2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[adma]

And also consider that the 2011 federal Grit number was non-incumbent--had the byelection not happened and Maurizio Bevilacqua run again, it might have been considerably higher (even if, perhaps, not enough for him to win).

As for Sorbara--will he run again?  After all, he stepped aside from the finance ministry for "personal reasons" which almost seemed a prelude to retirement.  (And of course, if he's gone, the odds for a Liberal hold go down as well.)

[lilTommy]

And also consider that the 2011 federal Grit number was non-incumbent--had the byelection not happened and Maurizio Bevilacqua run again, it might have been considerably higher (even if, perhaps, not enough for him to win).

As for Sorbara--will he run again?  After all, he stepped aside from the finance ministry for "personal reasons" which almost seemed a prelude to retirement.  (And of course, if he's gone, the odds for a Liberal hold go down as well.)

Sorbara is running again, it was in the paper today, should be nominated on the 18th (aug).

[Holmes]

Howard Hampton retiring.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1032630--former-ndp-leader-howard-hampton-quits

Hmm...

[DL]

New poll of 2,000 Ontario voters by Forum in today's Star:

PC - 38% (down 3)
Liberals 28% (up 2)
NDP 24% (up 2)
greens 7% (down 1)

Change is from the previous survey in June. If we compare to the 2007 election the Liberals are down 16 points, Tories are up 6 points and NDP is up 7 points, greens are steady and since the numbers only add up to 97% I have to assume that "other" is up a bit as well.

[Holmes]

If the Liberal-NDP numbers tighten up just a bit more, the NDP might be looking at opposition status.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath isn't Layton and the OLP's machinery is in much better condition than the LPC's, but I wouldn't rule out a Dipper opposition either.

Also from today's Star: driving seniors into PC arms and youth into NDP arms. I love when politicians so willingly commit electoral suicide.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1032260--ontario-liberals-announce-highest-rent-increase-rate-in-years

[DL]

If the NDP is within 5% of the Liberals they will likely get as many or more seats. The Liberal vote in Ontario is very inefficient at low levels because it's so evenly spread across the province. Look at the recent federal election, the Liberals and NDP were virtually tied at 25% each but that translated into 22 NDP seats and just 11 for the Liberals!

[adma]

Horwath isn't Layton and the OLP's machinery is in much better condition than the LPC's, but I wouldn't rule out a Dipper opposition either.

Or even a Nova Scotia-1998esque 3-way?

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll of 2,000 Ontario voters by Forum in today's Star:

PC - 38% (down 3)
Liberals 28% (up 2)
NDP 24% (up 2)
greens 7% (down 1)

Change is from the previous survey in June. If we compare to the 2007 election the Liberals are down 16 points, Tories are up 6 points and NDP is up 7 points, greens are steady and since the numbers only add up to 97% I have to assume that "other" is up a bit as well.

Damn, why did they do a poll while I was on vacation?

Oh well, interesting numbers. Now that could mean a Tory minority. Also of note, Hampton's retirement brings Kenora into play for any party. Just like Welland is now in play (I had it going Tory, but those numbers mean it will probably stay NDP). Kenora could go any which way.

[Hatman 🍁]

My riding by riding projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/click-to-enlarge.html

Comments mandatory (either here or there)

[Smid]

There's nothing that's pouncing out at me as being particularly controversial.

I think I rate the NDP's chances in London - Fanshawe as being marginally better, not so much a tossup. The reason I say this is because I think strategic voting may support the Liberals in seats won by the Tories federally by a slim margin - seats like London North Centre or the Kitchener seats, however in seats which have demonstrated the potential to go NDP, I think voters will be less likely to vote strategically for the Liberals.

I probably am a little more optimistic for the Tories in Don Valley West, mainly from looking at those poll-by-poll maps, where a fairly significant portion of electorate voted for the Tories. Of course, it's a different election for a different level of government, with different leaders and different sets of baggage attached to different party machines, so I could be way off base (and being much closer to the action, you probably have a better idea about all of that).

I still think you're under-rating the NDP chances in Bramalea - Gore - Malton (I know that you tend to err on the side of pessimism with the NDP generally and in most elections, so I am not trying to nit-pick on this). My thought is that while things are again different leaders with different strengths, I am sure the work that the candidate did during the federal election may yet pay dividends. He has had his name out there for, well, must be at least since the start of the year, he has built up his networks within the community, and furthermore, with the federal Liberals finishing third, strategic voting may actually benefit the NDP.

I know I've mentioned strategic voting a couple of times now, and I know that it isn't as big an influence as many seem to assume, so I hope I'm not over-stressing that point, but in a very close result, it could potentially make a difference.

I'll have a closer look at your maps and tables in a little bit, those were just the seats that I've been thinking about recently, so they were the ones I looked at first.

[Хahar 🤔]

On the table at the bottom I think you switched "including toss ups" and "excluding toss ups".

[Smid]

On the table at the bottom I think you switched "including toss ups" and "excluding toss ups".

I initially thought that, but I think it means including or excluding toss-ups as a separate category.

[Hatman 🍁]

On the table at the bottom I think you switched "including toss ups" and "excluding toss ups".

I'll try to make the table more clear, but I didn't have it switched.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's nothing that's pouncing out at me as being particularly controversial.

I think I rate the NDP's chances in London - Fanshawe as being marginally better, not so much a tossup. The reason I say this is because I think strategic voting may support the Liberals in seats won by the Tories federally by a slim margin - seats like London North Centre or the Kitchener seats, however in seats which have demonstrated the potential to go NDP, I think voters will be less likely to vote strategically for the Liberals.

I probably am a little more optimistic for the Tories in Don Valley West, mainly from looking at those poll-by-poll maps, where a fairly significant portion of electorate voted for the Tories. Of course, it's a different election for a different level of government, with different leaders and different sets of baggage attached to different party machines, so I could be way off base (and being much closer to the action, you probably have a better idea about all of that).

I still think you're under-rating the NDP chances in Bramalea - Gore - Malton (I know that you tend to err on the side of pessimism with the NDP generally and in most elections, so I am not trying to nit-pick on this). My thought is that while things are again different leaders with different strengths, I am sure the work that the candidate did during the federal election may yet pay dividends. He has had his name out there for, well, must be at least since the start of the year, he has built up his networks within the community, and furthermore, with the federal Liberals finishing third, strategic voting may actually benefit the NDP.

I know I've mentioned strategic voting a couple of times now, and I know that it isn't as big an influence as many seem to assume, so I hope I'm not over-stressing that point, but in a very close result, it could potentially make a difference.

I'll have a closer look at your maps and tables in a little bit, those were just the seats that I've been thinking about recently, so they were the ones I looked at first.

Ok, so...

In London-Fanshawe, I think a lot of the federal NDP support there is personal vote for Irene Mathysen that she built by running in a lot of elections before getting elected.  The NDP candidate has some name recognition, as she is married to a city councillor. BUT, that might not be enough to win off of. I can tell you it might not take a lot to win the race though in a 3 way race.

Don Valley West is Toronto's most "conservative" riding, but if the Liberals get a good turnout in the Thorncliffe area, they should be able to keep it. Remember on those maps, the Liberal area is more dense, as it is more apartment buildings in the south end of the riding, while the Tory areas are in the wealthy areas that are less dense. Hence, you see more blue on the map.

In Bramalea-Gore-Malton, it's really hard to say what will happen there. Obviously, a lot of Singh's vote was personal vote, and he will keep that. He will even increase his votes from people who now think he has a shot of winning. However, without Jack steering the ship, there will be a net loss in votes- albeit not much.

I factored in strategic voting some ridings. It's important to think about what ridings will be perceived as close races by the voters- not races that actually will be. Just look at some of the non NDP seats in Quebec for what I mean.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to a Polara poll, the Liberals are leading 48-30 in Eglinton-Lawrence: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1035889--colle-holding-his-own-against-star-tory-candidate-poll-shows?bn=1

My projection had the seat as a tie, and 308 has the Tories with a massive lead there.

This will be interesting if true, but is quite hard to believe. I stand by the fact that this race will be much closer than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who or what are 'Polara'? Constituency polls, of course, do not have a good record anywhere. As we all learned (again!) a couple of months back.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who or what are 'Polara'? Constituency polls, of course, do not have a good record anywhere. As we all learned (again!) a couple of months back.

Sorry, it's "Pollara". I've heard of them, but don't know much. According to Wikipedia, they are the Liberal's official polling firm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollara

The margin of error was high, so we could be looking at a closer race.

But yeah, some local riding polls are spot on, some aren't. There'll be much change over the course of the campaign. But I doubt the Liberals are doing better there than they did in the last election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Such considerations only really matter if the poll is accurate. If it's dross, it's dross...

[adma]

According to a Polara poll, the Liberals are leading 48-30 in Eglinton-Lawrence: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1035889--colle-holding-his-own-against-star-tory-candidate-poll-shows?bn=1

My projection had the seat as a tie, and 308 has the Tories with a massive lead there.

This will be interesting if true, but is quite hard to believe. I stand by the fact that this race will be much closer than that.

Win or lose, I *can* see Colle going up in the 416-Liberal pecking order relative to '07; back then, he was tarred by ethics murmurs (which seem to be behind him now) and probably also took his safety for granted, with active 416 anti-Tory Liberal efforts concentrated more upon beating back John Tory in Don Valley West, and maybe to a lesser extent David Shiner in Willowdale.

Perhaps Colle vs Rossi is the new Wynne vs Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, hopefully some of our Torontonians can make some comments during the campaign about how things are going there.

[DL]

Three thoughts on that poll:

1. Pollara is the Liberal Party pollster. That doesn't mean their numbers have to be wrong - but it should be taken into consideration.

2. The results may also be a negative reaction to the Tories running Rocco Rossi. Rossi is an ex-Liberal who ran for mayor last year and was a total FLOP and turned into an object of ridicule by the end of the campaign. It may be that while the Tories acted like it was some "coup" to land Rossi - in reality he is actually a candidate with very high negatives.

3. FWIW the poll also had the NDP at 15% which is not a bad increase from 10% in the 2007 election and that riding is just about their worst riding in the province - so it at least shows that NDP support can go up 5% - and yet NOT have that cost the Liberals the seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that is a good % for the NDP. I have us at 10% there.

My next projection will involve altering Eglinton--Lawrence a bit.

[adma]

And remember that's a generic NDP number, i.e. unrelated to any current candidate (they used the previous election's NDP/Green candidate names as prompts)

[Linus Van Pelt]

This poll is basically useless, but it's not outrageous that the Liberals will hold better here than elsewhere. The religious schools issue is no longer a focus, and Hudak's campaign themes (of which the main one thus far seems to be YOUR HYDRO BILL IS TOO HIGH CAUSE OF MCGUINTY'S GREEN ENERGY SCAMS) aren't exactly geared towards North Toronto professionals.