Berg Enters ND Senate Race

[HST1948]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/berg-enters-nd.php

Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.) officially announced his Senate candidacy for retiring Sen. Kent Conrad's (D) seat Monday via a video announcement, giving his party a top candidate in the open seat race.

Even though he is still new to Congress, earning a first term after defeating Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) in 2010, Berg is popular in state Republican circles. More than 80 prominent North Dakota Republicans signed a letter encouraging him to run.

[tpfkaw]

More than 80 prominent North Dakota Republicans signed a letter encouraging him to run.

There are more than 80 people in North Dakota?!?

[HST1948]

More than 80 prominent North Dakota Republicans signed a letter encouraging him to run.

There are more than 80 people in North Dakota?!?

No, even more impressive there are more than 80 prominent people in North Dakota.

[nclib]

Perhaps Pomeroy could run for the House seat?--he'd have to equal or slightly above equal chance at it.

[Nichlemn]

lol, Charlie Cook has the Senate race as "Toss-up" but the House seat as "Likely Republican". This just confirms what I believed all along - Cook is heavily biased towards the party currently holding the seat, even if it is open.

What we're supposed to believe is that Berg was safe running for his At-large House seat, but when running for an open Senate seat (with the exact same electorate), it's only a toss-up (which is where it was before he announced). However, the truly open House seat is somehow "Likely Republican". Maybe this can be reconciled if you believe that the Democrats will fight much harder relative to the Republicans for the Senate seat than the House seat. But then it doesn't really make sense that say, AZ-Sen is "Likely R" with conditions that would appear far less suitable for Republicans. It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that ND-Sen used to be rated "Likely D" and AZ-Sen "Solid R", right?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

lol, Charlie Cook has the Senate race as "Toss-up" but the House seat as "Likely Republican". This just confirms what I believed all along - Cook is heavily biased towards the party currently holding the seat, even if it is open.

What we're supposed to believe is that Berg was safe running for his At-large House seat, but when running for an open Senate seat (with the exact same electorate), it's only a toss-up (which is where it was before he announced). However, the truly open House seat is somehow "Likely Republican". Maybe this can be reconciled if you believe that the Democrats will fight much harder relative to the Republicans for the Senate seat than the House seat. But then it doesn't really make sense that say, AZ-Sen is "Likely R" with conditions that would appear far less suitable for Republicans. It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that ND-Sen used to be rated "Likely D" and AZ-Sen "Solid R", right?

Well, here's the argument, I suppose: North Dakota is largely a Republican state. It is unlikely that Democrats will have two strong recruits here; if they can only find one strong candidate, they will be running for Senate.

Democrats will go through the motions for the Senate seat out of necessity. I doubt they'll do as much for the open House seat, which is pretty much out of reach since Pomeroy is now in a big-money lobbyist job.

[Nichlemn]

lol, Charlie Cook has the Senate race as "Toss-up" but the House seat as "Likely Republican". This just confirms what I believed all along - Cook is heavily biased towards the party currently holding the seat, even if it is open.

What we're supposed to believe is that Berg was safe running for his At-large House seat, but when running for an open Senate seat (with the exact same electorate), it's only a toss-up (which is where it was before he announced). However, the truly open House seat is somehow "Likely Republican". Maybe this can be reconciled if you believe that the Democrats will fight much harder relative to the Republicans for the Senate seat than the House seat. But then it doesn't really make sense that say, AZ-Sen is "Likely R" with conditions that would appear far less suitable for Republicans. It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that ND-Sen used to be rated "Likely D" and AZ-Sen "Solid R", right?

Well, here's the argument, I suppose: North Dakota is largely a Republican state. It is unlikely that Democrats will have two strong recruits here; if they can only find one strong candidate, they will be running for Senate.

Democrats will go through the motions for the Senate seat out of necessity. I doubt they'll do as much for the open House seat, which is pretty much out of reach since Pomeroy is now in a big-money lobbyist job.

That's possible, although there's a decent chance a strong Dem would shoot for the open seat and hope for a poor opponent rather than take a shot at a de facto incumbent who successfully beat a long time incumbent himself.

But I think this effect, if it exists, is relatively minor. Even if it overcame the incumbency bonus (which according to Cook's own rating seems to be worth one category), there's no way it's more than one net category's shift worth.

And it still doesn't explain why AZ-Sen can be "Likely R" in the same update. It's not as if other prognisticators are consistently on Cook's side here - Larry Sabato has AZ-Sen as "Lean R" and ND-Sen as "Likely R", which makes a lot more sense.

The problem is that Cook (and political prognisticators in general) have no real disincentive to make sensible early predictions, because they always judge their accuracy on their late predictions.

[ZuWo]

At first glance I'd say this will be a relatively safe Republican pick up. North Dakota looks like a Republican state and unless Berg is involved in a scandal he will defeat any Democratic opponent.