Northern Ireland 2011

[Јas]

First count declared in Upper Bann.

SF's John O'Dowd elected, but I haven't found the numbers yet.

[YL]

Is there anywhere with a sensible presentation of the results?  I'm sure last time I used RTE, who understand STV, but their link seems to go to the BBC.

[Јas]

SF look well placed to gain a second seat.
Delores Kelly in danger of losing the SDLP seat.
Definitely 1 UUP seat, whether there's a second depends on the lower candidates not displayed.

I'll have to keep looking.

[Јas]

Derry East - First Count

Quota: 4,961

6,319 Gregory Campbell* (DUP)
4,681 Cathal Ó hOisín (SF)
3,855 George Robinson* (DUP)
3,003 David McClarty* (i)
2,967 John Dallat* (SDLP)
2,639 Bernadette Archibald (SF)
2,633 Adrian McQuillan* (DUP)
2,222 Thomas Joseph Conway (SDLP)
1,905 Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance)
1,568 Boyd Douglas (TUV)
1,472 Lesley Macaulay (UUP)
1,458 David Harding (UUP)


Campbell (DUP) elected.
Count 2 is the distribution of his surplus.


Looks like McClarty (deselected former UUP MLA) will hold his seat.
The UUP decision to run 2 candidates continues to boggle.

The first 5 candidates here should be fine, that last seat will presumably be DUP v UUP, to be determined by TUV and Alliance transfers.

[Јas]

Lagan Valley - First Count

Turnout: 52.4%
Quota: 5,070

7,329 Edwin Poots (DUP)
5,771 Basil McCrea (UUP)
4,389 Trevor Lunn (Alliance)
4,352 Paul Givan (DUP)
4,263 Jonathan Craig (DUP)
2,910 Brenda Hale (DUP)
2,165 Pat Catney (SDLP)   
1,482 Mark Hill (UUP) 
1,203 Mary-Kate Quinn (SF)     
1,031 Lyle Rea (TUV) 
   592 Conor Quinn (Green)

Poots (DUP) and McCrea (UUP) elected.
Count 2 is the Poots surplus distribution.


Looks like as expected the DUP will gain the outgoing SF seat here - mostly because of a boundary change.

Catney (SDLP) might be able to narrow that gap on Hale (DUP) for the last seat, but the gap and nature of transfers to come means he'd need to be more than lucky to overturn the difference.

[Јas]

South Down - First Count

Quota: 5,961

8,506 Margaret Ritchie* (SDLP)
5,955 Caitríona Ruane* (SF)
5,200 Jim Wells* (DUP)
4,409 John McCallister* (UUP)
3,882 Willie Clarke* (SF)
3,758 Karen McKevitt (SDLP)
3,050 Naomi Bailie (SF)
2,663 Eamonn O'Neill (SDLP)
2,332 Henry Reilly (UKIP)
1,107 Cadogan Enright (Green)
   864 David Griffin (Alliance)

Ritchie (SDLP leader) elected.
Count 2 is the distribution of her surplus.

Should be fairly straightforwardly 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.

[Јas]

Is there anywhere with a sensible presentation of the results?  I'm sure last time I used RTE, who understand STV, but their link seems to go to the BBC.

Nevermind a sensible presentation, any presentation would be nice.

BBC online seem unaware of any declarations so far.
UTV online have only provided a couple of screenshots, like I've posted.

None of the northern newspaper sites have any much coverage (BelTel have nothing. The NewsLetter have a pretty poor live blog.)

None of the radio stations ahve anything much.

Slugger has a live blog, but no complete details of count declarations. Looks like the liveblog is ending now in a few minutes anyway.

None of the Republic's media have substantial detals on numbers.

Which leaves whatever one can pick up from twitter.

I'm pulling the above numbers from listening in on BBC Radio Ulster (but it's quite rushed, so I may have some errors).

[Јas]

Farce continues...

Foyle going to recount - initial count disagreed with earlier count on ballots.

Fermanagh-South Tyrone count delayed because one of the tables holding votes collapsed sending ballots everywhere.

Box mix up in Antrim North between referendum and Assembly votes has delayed things there as well.

[Јas]

UTV have started putting up constituency counts declared so far.

[Joe Republic]

Fermanagh-South Tyrone count delayed because one of the tables holding votes collapsed sending ballots everywhere.

lol

[Јas]

Looking at the lesser votes (2,800 for the Alliance, 1,000 for TUV) in Upper Bann, it will likely be touch and go between UUP and SDLP for the final seat.

[Јas]

UKIP vote in South Down has doubled since 2007 - up to 5.6%

Green vote there falls from 3.5% to 2.7%

[Јas]

Foyle - First Count

Quota: 5,550

7,154 William Hay* (DUP)
6,950 Martina Anderson* (SF)
4,970 Mark H. Durkan (SDLP)
3,638 Raymond McCartney* (SF)
3,138 Pat Ramsey* (SDLP)
3,120 Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit)
2,967 Colum Eastwood (SDLP)
2,624 Pól Callaghan (SDLP)
2,612 Paul Fleming (SF)
1,280 Paul McFadden (i)
   334 Keith McGrellis (Alliance)
     60 Terry Doherty (i)

Safely 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 SF.
Final seat will be SDLP v People Before Profit.
SDLP to be initially favoured - but the surplus of Hay (DUP) and the distribution of McFadden's (i) votes will be important.

[Јas]

South Antrim - First Count

Quota: 4,595

4,844 Paul Girvan* (DUP)
4,662 Mitchel McLaughlin* (SF)
4,607 Trevor Clarke* (DUP)
4,554 David Ford* (Alliance)
3,406 Thomas Burns* (SDLP)
3,145 Danny Kinahan* (UUP)
2,866 Pam Lewis (DUP)
2,285 Adrian Cochrane-Watson (UUP)
1,091 Mel Lucas (TUV)
   404 Stephen Parkes (BNP)

Girvan, McLoughlin and Clarke elected.
Count 2 is the elimination of the BNP and TUV.

Ford will safely make it. Kinahan (UUP) should be safe following the elimination of his running-mate.

So it will be Burns (SDLP) v Lewis (DUP) for the final seat. DUP look like they should be favoured to win and so a straight gain from the SDLP.

[Јas]

Strangford - First Count

Quota: 4,239

4,573 Michelle McIlveen* (DUP)
4,284 Kieran McCarthy* (Alliance)
4,265 Jonathan Bell* (DUP)
3,456 Simon Hamilton* (DUP)
3,273 Mike Nesbitt (UUP)
2,773 David McNarry* (UUP)
2,525 Joe Boyle (SDLP)
2,175 Billy Walker (DUP)
   902 Mickey Coogan (SF)
   841 Terry Williams (TUV)
   601 Cecil Andrews (UKIP)

McIlveen, McCarthy and Bell elected.

Disappointing result for the SDLP - would need unionist transfers to mess up badly in order to gain the 6th seat. Looks like UUP and DUP for the last seat - with UUP to be somewhat favoured to win and so gain from DUP here.

[Јas]

Lagan Valley & South Down counts suspended for the night.

South Down completed the distribution of the Ritchie surplus - which elected Ruane (SF), but I've not been able to find full figures.

[Јas]

BBC online seem to have now noticed that counts have been declared in NI - slowly getting figures up.

Seats so far...
7 DUP
6 SF
2 SDLP
2 UUP
1 Alliance

18/108 seats filled

[Јas]

Belfast North - First Count

Quota: 4,782

6,674 Gerry Kelly* (SF)
5,200 Nelson McCausland* (DUP)
4,025 Alban Maginness* (SDLP)
3,724 William Humphrey* (DUP)
3,488 Paula Bradley (DUP)
2,999 Carál Ní Chuilín* (SF)
2,758 Fred Cobain* (UUP)
2,096 Billy Webb (Alliance)
1,176 Raymond McCord (i)
   998 JJ Magee (SF)
   332 John Lavery (Workers')

Kelly and McCausland elected.
Alliance have almost quadrupled their vote.

2nd SF and DUP seats safe, as is the SDLP.

Will be Cobain (UUP) chasing Bradley (DUP) for the final seat. Cobain will need a good share of the Alliance and McCord transfers to overturn hat deficit.

[Јas]

South Belfast - First Count

Quota: 4,616

6,390 Anna Lo* (Alliance)
4,527 Alasdair McDonnell* (SDLP)
4,045 Jimmy Spratt* (DUP)
4,038 Alex Maskey* (SF)
3,800 Ruth Patterson (DUP)
3,191 Conall McDevitt* (SDLP)
2,988 Michael McGimpsey* (UUP)
1,394 Mark Finlay (UUP)
   889 Clare Bailey (Green)
   414 Brian Faloon (People Before Profit)
   234 Paddy Meehan (Socialist)
   234 Nico Torregrosa (UKIP)
   135 Paddy Lynn (Workers')
     29 Samuel Charles Smyth (Procapitalism)

Anna Lo (Alliance) re-elected. Her surplus (1,774) will now be distributed.

Good result for the DUP, not so good for the SDLP.
Looks like Patterson (DUP) v McDevitt (SDLP) for the final seat. Lo's surplus could be important here.

Procapitalism increased it's vote by about a third. No doubt they'll be delighted.

[Јas]

North Down - First Count

Quota: 4,015

5,175 Alex Easton* (DUP)
3,741 Gordon Dunne (DUP)
3,496 Peter Weir* (DUP)
3,131 Stephen Farry* (Alliance)
2,207 Steven Agnew (Green)
2,100 Anne Wilson (Alliance)
1,879 Alan McFarland* (i)
1,765 Alan Chambers (i)
1,585 Leslie Cree* (UUP)
1,343 Colin Breen (UUP)
   768 Liam Logan (SDLP)
   615 Fred McGlade (UKIP)
   293 Conor Keenan (SF)

Easton elected.

Quite unclear what the result here will be.

DUP have done well and will likely see all 3 elected, so a gain for them.
Farry is fine.

The other 2 seats could go to any of Agnew, Wilson, McFarland, Chambers and/or Cree.
Probably one of Agnew/Wilson, and one of the others.

Will go for a semi-random call of Agnew and Cree at this stage.

[Јas]

North Antrim - First Count

Quota: 5,760

6,581 Paul Frew (DUP)
6,152 Daithí McKay (SF)
6,083 Mervyn Storey (DUP)
4,061 Jim Allister (TUV) 
3,682 Declan O'Loan (SDLP)
3,275 David McIlveen (DUP)
3,256 Evelyne Robinson (DUP)
2,518 Robin Swann (UUP)
2,189 Bill Kennedy (UUP)
1,848 Jayne Dunlop (Alliance)
   668 Audrey Patterson (TUV)  

Frew, McKay and Storey elected.
3rd DUP seat a certainty.

Allister likely to take a seat.

O'Loan (SDLP) v Swann (UUP) for the final seat most likely (unless both can overtake Allister [possible, but unlikely]). The Alliance transfer will be the one to watch here.

[Јas]

Ford (Alliance leader) elected on Count 2 in Antrim South.

[Јas]

Belfast East - First Count

Quota: 4,622

9,149 Peter Robinson* (DUP)
4,329 Judith Cochrane (Alliance)
4,183 Chris Lyttle* (Alliance)
2,668 Sammy Douglas (DUP)
2,436 Robin Newton* (DUP)
2,194 Michael Copeland (UUP)
1,702 Dawn Purvis* (i)
1,493 Brian Ervine (PUP)
1,030 Niall Ó Donnghaile (SF)
   943 Philip Robinson (UUP)
   712 Harry Toan (TUV)
   572 Martin Gregg (Green)
   337 Ann Cooper (BNP)
   250 Magdalena Wolska (SDLP)
   201 Tommy Black (Socialist)
   102 Kevin McNally (Workers')
     46 Stephen Stewart (i)

Robinson elected - in what is clearly an effort by the DUP to make a statement following last year's embarrassment. His surplus to be distributed in Count 2.

Very good result for the Alliance here (as across Belfast). Simple gain here.

Philip Robinson's vote should put Michael Copeland sufficiently ahead of the chasing pack to take a seat, barring Purvis proving quite transfer friendly from Ervine (which it seems is unlikely) and the lower order candidates.

[Јas]

William Irwin (DUP) elected on the third count in Newry & Armagh.

[Јas]

Belfast West - First Count

Quota: 4,950

5,343 Paul Maskey* (SF)
5,239 Jennifer McCann* (SF)
4,489 Fra McCann* (SF)
4,116 Sue Ramsey* (SF)
3,765 Alex Attwood* (SDLP)
3,723 Pat Sheehan* (SF)
2,587 Brian Kingston (DUP)
1,661 Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit)
1,471 Bill Manwaring (UUP)
   802 Colin Keenan (SDLP)
   589 John Terence Lowry (Workers')
   384 Pat Lawlor (Socialist)
   365 Dan McGuinness (Alliance)
   122 Brian Pelan (i)

Maskey and McCann elected.
The first 4 SF and Attwood are safe.

And Pat Sheehan should take the last seat for SF which would result in no change here.
Brian Kingston should narrow the gap but one presumes the PBP final transfer will put the nail in that coffin.