VA-PPP: Obama leads every Republican

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 44%

...

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob McDonnell’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 35%

Do you want Bob McDonnell to run for President next year?

Yes.................................................................. 20%
No................................................................... 59%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 51% (+8)
Bob McDonnell ............................................... 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 52% (+9)
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 51% (+11)
Mitt Romney.................................................... 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 55% (+15)
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 54% (+17)
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 37%

Barack Obama................................................ 54% (+22)
Donald Trump ................................................. 32%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_0510424.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Their Virginia approval rating is almost identical to the national poll they did over the weekend (51-43).

This probably means that Virginia will again vote just like the nation - as in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

If one is to compare this poll to that of the Washington Post polls of Virginia -- the latter essentially one before May 1 and one after --

1. The PPP poll is stronger in favor of President Obama before May 1 but weaker than the one after May 1.

Maybe some of the euphoria following the demise of the real-life Lex Luthor has worn off.

2. Virginia has one of the most popular governors, Republican or Democratic,  in America -- much in contrast to those in more northerly states.  In Bob McDonnell we may see the 45th President of the United States -- beginning in 2017, that is. He could not win in 2012, and is likely astute enough to so recognize. McDonnell could defeat a weak Democratic nominee for President, especially if he manages to avoid the polarizing tendencies of some Republican politicians.

3. Virginia is neither decidedly R or D. It is as legitimate a swing state as any.

4. President Obama probably wins this state about 53-46 against Mike Huckabee, about 54-45 against Romney, and about 60-40 against a pathetic joke of a candidate (the latter losing by about the same margin nationwide in a major landslide.

[pbrower2a]

based on PPP, Virginia, without averaging it against either Washington Post poll


Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Trump

[krazen1211]

He looks like he's doing well amongst whites, which is odd given the rest of the polls around the nation.

[Mr. Morden]

favorability / unfavorability among all voters:

Mike Huckabee 37%/41% for -4%.
Mitt Romney 35%/43% for -8%.
Newt Gingrich 26%/54% for -38%.
Sarah Palin 31%/62% for -31%.
Donald Trump 22%/69% for -47%.

[Mehmentum]

He looks like he's doing well amongst whites, which is odd given the rest of the polls around the nation.

Northern Virginia might have something to do with that. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

He looks like he's doing well amongst whites, which is odd given the rest of the polls around the nation.

Northern Virginia might have something to do with that. 

Might?  I'd love to see a breakdown by region.

[Skill and Chance]

So now we see surprising strength for Obama in VA and NC and weakness in FL and PA.  I wonder how OH checks out right now.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

PA was taken at a brief period of unpopularity (around the budget crisis), and it was kind of an outlier anyway.

[Skill and Chance]

PA was taken at a brief period of unpopularity (around the budget crisis), and it was kind of an outlier anyway.

FL and PA matter the most IMO.  If Obama is leading in FL in the fall of 2012, that is basically a checkmate for him in the electoral college.  Conversely, if Obama is losing in PA, it's basically over for him unless he is somehow way ahead in both NC and VA. 

[pbrower2a]

So now we see surprising strength for Obama in VA and NC and weakness in FL and PA.  I wonder how OH checks out right now.

I suspect that in the aftermath of the assassination of Osama bin Laden, the President has gained some in the states most affected by 9/11: California as a destination for all flights, Virginia (the first and only state to make itself known so far) as a source of a flight and the Pentagon, New York (site of the Twin Towers), New Jersey (home of many of the workers who perished on 9/11 and the source of a flight), Massachusetts (source of a flight), Connecticut (workers in the Twin Towers), Pennsylvania (where one jetliner crashed); and states that had passengers on the doomed flights of 9/11 (Maryland, New Hampshire, Maine, and maybe Rhode Island). Of the states mentioned and DC, only New Hampshire and Pennsylvania have seemed in doubt for President Obama.

Ohio is a stronger R state than either New Hampshire or Pennsylvania, and if the President's support should be above 50% there, then guess what that bodes for New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.         

PPP has readers voting on what state to poll next, and Ohio so far leads. You may get your wish.

Quinnipiac frequently polls Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida anyway. So don't be surprised to find a poll soon of any one of the states that have looked promising fro Republicans in recent months that President Obama won.