my what if thread

[freepcrusher]

If Wesberry vs Sanders had always been the law of the land and county splitting was always allowed, here are some maps of what certain districts would have looked like back in the day. I will start with 1930s Iowa.

[freepcrusher]

Here is Iowa in the 1940s

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Iowa in the 1950s

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Iowa in the 1960s

[Bacon King]

How are you getting tract-level results from back then?

[freepcrusher]

I did this off of county population results. If adding a certain county would go over the ideal population, I split it. The county splits are just estimates. It would be cool however, if dave bradlee could show us tract results.

[freepcrusher]

Here is Texas in the 1930s. Notice how much more clout the rural areas used to have.

[freepcrusher]

Here is Texas in the 1940s. Not much changes as the number of districts stay at 21, but Harris County becomes the first county to have a district entirely within the county.

[jimrtex]

Here is Texas in the 1940s. Not much changes as the number of districts stay at 21, but Harris County becomes the first county to have a district entirely within the county.

The census bureau has historical data so you could do a more complete job on the county splits.

[freepcrusher]

here is Texas in the 1950s.

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1960s Texas

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1970s Iowa

[freepcrusher]

Here is Texas in the 1970s. Most of the districts would probably have been democrat except for a few.

The 3rd had a lot of dem rural areas but also had the republican oil town of Tyler and by the end of the decade, Collin County would have nearly 150,000 people. I believe the last year before redistricting, Ray Roberts retired and a former senator and judge Ralph Hall took over. Hall of course was a conservative democrat back then.

The 4th would undoubtedly been republican and probably elected a RW nut like James Collins.

The 11th would have been republican and would have probably been Bill Archer's district.

The 19th might have went republican as it took in a lot of WASP areas of San Antonio and unlike the old 21st had no incumbent (OC Fisher would have been in the 23rd under this map)

[freepcrusher]

This is Iowa in the 1980s.

1st District probably would have been the Tom Tauke district. He gave his seat up in the 1990 election to run against Harkin for the senate. He was replaced by Jim Nussle

2nd District. This probably would have been Cooper Evans seat. I believe he lost in 1986 to David Nagle

3rd District. This would have been the Jim Leach district.

4th District. This was Neal Smith’s district

5th District. This is Harkin’s home district. He vacated the seat in 1984 to run for the senate. Jim Lightfoot (R) took over after that.

6th District. This is the Berkeley Bedell district (D). He retired in 1986 and the seat was taken over by Fred Grandy (R)

[freepcrusher]

Here is Texas in the 1980s

[freepcrusher]

so for a verbal description of each Texas district, here goes:

1st: this would have been Sam Hall's district (no relation to Ralph Hall). He was appointed to the courts in 1985 and was replaced by Jim Chapman who would have held the seat for the rest of the decade.

2nd: This would have been Jack Brooks' district (sorry Charlie)

3rd: this would have been an open seat and probably would have been held by a conservative democrat

4th: Ralph Hall (who lives in Rockwall county) would have been drawn into this undoubtedly republican seat. Luckily for him, he wouldn't have to worry about facing James Collins, who was running for the senate against Bentsen. He either would have moved to the 3rd or stayed in the 4th and switched parties just like Phil Gramm or Bob Stump. Had the former, he would have been fine in the 3rd. Had the latter happened, he might have lost a primary to Steve Bartlett (who was actually to the left of Hall on some issues)

5th: This would have been the John Bryant district

6th: this would be Martin Frost's district

7th: This would be Phil Gramm's district. It would have gone to Smoky Joe when he ran for the senate in 1984

8th: This would have been a swing district that could have gone to anyone. It had the blue collar democrat base in Galveston, the republican base in MontCo, and the rural democrats in between

9th: Jack Fields would have ran in this district

10th: Mickey Leland would have ran here. He died in a plane crash in 1989 and was replaced by Craig "Crook" Washington

11th: this seat would have most likely have gone to Mike Andrews

12th: this would be Bill Archer's seat

13th: This was Ron Paul's seat that would have been taken over by the Hammer in 1984 when Paul ran for the senate

14th This would have been a quintessential swing seat. Wright Patman's son originally represented this district but with Reagan on the ballot in 1984, he was unseated by Mac Sweeney. Sweeney, however, was unseated in 1988 by Greg Laughlin

15th: This would have been Jake Pickle's district

16th: Marvin Leath would have ran in this district. He retired in 1990 and would have been replaced by Thomas "Chet" Edwards

17th This would have been Speaker Wright's district. He resigned in 1989 and Pete Geren would have likely replaced him

18th: This was Tom Vandergriff's seat but he was unseated in 1984 by Dick Armey. Vandergriff was basically a republican anyways

19th: Kent Hance and Jack Hightower would have been placed in the same district. Hightower probably would have won the primary. Considering Beau Bolter (who unseated Hightower in 1984) lived in the neighboring 20th in Amarillo, Hightower probably would have been safe.

20th: This would have been Charlie Stenholm's district. He always won by landslide margins and even ran unopposed once or twice in the 80s. Beau Bolter wouldn't have unseated him here

21st This would be Tom Loeffler's seat. He ran for governor in 1986 and would have been replaced by Lamar Smith

22nd: This would have been Charlie Gonzalez' district

23rd. This would have been an open seat. It probably would be a swing seat as it took some Mexican (democratic) barrios in San Antonio and some German (republican) areas

24th: This would have been Solomon Ortiz' seat

25th Both Abraham Kazen and Eligio DelaGarza lived here. Either they would face off in a primary, or Garza would have moved to the 24th and Ortiz never would have been a congressman.

26th This is an open seat. Despite being on the border, the district even now is majority white and probably would have been around 70 percent white back then. A republican like Kenneth "Mike" Conaway or George W. Bush would have ran here or a conservative democrat might have won here too.

27th. This would be Ron Coleman's seat