CNN: Ron Paul has best chance to beat Obama

[Tender Branson]

What about the showdown in November 2012?

According to the poll, taken before the announcement of Osama bin Laden's death, President Barack Obama has an edge over all the top GOP candidates in hypothetical match-ups.

Who does best against Obama? Paul. The congressman from Texas, who also ran as a libertarian candidate for president in 1988 and who is well liked by many in the tea party movement, trails the president by only seven points (52 to 45 percent) in a hypothetical general election showdown. Huckabee trails by eight points, with Romney down 11 points to Obama.

The poll indicates the president leading Gingrich by 17 points, Palin by 19, and Trump by 22 points.

"It should be obvious to any political observer that hypothetical general election match-ups at this stage of the game have relatively little predictive value," says Holland.

...

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted April 29-May 1, with 1,034 adult Americans questioned by telephone. All interviews were completed before the president announced that bin Laden, the founder and leader of the al Qaeda terrorist network and the man responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks, was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/05/cnn-poll-still-no-front-runner-in-the-battle-for-the-gop-nomination/

[Eraserhead]

He has the best chance and he still gets squashed. lolz.

[NHI]

Ron Paul will not be President; I still say Romney is the strongest candidate and the one most likely to beat Obama.

[Cincinnatus]

Ron Paul will not be President; I still say Romney is the strongest candidate and the one most likely to beat Obama.

errr.. NO.  Romney will probably have the most explaining to do among the frontrunners.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Ron Paul will not be President; I still say Romney is the strongest candidate and the one most likely to beat Obama.

As I have said many times already, Romney has enough skeletons in his closet to make a cemetery. He doesn't even have views he isn't willing to throw away for political expediency, and a lack of ethics isn't something that will do well in this kind of atmosphere.

Still, I can't believe Paul is on top. I mean, the RPRelLOVEution hasn't even started up yet. Guess those indies and Libertarians make up the difference.

[pbrower2a]

He has the best chance and he still gets squashed. lolz.

Ron Paul has a long-developed 'cult' following. That is 'cult' in the best sense, as in 'cult' film -- let us say Flash Gordon serials. Comparatively few people like those serials, but only because they aren't as well known as glossier and more fashionable entertainment.

But that said, Paul has been slow to develop the sort of following that he has now, and he loses out to slicker candidates more adept at drawing attention to themselves. He has been slow enough to do so that it is now too late. Sarah Palin has more of a following, and she is three years younger than President Obama.

On the other side of the political spectrum... Senator Carl Levin (D, MI) is about as well known, and so far as I can tell I am about the only one operating in any of these Forums to suggest him as a Presidential candidate, and then only in a counter-historical setting. His chance of becoming President is effectively nil.

[Mehmentum]

Only seven points!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

They just released the crosstabs.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/05/06/rel7b.pdf

It looks like Paul does a bit better because of independents. Also, he is actually winning both the primaries and general elections if you count only men, and he does a bit better than most Republicans with non-whites. Also, women really don't seem to go for him.

Yeah, I would say he is pretty much a certified "first tier" candidate at this point, regardless of how many media outlets claim that Gingrich and T-Paw are more serious.

[Tender Branson]

The real numbers:

ADULTS

53-45 Obama vs. Huckabee
53-43 Obama vs. Paul
55-42 Obama vs. Romney
58-39 Obama vs. Gingrich
59-38 Obama vs. Palin
59-36 Obama vs. Trump

REGISTERED VOTERS

52-45 Obama vs. Paul
53-45 Obama vs. Huckabee
54-43 Obama vs. Romney
57-40 Obama vs. Gingrich
59-38 Obama vs. Palin
58-36 Obama vs. Trump

[King]

Paul has no chance of winning the election, but 52-45 is a strong enough showing that he could actually get his message out to a wider audience in a losing effort.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Paul has no chance of winning the election, but 52-45 is a strong enough showing that he could actually get his message out to a wider audience in a losing effort.

If Obama screwed something up, he could probably win. If Obama didn't screw anything up, I doubt any of the Republicans could win.

[feeblepizza]

As if polls this early on mean anything.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Paul has no chance of winning the election, but 52-45 is a strong enough showing that he could actually get his message out to a wider audience in a losing effort.

yeah, much like Goldwater in 1964, who paved the way for Reagan later on. However, I'm not sure if there's enough of an audience that would be receptive to Paul's message and pave the way for a libertarian shift down the road.

[Cincinnatus]

As if polls this early on mean anything.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

As if polls this early on mean anything.

You think Roemer and Karger will be the frontrunners?

[feeblepizza]

As if polls this early on mean anything.

You think Roemer and Karger will be the frontrunners?

Who knows.