VA-Washington Post: Obama leads every Republican, has high approvals now

[Tender Branson]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html

[Tender Branson]

LOL at Palin & Trump.

I never thought that a Republican with nearly 100% name recognition would trail by 30% in VA !

[ZuWo]

Pawlenty seems to be still suffering from low name-recognition. I think his numbers will go up considerably once he really starts campaigning.

[Mehmentum]

I will be interesting to compare this poll to what PPP gets for their Va poll coming up.

[pbrower2a]

(Washington Post, Virginia):

Before the demise of Osama bin Laden

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

(Gingrich not shown in this poll, but Pawlenty is, and I will use him as a surrogate for Virginia)

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Trump

[pbrower2a]

(Washington Post, Virginia):

Before After the demise of Osama bin Laden

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

(Gingrich not shown in this poll, but Pawlenty is, and I will use him as a surrogate in Virginia if nowhere else)

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Trump

[memphis]

So, in a decade, VA  has swung from a lean R state to a strong lean D state? Interesting... Fair or not, with the Pentagon in the North and the Norfolk Naval base in the SE, I always thought of VA as a big time military state. Now that Obama is a "strong leader" who got bin Laden, can the Dems erode the longtime GOP lock on the military vote?

[Sbane]

I still think va is about the national average. Obama would defeat any Republican if the election was today.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Extremely encouraging to see.

[pbrower2a]

So, in a decade, VA  has swung from a lean R state to a strong lean D state? Interesting... Fair or not, with the Pentagon in the North and the Norfolk Naval base in the SE, I always thought of VA as a big time military state. Now that Obama is a "strong leader" who got bin Laden, can the Dems erode the longtime GOP lock on the military vote?

It is one state  -- one that the Republicans haven't won without since 1924. Hoover won it by a big margin in 1928. Eisenhower won it twice by 10%+ margins. Nixon won it against Kennedy.

I think that President Obama has just achieved what Republicans wish that they could do themselves.  President Obama has solved several problems at once at practically no cost by military standards and without harm to any of his objectives of foreign policy.

Virginia is a huge military state, but it also has lots of liberal-leaning minorities and government employees. Virginia has also endured more than its share of the effects of terrorism on American soil. One of the doomed flights on September 9, 2001 originated in Virginia and one hit the Pentagon. Virginia had the Langley shooter and the Beltway snipers.

Polls for some Southern states would be interesting. Those are the states in which white people are more likely to join the Armed Forces than the national average. Southern white people pay attention to military matters and foreign policy to an extent that Northern whites don't; they will be the ones in harm's way. In 2008, the South had some of the states that voted most decisively for John McCain, a war hero. In 2012 the Republicans have no war hero.

[Mehmentum]

So, in a decade, VA  has swung from a lean R state to a strong lean D state? Interesting... Fair or not, with the Pentagon in the North and the Norfolk Naval base in the SE, I always thought of VA as a big time military state. Now that Obama is a "strong leader" who got bin Laden, can the Dems erode the longtime GOP lock on the military vote?

Possibly.  If so, a poll of Georgia would be interesting as well. 

[© tweed]

this crap will long evaporate by the time the Republicans coronate somebody.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So, in a decade, VA  has swung from a lean R state to a strong lean D state? Interesting... Fair or not, with the Pentagon in the North and the Norfolk Naval base in the SE, I always thought of VA as a big time military state. Now that Obama is a "strong leader" who got bin Laden, can the Dems erode the longtime GOP lock on the military vote?

It is one state  -- one that the Republicans haven't won without since 1924. Hoover won it by a big margin in 1928. Eisenhower won it twice by 10%+ margins. Nixon won it against Kennedy.

[Obama dick-sucking]

Virginia is a huge military state, but it also has lots of liberal-leaning minorities and government employees. Virginia has also endured more than its share of the effects of terrorism on American soil. One of the doomed flights on September 9, 2001 originated in Virginia and one hit the Pentagon. Virginia had the Langley shooter and the Beltway snipers.

Polls for some Southern states would be interesting. Those are the states in which white people are more likely to join the Armed Forces than the national average. Southern white people pay attention to military matters and foreign policy to an extent that Northern whites don't; they will be the ones in harm's way. In 2008, the South had some of the states that voted most decisively for John McCain, a war hero. In 2012 the Republicans have no war hero.

Ugh ... here your analysis crumbles.  Just kidding, your analysis sucked in the first place, but you keep repeating this whole "John McCain was a great candidate for the South because he was a war hero" ad nauseam, but saying it over and over again doesn't make it so.  There is NO evidence of a "military effect" and there hasn't been one since Eisenhower ... people who vote for someone because of their military service are people like Mike Naso - they're ALREADY Republican in the first place.
Also, all this poll says to me is that opposition to Obama has softened ... meaning, people are more open to voting for him than before, but probably won't and will probably go back to hating him after this bounce subsides.

Agreed.

There might have been a reverse military effect if you count Kerry 2004.  The swifties made it a liability vs an asset.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I still think va is about the national average. Obama would defeat any Republican if the election was today.

     That's probably right. I think Washington Post showed Obama with 56% approval nationwide after OBL was killed, so this suggests that Virginia is right on the national average. Reading a great deal into these numbers would be a mistake.

[Tender Branson]

It seems every politician in Virginia is popular these days:

[HAnnA MArin County]

So, in a decade, VA  has swung from a lean R state to a strong lean D state? Interesting... Fair or not, with the Pentagon in the North and the Norfolk Naval base in the SE, I always thought of VA as a big time military state. Now that Obama is a "strong leader" who got bin Laden, can the Dems erode the longtime GOP lock on the military vote?

Could possibly be due to the fact that Northern Virginia (remember the interview when the McCain campaign referred to it as not the real/fake Virginia) is gaining more political clout in the state. Are the DC suburbs expanding in that area? That could be the reason. If the poll holds true, Virginia will no longer be a part of real America.