PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

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I quoted the wrong thing. I meant to quote this...

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[Speed of Sound]

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I quoted the wrong thing. I meant to quote this...

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there you go! much better. I like my quote better anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Talk about a wrap up that I couldn't have even imagined - It's now guarenteed - Swann/Matthews 2006  Mike Turzai has ended his campaign for Lt. Governor.

[Keystone Phil]

ABC's This Week will have an exclusive interview with Lynn Swann this Sunday.

[Keystone Phil]

As was pointed out in another thread, the most recent Quinnipiac poll shows Rendell up by twelve points.

In other news, Jim Panyard has ended his long shot Gubernatorial campaign.


In somewhat related news (something Flyers and I take interest in) State Rep. George Kenney is rumored to be considering retirement. If it happens this will be a Dem pickup.

[Speed of Sound]

Im still hoping for a prominent candidate to challenge that isnt Rendell or Swann, preferrably third party. Hey, I can hope, cant I?

[Keystone Phil]

Im still hoping for a prominent candidate to challenge that isnt Rendell or Swann, preferrably third party. Hey, I can hope, cant I?

That doesn't happen much here. Peg Luksik (Constitution party) in '94 and '98 is a good example of what you're talking about but I can't see anyone emerging this time. Who knows though? Luksik wasn't a some sort of celebrity before the campaign but gained strength during the race. Some independent might pop up that could surprise us.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell might actually receive atleast nominal primary opposition - http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/state/all-a8_5panyardfeb15,0,6076795.story

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. We haven't used this since February? Well, here's some general news about the campaign - Rendell's quest for the west - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_451336.html

[Keystone Phil]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060521/ap_on_el_ge/black_republicans

[Speed of Sound]

http://www.pennlive.com/news/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/114665282618120.xml&coll=1

Apparently, Diamond's dad was in a standoff with police and fired shots. Is this going to affect Russ' campaign at all?

, Well, the good thing is that its an early event, so itll have less effect. But its not a good way for us to start.

[Keystone Phil]

According to GrassrootsPA.com, former candidate Bill Scranton was trying to gain the open PA GOP chairmanship but was blocked by Swann. In other chairman news, Cambria county GOP chairman Robert Gleason has been selected as the new state leader and Centre county's Joyce Haas is the new Vice Chair.

[J. J.]

According to GrassrootsPA.com, former candidate Bill Scranton was trying to gain the open PA GOP chairmanship but was blocked by Swann. In other chairman news, Cambria county GOP chairman Robert Gleason has been selected as the new state leader and Centre county's Joyce Haas is the new Vice Chair.

I've known them both.

[Keystone Phil]

According to GrassrootsPA.com, former candidate Bill Scranton was trying to gain the open PA GOP chairmanship but was blocked by Swann. In other chairman news, Cambria county GOP chairman Robert Gleason has been selected as the new state leader and Centre county's Joyce Haas is the new Vice Chair.

I've known them both.

You are welcome to comment further. 

[J. J.]

According to GrassrootsPA.com, former candidate Bill Scranton was trying to gain the open PA GOP chairmanship but was blocked by Swann. In other chairman news, Cambria county GOP chairman Robert Gleason has been selected as the new state leader and Centre county's Joyce Haas is the new Vice Chair.

I've known them both.

You are welcome to comment further. 

Haas, if I'm thinking of the same person, was a candidate for one of the row offices in 1983 in Centre County (which she lost).  I was impressed with her; she seemed like a hard worker.

Robert "Robbie" Gleason is the son of the longest serving County Chaiman in the 20th Century, Robert A. "Chief" Gleason, Sr in the 20th Century.  He ran for State Senate in 1980, loosing to Mark Singel.  Interestingly, he lost the heavily Democratic part of his district, Westmoreland County, by about 600 votes.  He lost the less heavily Democratic area of his home county, Cambria by roughly 10,000 votes (his father was chair). 

He was the Secretary of the Commonwealth in Thornburgh's second term, and lost a previous attempt to be state chair.

Between 1980 and  2006, the Cambria County GOP, with one exception, lost a series of elections.  The high point was elected two commissioners in 1991.

In terms of fund raising, they did none.  There candidate screening consisted of two questions:  Were you ever convicted of a crime?  Are you gay?  (I answered no to both and passed the test).

He probably would not have been my first choice.

[Keystone Phil]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

[Smash255]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

[Smash255]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

I'm not basing it off of Quinnipiac as much as the rest of the polls.  Also keep in mind both the 94 & 02 elections didn't involve incumbents, and open elections tradiotnally are more likely to swing back & forth in the run up to Election Day than a race with a sitting Incumbent.

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

I'm not basing it off of Quinnipiac as much as the rest of the polls.  Also keep in mind both the 94 & 02 elections didn't involve incumbents, and open elections tradiotnally are more likely to swing back & forth in the run up to Election Day than a race with a sitting Incumbent.

I know the incumbent factor, but these things shift, greatly, at this point.  Even 1982, Ertel was trailing badly, and closed within the last month (and almost won it).

[Virginian87]

Two questions for the Pennsylvania crowd:

1.  How's Rendell doing numbers-wise in Western Pennsylvania and Metro Pittsburgh, Swann's so-called base?

2.  Has "Fast Eddie" challenged Swann to a debate yet?  Or is it the other way around?

[Keystone Phil]

2.  Has "Fast Eddie" challenged Swann to a debate yet?  Or is it the other way around?

I haven't heard any serious debate challenges yet. They both would want it because Swann needs to rebound (a debate will let him put some ideas out there) but Rendell sees a debate as a way to finish off Swann (Rendell is regarded as the better speaker).

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

Yeah, I would say it's safe to say that the last time you idiots thought that, Swann came back. Swann's in some trouble now but he can surprise.

[Virginian87]

Yeah, I would say it's safe to say that the last time you idiots thought that, Swann came back. Swann's in some trouble now but he can surprise.

Pardon me for not paying close enough attention to Pennsylvania politics, but why is Swann in trouble?  I thought he was going strong in Pittsburgh and especially in the "Conservative T" of central Pennsylvania.  In January and February, it seemed to me from the press coverage that Rendell was the one in trouble (perhaps it was because the Steelers won the Super Bowl). 

I actually thought the race would be closer than it is now.  Did Swann make a verbal gaffe of some sort, or is it more that the voters did not know much about him?  Did Rendell do something particularly noteworthy to boost his numbers?

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I would say it's safe to say that the last time you idiots thought that, Swann came back. Swann's in some trouble now but he can surprise.

Pardon me for not paying close enough attention to Pennsylvania politics, but why is Swann in trouble?  I thought he was going strong in Pittsburgh and especially in the "Conservative T" of central Pennsylvania.  In January and February, it seemed to me from the press coverage that Rendell was the one in trouble (perhaps it was because the Steelers won the Super Bowl). 

In Janurary and February, Rendell was the one in trouble but it's the exact opposite now. Swann's campaign is weak and, for whatever reason, Rendell's approval is shooting through the roof. I could understand a poll or two showing him up a lot but now he's up everywhere. Rendell was on TV for awhile and now he has disappeared but at least he got up. Swann hasn't been on TV around here (or anywhere, I think) at all. His fundraising was always going to be weak compared to Rendell but it is even worse than expected.

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No gaffes by Swann. He's just been invisible on the campaign trail. Rendell hasn't done anything amazing though. You can even asks the Dems/people like Speed Of Sound about what he has done that would drive him up and I can almost guarentee they will say the same. This couldn't be all about what going on nationally either.

[Smash255]

2.  Has "Fast Eddie" challenged Swann to a debate yet?  Or is it the other way around?

I haven't heard any serious debate challenges yet. They both would want it because Swann needs to rebound (a debate will let him put some ideas out there) but Rendell sees a debate as a way to finish off Swann (Rendell is regarded as the better speaker).

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

Yeah, I would say it's safe to say that the last time you idiots thought that, Swann came back. Swann's in some trouble now but he can surprise.

However, keep in mind that Rendell is in much better shape now when those other comments were made.  The approval polls and matchup polls are all much better for Rendell now than when the original locked up comments were made.