PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Speed of Sound]

Hey Phil, were you at the Harrisburg Tea Party on Monday?

No. I've only been out to Harrisburg once and that was about two years ago.

ah. You should have been there. It was fun.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like we have two third party candidacies now - http://www.hagan4gov.com/index_001.htm

[Keystone Phil]

Swann is backed by the Chester County GOP - http://www.lynnswannteam88.com/Video/View.aspx?ID=22

[danwxman]

Looks like we have two third party candidacies now - http://www.hagan4gov.com/index_001.htm

He might have a better chance if he learns to spell Harrisburg correctly.

[Moooooo]

rofl.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell is still in trouble; Scranton takes lead in GOP primary

http://politicspa.com/temp/keystone1105.htm

[Sarnstrom]

A new Rasmussen Reports Poll:
500 likely voters

Lynn Swann (R) 36%
Ed Rendell (D) 50%

Bill Scranton III (R) 39%
Ed Rendell (D) 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Pennsylvania%20Governor%20November%2012.htm

[Keystone Phil]

I saw that one the other day. I don't buy the fact that Scranton is losing by eight and Swann is losing by fourteen. It should be the other way around. Swann would be a powerful force, especially out west, in the general whereas Scranton is just...he's just there. I'm glad they're no longer wasting time asking how people feel about Piccola. The man is a joke. He's constantly around 5%. I can't wait until he drops out.

[Max Power]

I pray Scranton is the GOP nominee, that way his "cult" status is brought to the state's attention.

[Keystone Phil]

I pray Scranton is the GOP nominee, that way his "cult" status is brought to the state's attention.

That's exactly why the man won't be the nominee. I fear he still has some influence over some of the older state committee members but it's going to come down to a conservative values fight. Scranton can't win there. I don't really buy that he is in the lead for the nomination at this point either. Sure he just announced and has been criss-crossing the state. He's a visible candidate but Swann probably still has a slight edge. Wait until his official announcement.

[TeePee4Prez]

I pray Scranton is the GOP nominee, that way his "cult" status is brought to the state's attention.

That's exactly why the man won't be the nominee. I fear he still has some influence over some of the older state committee members but it's going to come down to a conservative values fight. Scranton can't win there. I don't really buy that he is in the lead for the nomination at this point either. Sure he just announced and has been criss-crossing the state. He's a visible candidate but Swann probably still has a slight edge. Wait until his official announcement.

I don't know.  From what I've been hearing, I think Scranton could do the most damage in Southeastern PA.  Usually, the Heinz-Specter wing of the Republican party is usually unstoppable in PA politics.  Swann will be called out fast.  He is a nothing candidate with a star name.  People are sick of Schwarzenegger and Swann very much fits that mold. 

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know.  From what I've been hearing, I think Scranton could do the most damage in Southeastern PA.  Usually, the Heinz-Specter wing of the Republican party is usually unstoppable in PA politics.  Swann will be called out fast.  He is a nothing candidate with a star name.  People are sick of Schwarzenegger and Swann very much fits that mold. 

How are they unstoppable? Did you see the Senate primary in '04? Do you really think moderate to liberal Republicans dominate? The state committee stage will be tough. Swann can win the primary.

[TeePee4Prez]

I don't know.  From what I've been hearing, I think Scranton could do the most damage in Southeastern PA.  Usually, the Heinz-Specter wing of the Republican party is usually unstoppable in PA politics.  Swann will be called out fast.  He is a nothing candidate with a star name.  People are sick of Schwarzenegger and Swann very much fits that mold. 

How are they unstoppable? Did you see the Senate primary in '04? Do you really think moderate to liberal Republicans dominate? The state committee stage will be tough. Swann can win the primary.

I'm talking about in the general election.  Heinz-Ridge-Specter Republicans scare me the most electorally in general elections, not necessarily on policy.  Pat Toomey would have gone down in flames had hem made the general election.  Specter got a lot of votes that would have easily went to Hoeffel had Toomey been the nominee.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know.  From what I've been hearing, I think Scranton could do the most damage in Southeastern PA.  Usually, the Heinz-Specter wing of the Republican party is usually unstoppable in PA politics.  Swann will be called out fast.  He is a nothing candidate with a star name.  People are sick of Schwarzenegger and Swann very much fits that mold. 

How are they unstoppable? Did you see the Senate primary in '04? Do you really think moderate to liberal Republicans dominate? The state committee stage will be tough. Swann can win the primary.

I'm talking about in the general election.  Heinz-Ridge-Specter Republicans scare me the most electorally in general elections, not necessarily on policy.  Pat Toomey would have gone down in flames had hem made the general election.  Specter got a lot of votes that would have easily went to Hoeffel had Toomey been the nominee.

How can you say that? The Lehigh Valley would go for Toomey (went for Rendell in '02) and the west accepted him last year. He was a force out there and that doesn't mean that just Republicans saw it. Just because SEPA doesn't welcome someone with open arms doesn't mean that candidate would lose.

Also, a good amount of Specter votes would have went for Hoeffel had Toomey been the nominee but Toomey would also pick up Clymer votes.

[Max Power]

This is one of my favorite things about Pennsylvania politics. Things change so fast. I remember about half-way through 2004, newspapers all across the state were mentioning Toomey as a potential gubernatorial candidate, and how Barbara Hafer was considered the shoe-in Democratic nominee v. Santorum.

And Phil, did you ever consider starting a petition for Bruce Castor? You could link to it on the SEPTARS site, you could get other sites to link to it, and you'd have over a thousand signatures in no time.

[Keystone Phil]

And Phil, did you ever consider starting a petition for Bruce Castor? You could link to it on the SEPTARS site, you could get other sites to link to it, and you'd have over a thousand signatures in no time.

Castor is not going to run. That's been over and done with for months. I'm focused on Swann as the nominee.

[Max Power]

And Phil, did you ever consider starting a petition for Bruce Castor? You could link to it on the SEPTARS site, you could get other sites to link to it, and you'd have over a thousand signatures in no time.

Castor is not going to run. That's been over and done with for months. I'm focused on Swann as the nominee.

I mean for Lt. Governor or what ever it was you were touting him for.

[Keystone Phil]

I mean for Lt. Governor or what ever it was you were touting him for.

I wanted him for Governor but that never happened. Lt. Governor won't work either.

[Keystone Phil]

It's weird how we were talking about the committee endorsement process and this news broke - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/opinion/columnists/whispers/s_393706.html


Toomey for State Committee Chair? Now that would be something. Think about it - He'd have a whole new sense of power when it comes to races in PA especially the upcoming Gubernatorial race and would be able to keep in touch in an even greater sense with the party for his future run for office (very likely Senate run in 2010). I'd love to see it happen but the problems remain that being head of the Club for Growth is a powerful position that is not easy to walk away from and he'd have to put up a fight (though he could win) against the current establishment that isn't really too fond of him. But if he does run and later wins, people like Scranton won't be too happy. That would be a clear problem for the old moderate Republican establishment.

[Keystone Phil]

Some big stories...

"Give Ed Rendell what he wants!" - http://www.lynnswannteam88.com/Video/View.aspx?ID=23  (Watch whole video)


Committee votes in favor of Lt. Gov. nominee being chosen by Gov. candidate - http://www.kywnewsradio.com/news_archives_detail.cfm?newsitemid=50517

My opinion: I hate the Lt. Governor primary. I wanted the Gubernatorial and Lt. Gubernatorial candidates to run on a ticket in the primary. I initially strongly favored this legislation but with a closer look I am less enthusiatic. It seems like there would be a primary for Governor and then whoever is the nominee would pick their running mate. I guess it's ok but not what I wanted at first.


And most importantly...

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_1116.htm

Rendell leads Scranton by 2%, Swann by 3% and Piccola by 9% (he can't be down by just nine points).

Rendell approve 46%  disapprove 43%

Swann winning the GOP primary 38% to Scranton's 34%. Piccola at 17% (way too high).

[danwxman]

I don't know.  From what I've been hearing, I think Scranton could do the most damage in Southeastern PA.  Usually, the Heinz-Specter wing of the Republican party is usually unstoppable in PA politics.  Swann will be called out fast.  He is a nothing candidate with a star name.  People are sick of Schwarzenegger and Swann very much fits that mold. 

How are they unstoppable? Did you see the Senate primary in '04? Do you really think moderate to liberal Republicans dominate? The state committee stage will be tough. Swann can win the primary.

I'm talking about in the general election.  Heinz-Ridge-Specter Republicans scare me the most electorally in general elections, not necessarily on policy.  Pat Toomey would have gone down in flames had hem made the general election.  Specter got a lot of votes that would have easily went to Hoeffel had Toomey been the nominee.

How can you say that? The Lehigh Valley would go for Toomey (went for Rendell in '02) and the west accepted him last year. He was a force out there and that doesn't mean that just Republicans saw it. Just because SEPA doesn't welcome someone with open arms doesn't mean that candidate would lose.

Also, a good amount of Specter votes would have went for Hoeffel had Toomey been the nominee but Toomey would also pick up Clymer votes.

You know, for all your claiming that the Lehigh Valley is "trending Republican" there sure was quite a few Democratic victories in the past election.

[Keystone Phil]

You know, for all your claiming that the Lehigh Valley is "trending Republican" there sure was quite a few Democratic victories in the past election.

You think the Lehigh Valley would have supported Hoeffel over Toomey? Face it, dan - your time in the Lehigh Valley is pretty much finished. All your party looks to are two overrated State Representatives. Joe Union isn't running the show anymore and it's not a socially liberal area either.

[danwxman]

You know, for all your claiming that the Lehigh Valley is "trending Republican" there sure was quite a few Democratic victories in the past election.

You think the Lehigh Valley would have supported Hoeffel over Toomey? Face it, dan - your time in the Lehigh Valley is pretty much finished. All your party looks to are two overrated State Representatives. Joe Union isn't running the show anymore and it's not a socially liberal area either.

Stop putting words in my mouth you imbecile. I merely stated the Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley this past election. That can't be refuted.

[TeePee4Prez]

You know, for all your claiming that the Lehigh Valley is "trending Republican" there sure was quite a few Democratic victories in the past election.

You think the Lehigh Valley would have supported Hoeffel over Toomey? Face it, dan - your time in the Lehigh Valley is pretty much finished. All your party looks to are two overrated State Representatives. Joe Union isn't running the show anymore and it's not a socially liberal area either.

Stop putting words in my mouth you imbecile. I merely stated the Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley this past election. That can't be refuted.

The Bush Adminstration is providing a nice assist for us in that region RIGHT NOW.  We should have won the PA 16 State Senate Seat because we had a great candidate in Jennifer Mann.  The Pat Browne DUI thing blew up in her face and cost her.  Had that election been held today, I think Mann would have won despite that.  After Mann, Rooney, and Grucela, we have a dire lack of talent in that region. 

Phil, I know Joe Union isn't running the show there, but neither is the Diocese of Allentown.  It is a tossup area and more a matter of quality of candidate running and campaign dollars, not ideology.   

[Jake]

Stop putting words in my mouth you imbecile. I merely stated the Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley this past election. That can't be refuted.

Not really. Except for Kerry winning, the GOP pretty much won everything else competitive. Dent won here, Specter won here, and the special elections for the vacant Senate and House seats went our way.