down to a battle of voter turnout. The UAC bastion in the West is split up but StevenNick has won before due to GOP pocket votes.

Colin, can I count those as the offical predictions of your newspaper? We both have covered the races extensively, it'll be interesting to see who picks better.

No they are not my official predictions and I will not print any official predictions in my paper. We report the news only we don't delve into the prediction end of elections.

All right. You guys won't make predictions and I won't make endorsements. Can't say there's not variety

Fine do what you want. We endorse you predict.

[Akno21]

Supersoulty will win while getting 55-60% of the vote.
True Democrat will win while getting 48-53%.
Siege will win while getting 60-65%.
Al will win while getting 50-55%.
Hermit will win while getting 45-50%.
Gabu will win while getting 50-55%.
Ilikeverin will win while getting 45-50%.

D1 Full- Right on
D1 Interim- Right on
D2- Off by 1.6%
D3- I got the winner right. Off by 34%.
D4- Counting Hermit as WMS, Off by 3.8%
D5- Right on
Midwest- Off by 5%.

I don't mean to brag, but I got all 6 races right if you count WMS as Hermit.

Counting WMS as Hermit, Phil got 3, Alcon got 4 of 6, Colin got 1 right, 2 if you say he picked WMS.

[minionofmidas]

Only read this thread just right now...wonder what got into your head about TexasGurl. I would have been very much surprised if this race had turned out any different.
Of course it's easy to speak with hindsight, but:
D1 is about what I expected, although I wouldn't have wanted to rule out a higher Soulty win.
The Special...I totally forgot that the old district is more Democratic. I probably would have guessed Andrew to win by slightly more than Soult, being slightly more moderate in my book and having the weaker opponent.
D2: I never thought Siege might lose.
D3: Yeah, well, as I said.
D4: I would have guessed on a narrow win by Harry.
D5: If forced to bet I'd have probably gone for a narrow StevenNick win, but I knew this would come down to the wire.

[Nym90]

So, who was the most accurate pollster this year? Who was our Mason-Dixon?

On the other hand, who was the Zogby of the midterm elections? :-)

[Gabu]

So, who was the most accurate pollster this year? Who was our Mason-Dixon?

On the other hand, who was the Zogby of the midterm elections? :-)

Well, here's a table of all of the polls that were done, courtesy of MANN:

[Akno21]

I'll count Hermit as WMS.
King Poll A, then B. A is the 11/25 one.

District 1:
Supersoulty 57
Bulldog 43

Gabu Poll -8
Akno "Poll" -10
King Avg -28 (-36, -20)

District 2:
Siege 67
Badnarikin04 27

Gabu Poll -10
King Avg -20 (-6, -34)
Akno "Poll" -22

District 3:
Al 84
TexasGurl 16

Akno "Poll" -50
King Avg -58 (-56, -60)
Gabu Poll -68

District 4
WMS 50
Harry 43

Gabu Poll -7
Akno "Poll" -7
King Avg -7(-5,-9)

District 5
Gabu 44
StevenNick 44

King Avg -14(-8,-20)
Gabu Avg -20
Akno Avg -24

Midwest
Ilikverin 50
Dabeav 40

Akno "Poll -10
King Avg -19(-27,-10)

Total
Akno, Off by 123, 20.5 per race
Gabu, Off by 113, 22.5 per race
King, Off by 146, 24.3 per race.

D3 made everyone look bad.

[Gabu]

Writing off District 3 as an outlier, the results instead look like this:

Akno: Off by 73 (14.6 per race)
Gabu: Off by 45 (11.25 per race)
King: Off by 88 (17.6 per race)

Hey, sweet, I was Atlasia's Mason-Dixon.

[Colin]

And National Atlasian/King was Atlasia's Zogby. Of course the Democrats did better in the election than in the polls because they have more members that aren't that active and thus probably didn't take the polls.

[Nym90]

King will now deny that his polls were wrong at all, and claim that there must have been voter fraud. He will tout the accuracy of his polls and say that the fact that he was wrong proves that there was something amiss with the results. :-)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Zoggy polls were the most innacurate

[Nym90]

Zoggy polls were the most innacurate

I'm sure this was due to massive fraud, and Zoggy will continue to stand by their findings.

[Akno21]

Writing off District 3 as an outlier, the results instead look like this:

Akno: Off by 73 (14.6 per race)
Gabu: Off by 45 (11.25 per race)
King: Off by 88 (17.6 per race)

Hey, sweet, I was Atlasia's Mason-Dixon.

My polling stunk, but my predictions were 7 for 7.

[Colin]

Writing off District 3 as an outlier, the results instead look like this:

Akno: Off by 73 (14.6 per race)
Gabu: Off by 45 (11.25 per race)
King: Off by 88 (17.6 per race)

Hey, sweet, I was Atlasia's Mason-Dixon.

My polling stunk, but my predictions were 7 for 7.

Well my/King's poll was the worse. Still don't know why.

[Jake]

Writing off District 3 as an outlier, the results instead look like this:

Akno: Off by 73 (14.6 per race)
Gabu: Off by 45 (11.25 per race)
King: Off by 88 (17.6 per race)

Hey, sweet, I was Atlasia's Mason-Dixon.

My polling stunk, but my predictions were 7 for 7.

Well my/King's poll was the worse. Still don't know why.

Alot of people just come back to vote,  so you miss them.

[Colin]

Writing off District 3 as an outlier, the results instead look like this:

Akno: Off by 73 (14.6 per race)
Gabu: Off by 45 (11.25 per race)
King: Off by 88 (17.6 per race)

Hey, sweet, I was Atlasia's Mason-Dixon.

Gabu even you were off by 11.25 points a race. Thats not very good even with a small voting populace.

[Nym90]

Writing off District 3 as an outlier, the results instead look like this:

Akno: Off by 73 (14.6 per race)
Gabu: Off by 45 (11.25 per race)
King: Off by 88 (17.6 per race)

Hey, sweet, I was Atlasia's Mason-Dixon.

My polling stunk, but my predictions were 7 for 7.

Well my/King's poll was the worse. Still don't know why.

Alot of people just come back to vote, so you miss them.

Indeed, such folks get missed in polls of likely voters, but not in polls of registered voters. Just like real life. :-)

In addition, none of our polls use an actual random sample, it's a self-selecting sample, which as Vorlon will tell you, is always of sketchy reliability.