NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Guderian]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

[J. J.]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Actually, Rasmussen generic ballot has put the R's ahead for at least a year.  The D's were lower over the summer than at the 2010 elections.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Actually, Rasmussen generic ballot has put the R's ahead for at least a year.  The D's were lower over the summer than at the 2010 elections.

Rasmussen? Is that a polling company? Have they any relation with NATO's secretary general?

[J. J.]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Actually, Rasmussen generic ballot has put the R's ahead for at least a year.  The D's were lower over the summer than at the 2010 elections.

Rasmussen? Is that a polling company? Have they any relation with NATO's secretary general?

Yes, one of the more accurate ones.  You data is from from where, the Twilight Zone.  The Democrats have not led since 2009.

[J. J.]

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

The same thing can apply to their supporters.
 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Couple of points:

1. The district is not entirely Jewish (it isn't even majority Jewish; working off the ACS data I posted way up thread, only 68.6% of the district is white and Italian and Irish ancestries came out at 20.7%. Of course there can be double counting in the latter, but my point isn't hard to grasp, I hope), not all Jews in the district are Orthodox, and not all Orthodox Jews in the district are the sort that wear those nifty black hats and vote with such remarkable discipline when an election is deemed to matter. So you can't just point to specifically Jewish (and by that you actually mean specifically Orthodox and/or Soviet and so on; basically an Other, I suppose) and pin this defeat on that. Obviously when a key swing block says 'fyck you', there's trouble ahead. But it is not enough on its own, not when its perfectly possible for a Democrat to win this district while losing such voters by miles.

2. It's not an affluent suburban district either, even if does have a few affluent residential areas here and there. This is a basically working class district with some richer parts and a massive immigrant population (only a minority of its inhabitants speak English as a first language ffs). It's certainly not poverty stricken and is less working class (significantly so) than most of the districts it borders, but then it's in Brooklyn and Queens.

[Wonkish1]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

[J. J.]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

The last time the D's were ahead on the generic ballot, it was June 2009.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

but you have to back to here to see it:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

[J. J.]

Anybody have the racial make up of the district, especially the Queens section?

[Sbane]

By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

[DrScholl]

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

The vote patterns pretty much show that the population there is a lot different than the one in NY-9, it's not something I just made up. These are two separate places, they are not equal. But, you can believe whatever you like.

Not everyone in the district that is conservative is Orthodox Jewish, there are other conservative Democrats all throughout it. There are also Republican pockets in Queens.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

[Torie]

By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

[Keystone Phil]

I'm glad px is trusting PPP again! We know how the hacks on the other side were skeptical over the past few weeks when...well, let's be blunt...their findings weren't benefitting their side.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm glad px is trusting PPP again! We know how the hacks on the other side were skeptical over the past few weeks when...well, let's be blunt...their findings weren't benefitting their side.

I don't know what you're talking about but if you're speaking about me show when I said that I don't trust them.

[Sbane]

By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

In Carson City it was actually 50%.

[Wonkish1]

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

So your response is to post an admitted Democrat polling outfit and then say some bull crap about how Dems could take the house. Do you even have a clue how much extremely harder that is for 2012 than at any point in the last 2 decades? Some of the most important news coming out of Redistricting is PVI's of the median districts. Do you realize that you would have trudge through quite a few of R +5 districts before you could take it back?

Listen to your own best analyst. According to Charlie Cook "extremely unlikely" that Dems could take the house in 12. And they are "very challenged" in ever taking the house this decade.

The house is gone for you, finished, and your not getting it back anytime soon.

[J. J.]

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

Well, first of all, the question was:

Would you rather that more Democrats or more Republicans were elected to Congress in the next election? Would you rather that more Democrats or more Republicans were elected to Congress in the next election?

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/8/4

That is not a "Who would you vote for," question.  It has some value, but it isn't straight forward.

Second, the result is more than a month old, so you are not really saying anything new, even on PPP.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

So your response is to post an admitted Democrat polling outfit and then say some bull crap about how Dems could take the house. Do you even have a clue how much extremely harder that is for 2012 than at any point in the last 2 decades? Some of the most important news coming out of Redistricting is PVI's of the median districts. Do you realize that you would have trudge through quite a few of R +5 districts before you could take it back?

Listen to your own best analyst. According to Charlie Cook "extremely unlikely" that Dems could take the house in 12. And they are "very challenged" in ever taking the house this decade.

The house is gone for you, finished, and your not getting it back anytime soon.

You need to change your talking points. After two cycles and a bunch of special elections where they were the most accurate outfit of all, the "admitted Democratic polling outfit" one doesn't work anymore.

Hack.

[DrScholl]

The PPP bashing is beyond old, it's really not even worth responded to and should be ignored.

[Tender Branson]

The PPP bashing is beyond old, it's really not even worth responded to and should be ignored.

PPP already regrets having asked about this Socialist Workers Party dude.

I could have told them before that he won't get 4% ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[NY Jew]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

I know you couldn't mean something like when I predicted that this would be won based on marriage.

though you could mean this prediction (I guess the moral is don't give advise that only works for you)

I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.

[NY Jew]

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

The same thing can apply to their supporters.
 

this is many times a true statement which is why Turner did better then the polls had him (Orthodox Jews are always underestimated in the polls Russians usually are too)

[BigSkyBob]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

It might be the lowest in the country.  The only districts I've found that are even close are elsewhere in New York.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The anti-Obama sentiment is still there, for NY-09 purposes, especially given his recent anti-Israel turn in foreign policy.

But that's not the issue.  Special elections are usually won on machine strength.  The Democrats have it in NY-09.  Republicans don't.  So I doubt the special election will be close, as long as it isn't held on election day in November.  Even if it is, my guess is the Republican candidate will do better than they have against Weiner in the recent past, but still lose by low double digits.

I would have been in  near 100% agreement with this call.