If the electoral college trend were to hold for next 100 years
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  If the electoral college trend were to hold for next 100 years
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Author Topic: If the electoral college trend were to hold for next 100 years  (Read 8381 times)
King
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« on: December 09, 2004, 02:02:36 AM »

JUST FOR LAUGHS

Highly unlikely, but if the same states loss/gained the same EVs every census for the next 100 years, Election 2104's map would look like this:

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A18
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« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2004, 02:04:11 AM »

Ha! If the 2104 election results were the same as the 2004 election results, who would win?
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King
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2004, 02:05:48 AM »

Bush would have 363 EVs, Kerry would have 175...
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2004, 04:31:30 AM »

JUST FOR LAUGHS

Highly unlikely, but if the same states loss/gained the same EVs every census for the next 100 years, Election 2104's map would look like this:



Georgia with 4X the reps as NY? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahaha
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Erc
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2004, 01:36:03 PM »

PA with 3 EV's...
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Akno21
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2004, 09:04:36 PM »


Everyone can argue about PA-01 now! Even people from Pittsburgh.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2004, 09:06:52 PM »


Everyone can argue about PA-01 now! Even people from Pittsburgh.

Could you imagine the excitement? I have a feeling that if it was all one CD that IrishDem and myself would still be the only members from PA arguing about it.
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2004, 09:23:40 PM »

For those interested, here is the list of the largest states (very entertaining):

1.) California (65)
2.) Texas (54)
3.) Florida (47)
4.) Georgia (35)
5.) Arizona (30)
6.) North Carolina (25)
7.) Colorado (19)
8.) Nevada (15)
" " New Jersey
10.) Virginia (13)
11.) Massachusetts (12)
12.) Illinois (11)
" "   Missouri
" "   New York
" "   Tennessee
" "   Washington
17.) Maryland (10)
" "   Minnesota
" "   Ohio
20.) Alabama (9)
" "   Louisiana
22.) Kentucky (Cool
" "   South Carolina
24.) Iowa (7)
" "   Michigan
" "   Oregon
27.) Arkansas (6)
" "   Kansas
29.) Nebraska (5)
" "   New Mexico
" "   Utah
" "   West Virginia
33.) Hawaii (4)
" "   Idaho
" "   Maine
" "   New Hampshire
" "   Rhode Island
38.) Alaska (3)
" "   Connecticut
" "   Delaware
" "   District of Columbia
" "   Indiana
" "   Mississippi
" "   Montana
" "   North Dakota
" "   Oklahoma
" "   Pennsylvania
" "   South Dakota
" "   Vermont
" "   Wisconsin
" "   Wyoming

What I'd also like to see: these trends continued for more than 10 years...now THAT would be a map.

California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Georgia: 537
All those other useless states: 1
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Colin
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2004, 09:24:23 PM »

PA with as many people as Alaska, Vermont, or Wyoming. I can never see that happening the decline will stop before it gets to that point.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2004, 02:27:28 PM »

PA with as many people as Alaska, Vermont, or Wyoming. I can never see that happening the decline will stop before it gets to that point.

No decline just growing slowly.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2004, 07:37:30 PM »

What sort of model are you using, anyways?
Linear is bad
Exponential is bad
Logistical is less bad, but still bad
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Alcon
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2004, 09:04:25 PM »

What sort of model are you using, anyways?
Linear is bad
Exponential is bad
Logistical is less bad, but still bad


Linear. That's the point - it is just for fun.
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2004, 09:43:49 PM »

I would love that as long as the conservative to liberal ratio in those states remained the same
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2004, 09:46:13 PM »

The top 7 states would equal 275 ev's

scary thought there
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2004, 10:28:04 PM »

Fun with logarithms!



Kiki

Red: change
Blue: no change
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King
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« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2004, 10:34:40 PM »

Wow, 10 EVs in Wisconsin is quite a change from the 10 EVs it had before Tongue
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2004, 11:02:26 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2004, 11:05:23 PM by Alcon »

Fun with logarithms!



Kiki

Red: change
Blue: no change

What is the 3 (2) thing for South Dakota?

By the way, gotta love the changes in...well..Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Montana, Mississippi, and Connecticut. Wink
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2004, 11:31:30 AM »

Fun with logarithms!



Kiki

Red: change
Blue: no change

What is the 3 (2) thing for South Dakota?

They ended up rounding to 2, but the minimum is 3.

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They have changed since 1980, y'know Wink Smiley
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Colin
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2004, 04:36:01 PM »

Fun with logarithms!



Kiki

Red: change
Blue: no change
California with 72 Electoral Votes? Thats crazy. Their will have to be something done about that before California basically controls the Presidential Election, and no the answer isn't to get rid of the system. Their should be a cap on how many Electoral votes a state can have, say no more than 60 or 55 something like that, that would stop the Electoral Vote takeover by large states.
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Akno21
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2004, 04:41:22 PM »

Fun with logarithms!



Kiki

Red: change
Blue: no change
California with 72 Electoral Votes? Thats crazy. Their will have to be something done about that before California basically controls the Presidential Election, and no the answer isn't to get rid of the system. Their should be a cap on how many Electoral votes a state can have, say no more than 60 or 55 something like that, that would stop the Electoral Vote takeover by large states.

That would involve disenfranchising California voters even more than they already are.
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Bugs
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« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2004, 01:26:09 AM »

A congressional district system like Maine and Nebraska might have to be imposed on large states.
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Harry
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« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2004, 12:50:12 PM »

A congressional district system like Maine and Nebraska might have to be imposed on large states.
on small states that might be OK, but on large ones it would create HUGE gerrymandering by the party in power.
A proportional system might be better on large states.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #22 on: December 14, 2004, 12:42:39 PM »

A congressional district system like Maine and Nebraska might have to be imposed on large states.
on small states that might be OK, but on large ones it would create HUGE gerrymandering by the party in power.
A proportional system might be better on large states.

Or yiu could start adding more seats.
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Platypus
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« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2006, 03:50:53 PM »

Split Cali in three.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #24 on: December 04, 2006, 03:05:42 PM »

Not that I see this map happening, but the notion that the three largest states on verin's map (CA, TX, FL) are all more than twice as large (CA almost 4x !) as the next biggest three states (NY, NC and GA) is kinda scary.
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