How many House seats will Democrats gain in 2012?

[Mr.Phips]

With Democrats having lost so many seats in 2010, it would be almost impossible for them to fall further, especially given the fact that the popular House vote will be at worst, split.  Republicans have vulnerable seats all over the country except for the Deep South, and there isnt that much that can be done in redistrticting since Republicans already hold so many seats. 

[freepcrusher]

depends what happens between now and then

For now I would say

Worst Case Scenario is 15 (similar to 1996)
Best Case Scenario is 75 (similar to 1948)

I say that high teens low 20s sounds like a reasonable pickup.

[Mr.Phips]

depends what happens between now and then

For now I would say

Worst Case Scenario is 15 (similar to 1996)
Best Case Scenario is 75 (similar to 1948)

I say that high teens low 20s sounds like a reasonable pickup.

Im thinking around 16 seats, same as what Reagan picked up in 1984.  That would bring Democrats to 210 seats, enough to make sure nothing passes the House without bipartisan support. 

[Napoleon]

20-25 is my prediction; redistricting will shore up many incumbents. Gaining seats isn't the only benefit of a gerrymander.

[Nichlemn]

With Democrats having lost so many seats in 2010, it would be almost impossible for them to fall further, especially given the fact that the popular House vote will be at worst, split.  Republicans have vulnerable seats all over the country except for the Deep South, and there isnt that much that can be done in redistrticting since Republicans already hold so many seats. 

It's never impossible to fall further - see 1930-1936, 1974 followed by 1976 (albeit only by one seat), 2006 followed by 2008. Granted, House Republicans have lost a lot of popularity recently so it does appear harder for them to make more gains than it did in November 2010. But there's still a non-negligible chance of a double-dip recession that sinks Obama and more House seats with it.

I think people here drastically underestimate the variance of the distribution of possible House results. A mean of somewhere between 20-30 pickups sounds about right, but the standard deviation is probably about 15-20 seats. If we assume a normal distribution, there's about a 5% chance of more Republican gains but also about a 1% chance that Democrats pick up more seats than they lost in 2010. However, you could argue that a normal distribution is a poor approximation. I think it underestimates the chances of a 1932, a 1948 or a 1976 type result. Imagine a model with fat tails and a "bump" around the "status-quo" results.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'll say 15-25.

[Frodo]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

[Lief 🗽]

30-40.

[Franzl]

Not enough to take back the House, IMO.

[memphis]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

Hard to see them not gaining at least one seat in Texas with the state getting four new seats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

How about Virginia?
They could also gain seats in Alabama and South Carolina if the DOJ insists for a second VRA seat, but that's a big if.

At the beginning of the year I'd say Democrats would gain around 15 seats. But with Republican's popularity sinking fast and the Ryan budget, I could see them gaining 20-25 and retaking narrowly the House.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

How about Virginia?
They could also gain seats in Alabama and South Carolina if the DOJ insists for a second VRA seat, but that's a big if.

At the beginning of the year I'd say Democrats would gain around 15 seats. But with Republican's popularity sinking fast and the Ryan budget, I could see them gaining 20-25 and retaking narrowly the House.

Oh yeah, I forgot about Texas. I don't see any of the seats in Virginia being particularly competitive.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

They're going to work on it next month, but odds are they're going to punt it to next year, because the Senate Democrats want to pass a 7-4 map, and the House Republicans want to pass an 8-3 map. Virginia's Democratic voters are distributed such that you can make three solidly Democratic seats and distribute the remainder among the other districts.

[Mr.Phips]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

Im not counting on any Democratic gains in the South outside of maybe AR-02 and a new black majority AL-02 and SC-07(both would be easy to do) that are forced by the Justice Department.
Im not counting Virginia, Florida, or West Virginia as part of the South. 

[Dgov]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

If you go for a really ugly Richmond-Norfolk Dem Pack, you can draw 8 McCain Seats at least, although they'd be like 53% McCain, which is not insurmountable for at Virginia Democrat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

If you go for a really ugly Richmond-Norfolk Dem Pack, you can draw 8 McCain Seats at least, although they'd be like 53% McCain, which is not insurmountable for at Virginia Democrat.

Why would the Virginia Senate approve that?

[Dgov]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

Hard to see them not gaining at least one seat in Texas with the state getting four new seats.

If they do gain a seat, it's probably going to be in the decidedly non-Southern Portion (I.e. San Antonio or South Texas).

[Dgov]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

If you go for a really ugly Richmond-Norfolk Dem Pack, you can draw 8 McCain Seats at least, although they'd be like 53% McCain, which is not insurmountable for at Virginia Democrat.

Why would the Virginia Senate approve that?

I was pointing out that its possible to create an 8-3 Map in Virginia, not that it was likely.

[bgwah]

I don't know. I guess it's not impossible for them to take back the House, but I suppose it's probably more complicated than just winning 25 seats, considering they will be losing some to redistricting...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

If you go for a really ugly Richmond-Norfolk Dem Pack, you can draw 8 McCain Seats at least, although they'd be like 53% McCain, which is not insurmountable for at Virginia Democrat.

Why would the Virginia Senate approve that?

The Dem majority is tenuous at best, which is why I said it'll probably get punted to next year. The Republicans have nothing to lose in doing that, really.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Gain seats..... They will lose seats. Indiana 2 (very high probability) and possibly Indiana 7 (if the GOP decides to be ambitious as I personally think we can beat Carson with Rokita.

[freepcrusher]

Gain seats..... They will lose seats. Indiana 2 (very high probability) and possibly Indiana 7 (if the GOP decides to be ambitious as I personally think we can beat Carson with Rokita.

that's just two seats. Any seats we MIGHT lose (which is a big if) can be offset with a lot of seats to pick up.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Also you have to factor the massive takeover by republicans in the state legislatures. That will have quite a bit of influence in the new district lines.