What are Obama's odds of reelection/defeat?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

What do you think?  Percentages would be ideal.

[feeblepizza]

50/50

[Joe Biden 2020]

It is very hard to say in such a volatile and fluid environment.  Right now, I would say 60/40, just because of the killing of Osama Bin Laden and the poor Republican field.  That could change next week, though, and most likely will change in the next 17 1/2 months.

[milhouse24]

I think if the GOP can nominate someone under the age of 60, then they have a stronger chance at beating obama, than say Bob Dole or McCain ever did at winning. 

Its not really about Left/Right Party idealogy, or even the economy.  I think its really about mano vs. mano and whoever has the best "It Factor" for being president, basically has the leadership personality, the comfort personality, the strong/toughness personality will win it. 

No one really liked Dubya's politics or policies, but he really embodied a winning presidential candidate - he knew how to win enough votes needed to beat the other stiffer Democrat. 

It really is "Personality" above "Politics" and I think Romney is really improving his Personality to win the votes.  He's trying to be less stiff and more caring.  People know he is smart and a leader, but they don't like/love him yet. 

T-Paw needs to show he is a leader and tough.  He's got a likeable, too nice personality. 
Newt doesn't have a nice, comfort personality - he's not gonna get any votes. 

[Yelnoc]

It is too variable.  His chances can roughly be broken down in the following way.
a) The economy continuing to grow.  If we have another major oil shock and the job growth is reversed (keep your eyes on Greece and the EU as well as the Middle East) then his chances go down to something like 40/60.  If things continue on their current trajectory, I would say he has a slight advantage, maybe 55/45.  If they continue to getter, I would say 60/40.
b) Who the GOP nominates.  A good candidate will drop his chances by 5%, a bad one will raise them 5%.
c) Foreign entanglements.  If the Libyan interventions turns out be an utter failure or we get involved somewhere else, he loses 5%.  Vice versa and he gains 5%.  Likely, foreign policy will take a back seat to the economy; in that case I would give this column a 0% affect on his chances.

So his best case scenario would be about 70/30 and worse case about 30/70.  Currently, I would say he is at 50/50 with a sluggishly growing economy, foreign policy returning to the back seat, and, in the end, the GOP likely to nominate a decent candidate (Romney, Huntsman, or Daniels come to mind).

[King]

About the same it was that he would be elected in the first place.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

75% chance he's reelected.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

35-50 percent chance of reelection

[NHI]

60/40 for this week.

[Penelope]

80-20

[feeblepizza]

35-50 percent chance of reelection

Math fail.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

35-50 percent chance of re-election vs 50-65 chance GOP wins. Hence not a math fail.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Maybe 48-55% chance he's re-elected. He might be more likely to be re-elected, but not by much.

[feeblepizza]

35-50 percent chance of re-election vs 50-65 chance GOP wins. Hence not a math fail.

I think the creator of this thread wanted to know the likelihood of an Obama loss vs. an Obama victory. Thus, Obama's chances (according to you) would be 50/50.

[sentinel]

100% chance.

[feeblepizza]

100% chance.

Oh please.

[pbrower2a]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

[Lou34679]

It depends on the candidate and the economy. If unemployment is the main issue, and it's still in the 8's or up, I think Romney has the best chance. I think he has the most presidential personality of the gop field. If unemployment is under 8% by summer/fall 2012, I don't think Obama will lose.

[Mr.Phips]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

[memphis]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

Have you seen the GOP field? Granted a lot can happen in the next year, but they're the sorriest bunch of losers ever to compete for a major party's nomination. Obama could easily trounce all of them (even more so with Huckabee's exit).

[Mr.Phips]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

You really think we are headed for another recession by year's end?  If that is the case, Obama would probably lose even to someone like Gingrich, because that would mean rising unemployment throughout 2012.   I am predicting around 2% growth for 2011 and a slowly falling unemployment rate throughout 2012.  Nobody else seems to be predicting a recession like you are. 

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

Have you seen the GOP field? Granted a lot can happen in the next year, but they're the sorriest bunch of losers ever to compete for a major party's nomination. Obama could easily trounce all of them (even more so with Huckabee's exit).

When the circumstances are ripe, the opponent usually doesn't matter much. 

However, you do make a point in this way - if Bush and the whole financial crisis had not occurred a mere three years ago, Obama's chances would be much, much worse, and we would be seeing it in the numbers now.  Normally, Presidents with these types of economies, and an economy that will almost assuredly be getting worse a year from now, have no chance at survival.  But with the former fresh in their minds, voters will also be taking into account whether they want to put a Republican back in the Oval Office, and they are right now anyways.

55-45 against is basically 50-50 at this point in the game - if you feel better with that, then take it.  I'm just very leery of giving anyone with these types of economic circumstances better than even odds, even with those caveats.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

35-50 percent chance of re-election vs 50-65 chance GOP wins. Hence not a math fail.

I think the creator of this thread wanted to know the likelihood of an Obama loss vs. an Obama victory. Thus, Obama's chances (according to you) would be 50/50.

I'm saying 35 percent chance

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

You really think we are headed for another recession by year's end?  If that is the case, Obama would probably lose even to someone like Gingrich, because that would mean rising unemployment throughout 2012.   I am predicting around 2% growth for 2011 and a slowly falling unemployment rate throughout 2012.  Nobody else seems to be predicting a recession like you are. 

We should see a negative GDP quarter in 4Q 2011 or 1Q 2012 based on current trajectories, input costs, capital spending, inventory replentishment, and the like.  Marty Feldstein said a few months ago that the top of this current cycle was 3Q 2010, which fits in fairly well with this call.

1Q of negative GDP growth is not a recession, as defined by NBER, and I am suspicious that the Fed next year will start trying to pump money into the system again to try and keep the status quo in place (as they did in 1980).  So, I am not calling recession, let me correct my post there.  Don't expect employment to improve, though.