PPP, Arizona, April-May 2012. Obama beats all but Romney.

[pbrower2a]

After the Ryan budget is proposed, but ending on the day on which Usama bin Laden went to see the Great Satan.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_05031205.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Trump

Arizona now looks like a legitimate battleground state. This is roughly what I would expect with the reversal of the Favorite Son effect even if nothing really changes from 2008.

The way Sarah Palin is dropping in popularity she might have to be contrasted to a western diamondback rattlesnake to have a chance to win something. Donald Trump is beginning to look like a stooge. 

[Miles]

At -4, Obama is more popular than I would think.

[krazen1211]

At -4, Obama is more popular than I would think.

That's higher than his national average at the time, I think.

[Mehmentum]

Basically, everyone but Romney is getting creamed out west. 

[Tender Branson]

Basically, everyone but Romney is getting creamed out west. 

This poll looks a bit too favorable for Obama I think, but yes, if Romney is not nominated the GOP has a very tough time winning, because they almost cannot win without the Western states.

[tpfkaw]

This is a bullsh*t poll, like everything else PPP is producing.  One merely needs to look at last year's election results (or 2008's).

[pbrower2a]

This is a bullsh*t poll, like everything else PPP is producing.  One merely needs to look at last year's election results (or 2008's).

Take away the Favorite Son advantage that the GOP had in Arizona in 2008, and Arizona becomes a legitimate swing state. Contrast Texas in either 2000 or 2004 to Texas in 1996 or 2008. Contrast South Dakota in 1972 to all surrounding states.

PPP isn't that far off from Rasmussen. 

[NHI]

Romney is the strongest candidate, despite all his baggage.

[Badger]

This is a bullsh*t poll, like everything else PPP is producing.  One merely needs to look at last year's election results (or 2008's).

Um, okay. The GOP's margin of victory in AZ actually decreased slightly from 2004 with a favorite son on the ballot. See the national 2008 swing and trend maps for Southwestern states and figure out what that fortells, especially as current demographic trends continue.

And yes, Wormy, if the national climate in 2012 is the same as 2010 the GOP nominee will surely carry AZ.

Though ftr I think these numbers are a little optomistic for Obama too.

[timothyinMD]

This is a bullsh*t poll, like everything else PPP is producing.  One merely needs to look at last year's election results (or 2008's).

Um, okay. The GOP's margin of victory in AZ actually decreased slightly from 2004 with a favorite son on the ballot. See the national 2008 swing and trend maps for Southwestern states and figure out what that fortells, especially as current demographic trends continue.

And yes, Wormy, if the national climate in 2012 is the same as 2010 the GOP nominee will surely carry AZ.

Though ftr I think these numbers are a little optomistic for Obama too.

I'd use the term "favorite son" loosely.  John McCain was not very well liked at home.  Conservatives were very disappointed with his candidacy, and he performed pathetically poorly in the primary there.

Still, I agree.  This poll is quite hard to believe.  The last Rasmussen survey of the 2010 elections showed Obama at 40/60 approval in Arizona.  I doubt he wins there in 2012.  He'll be busy scrambling to hold onto other states.

[Mehmentum]

Rasmussen was really off in the 2010 elections.

Still, these seem pretty optimistic for Obama, even compared to the last time PPP polled Obama in Arizona.

[krazen1211]

This is a bullsh*t poll, like everything else PPP is producing.  One merely needs to look at last year's election results (or 2008's).

Yep. Maricopa County has been quite consistently ~54-44 in its election outcomes....McCain or no McCain.

[pbrower2a]

This is a bullsh*t poll, like everything else PPP is producing.  One merely needs to look at last year's election results (or 2008's).

Um, okay. The GOP's margin of victory in AZ actually decreased slightly from 2004 with a favorite son on the ballot. See the national 2008 swing and trend maps for Southwestern states and figure out what that fortells, especially as current demographic trends continue.

And yes, Wormy, if the national climate in 2012 is the same as 2010 the GOP nominee will surely carry AZ.

Though ftr I think these numbers are a little optomistic for Obama too.

I'd use the term "favorite son" loosely.  John McCain was not very well liked at home.  Conservatives were very disappointed with his candidacy, and he performed pathetically poorly in the primary there.

Still, I agree.  This poll is quite hard to believe.  The last Rasmussen survey of the 2010 elections showed Obama at 40/60 approval in Arizona.  I doubt he wins there in 2012.  He'll be busy scrambling to hold onto other states.

Bill Clinton came within 2% of winning Arizona in 1992 and won the state in 1996. Arizona will have one attraction for  President Obama: a very open Senate seat that might attract him to make some campaign appearances. Arizona fits President Obama's style of campaigning because a population heavily concentrated in two metro areas -- Phoenix and Tucson.  Even if the Republican nominee isn't an abject failure like Sarah Palin (who, I project, would put some very R states in play) the state is no sure thing for any Republican nominee, especially if President Obama does as well in 2012 among the fast-growing Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) population as he did in 2008.

It's hard to see President Obama winning Arizona yet losing the Presidential election. Arizona will be more R than the US at large. More significantly, can I see President Obama winning Arizona while losing one of the states that he won in 2012, like Indiana or North Carolina? Sure.

Republicans may have thrown away this state (and perhaps the open Senate seat and the majority of the House delegation) with the proposal to privatize Medicare, which may be even more trouble to the GOP. You just don't mess with elderly voters in Arizona and win. This may be a very pro-business state, but 'pro-business' sentiment ends at the point at which people get fleeced. But this applies also to any state with an aging population, including Pennsylvania or Florida.  I can't see President Obama winning Arizona with fewer than about 350 electoral votes, but I can easily see him winning Arizona with about 370 electoral votes and can't see him losing Arizona with 400 electoral votes.

President Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and both Colorado and Nevada before he wins Arizona -- and quite possibly North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, or Georgia. 

[nhmagic]

This poll is biased.  I don't care how lackluster candidates may be this year, Obama doesn't have a shot at AZ unless he's landsliding.  Theres something about this poll that bothers me too...I wish I could see how it was internally weighted.  The partisan ID shakes out, but I wonder if that Independent/Other isnt stacked heavily with Ds, in a state where the independents also are fairly conservative. 

I never get this desperate obsession because it would serve Ds better to go after electoral votes that are easier.  It is fools gold for Ds because of Maricopa county.

Understanding Arizona 101

In order for a democrat to win the state's electoral votes ala Bill Clinton, you have to look at where Bill was actually successful (and also be doing very well nationally). 

Key #1 - A democrat must perform well in Pima County.  This means holding the republican to 40% of the county vote.  Pima includes Tucson which isnt heavily dem, but leans left.  Obama Level of Difficulty - Not Difficult

Key #2 - You must almost break even in Maricopa County.  Bill Clinton didn't need to win it, but he did hold Dole within about 2-3 pts. Obama Level of Difficulty - Very Difficult
And why is it difficult?  Because of the makeup of the people who reside in this county.  It includes Phoenix and the Phoenix metropolitan area, which means 1-1.5 hours on highways driving from the north tip to the southern tip of the county, or the same from west to east. 

For purposes of this discussion, we can divide Phoenix into subsections: Mega Moneyville, Moneyville, Collegeville, Mormonville, Mexiville, and the Christian Corners.

Mega Moneyville – Paradise Valley, North Scottsdale, North & North Central Phoenix – republicans do well here, particularly in North Scottsdale.  Obama needs to do ok in PV and take North/NC Phoenix.  North Scottsdale is off the table for a dem.

Moneyville – Central Scottsdale & East Phoenix – republicans do well here.  Obama needs to do ok in central Scottsdale and take east Phoenix to win the state.

Collegeville – mainly concentrated in Tempe, but, you cannot judge the college vote by who votes in Tempe – most of the students going to ASU do not live in Tempe, and often retain their conservative views – Tempe is lean dem, and Obama did well here.  Obviously, he has to run high totals here to even compete.

Mormonville – Mesa and Gilbert are dominated by mormons, mormons hold just about all of the power positions, and one of the biggest Mormon temples in the country is found in Mesa, Mormons are fairly conservative – so its another republican stronghold.  Obama can win Mormons in Mesa.  It ain’t happening in Gilbert.

Mexiville – West Phoenix, Phoenix, South Phoenix Central Phoenix hold concentrations of high amounts of Mexicans, Obama did well and will do well here in 2012, outside of Tucson, this is a decent dem power center within the state.  It is critical for Obama to run high margins here.

Christian Corners – Glendale, Avondale, Chandler. I call them the Christian corners because they (well they used to – theyre growing) marked the last big residential areas within the county.  There are a lot of middle-class evangelical Christians in these areas.  Republicans do very well.  Glendale/Avondale are out of the question for Obama.  Chandler isn’t, and can swing.

Most of the growth in the state is occurring in the Christian corners and Mormonville.  I even think the new district is going to slice Flakes district into two republican districts.

Key #3 – A democrat must hold ok margins in the outlying lean dem, Native American counties.  Level of Difficulty – Moderately Difficult, you have to justify visits to areas of Arizona that are sparsely populated compared or have Key 2 locked, thus making it difficult.

In essence, it’s really hard for a democrat to win statewide.  Obama might have pulled it off in 2008 if McCain hadn’t been the nominee, but not because AZ is trending dem (it isn’t).  It’s because Obama was the hot new thing in a godawful year for republicans.  In a 50/50 or near 50/50 election with AZ already feeling slighted by Obama, which I expect this to be, AZ is fools gold.

[pbrower2a]

This poll is biased.  I don't care how lackluster candidates may be this year, Obama doesn't have a shot at AZ unless he's landsliding.  Theres something about this poll that bothers me too...I wish I could see how it was internally weighted.  The partisan ID shakes out, but I wonder if that Independent/Other isnt stacked heavily with Ds, in a state where the independents also are fairly conservative. 

This could reflect the GOP has bungled the elderly vote by proposing to deal away Medicare. Arizona has lots of elderly voters, and they don't want the government to sell it off.  Add to that, the Governor's popularity seems to be on the fade -- still above water, but not by much. Then consider that Arizona got hit by the real estate meltdown. If you figure that many elderly people can't sell their houses or must rent them out for what used to be sub-market  rentals, that can't be good for their wealth.   

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If Arizona goes for Obama in 2012, then that implies that he is at doing at least as well in 2012 as in 2008. Arizona doesn't get close unless Obama is in the 350 EV zone, and if he picks up all of  the states that I consider in the general area (Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana), then he is close to winning 400 electoral votes. Next comes Texas, which shows where I think Arizona is politically. 

The big temptation is an open Senate seat, one of the Republican-held seats most likely for a Democratic pickup. There just aren't that many R seats vulnerable in 2012, and several D seats look vulnerable.  Such will attract President Obama if he sees the Senate Democratic majority at risk.  Such is my prediction about Arizona.   

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OK.

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Phoenix is a huge metro area; Phoenix is now the sixth-largest city in the US. Even if it looks suburban (think also of Dallas), suburbia is now legitimately urban. Suburbia has real problems -- environmental degradation, traffic jams, aging or overstretched infrastructure, and crime. Republicans used to do well in Suburbia by promising tax cuts to white-collar workers with the admonition that "your boss will love you even if you don't get much of a break!"  That is over.

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OK -- Barack Obama didn't win Staten Island or Monmouth County, New Jersey. But he came closer than usual in both.

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If their investments are doing OK, they might give credit to President Obama. If they rely upon rental income, they might curse Republicans.

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ASU is a commuter college, but that effectively dilutes the college vote by moving it around the city. If "conservative values" mean that one will happily assume debt to be paid off working in jobs that mock the learning that college grads have and still be conservatives, then one expects young adults in Arizona to vote very differently from the pattern in such a state as Texas. 

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Such could be the difference between Arizona and either Colorado or Nevada -- proportionately  more Mormons. The PPP poll shows that only Romney beats Obama; others, including Huckabee, lose. The only way in which President Obama wins Mormon country is if the Republican nominee either insults Mormonism or lives so reprobate a life that Mormons vote for Obama.   

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I see no reason to expect anything other than an overwhelming majority of Mexican-American voters for Obama in 2012.

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But is the population growth outpacing the growth of the Mexican-American population? That population is bigger than it was in the 1990s.

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The GOP has nothing to offer there. These areas could be reached more by radio and television.

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If President Obama is at all close to winning Arizona, then he has the election sown up. Period. But the interpretation that Obama is a 'hot new thing' is obsolete. That the GOP was a god-awful year for Republicans can be true again in 2012. Indeed the GOP may be setting up a year as bad for them in 2012 as the Democrats had in 2010 with extreme positions that they promoted and then had to back off from. Politicians who must back off from positions that they stated loudly because those positions prove terribly unpopular are in political quicksand.   

[nhmagic]

1-Or it could reflect that PPP is biased.  Arizona did get hit by the real estate meltdown, but as all of the national polls are showing - blame is moving from Bush to Obama on economic matters.  The real estate meltdown happened awhile ago and nothing has changed that is fixing it. 

2-I still think O would need about two or more percentage points on his national total to take AZ.  As has been noted, Maricopa pretty consistently goes GOP 54-44 or so.  As for the senate seat, you guys dont have a candidate yet and there arent really any top tier candidates out there.  Giffords is out due to brain damage (a tragedy, but it is what it is).  Goddard is about the only candidate who can make it close, but hes old news.  You also have to remember that democratic dream candidates in AZ don't usually pan out because theyre too liberal to be elected statewide.  Nappy wasnt as liberal as gov as she is in Washington.

3-Yeah, suburbia has problems, but you dont understand Phoenix folk.  They dont trust liberals to fix the problems that the city has otherwise they would be voting them in.  You rattled off a liberal wish list of things that have little influence elections in the state.  Its business, business and more business.  Watch the 2002 gov debates between Napalitano and Salmon.  Thats what people talk about all of the time there.

4-Re Moneyville: Again, you are suggesting that issues for which republicans were blamed in 2008 for will be blamed on them again.  The 2010 elections pretty much show that voters have shifted the blame.  How would Obama sell that?  Would he say "I’ve had four years running the economy and promising you a better market, but your republican congressmen have kept rental income low over the last two years they got elected?”  Also, better investments will only be credited to Obama should the unemployment rate improve significantly.  That's psychological credit.
5-Re Collegeville: I have no idea what you are trying to say here, but whatever it was sounds like bitter snark.  Trying to decipher here: You’re saying that students choose to go to college and incur debt.  As they leave college, they enter jobs to pay off that debt that insult their learning.  Due to this they stay conservative? 

I graduated from there.  All Im saying is that AZ students don’t simmer within the college environment that pressures them into liberalism.  They don’t live on campus and most hold full time jobs while being a student.  I don’t want to argue on this though because this will go on forever. 
5-Re Mexiville: He’s got to turn them out and they are not as enthused due to the lack of an immigration bill in the years he had unified government.  If he goes negative on the AZ law, then the rest of the state polarizes against Obama causing him to lose the state.  He’s got to walk a tightrope here.
6-Re Christian Corners: Yeah it is, otherwise they wouldn’t be putting the new CD there.  AZ has an independent commission and the state is getting an influx of people coming from other states.  Plus, AZ Mexicans resemble Texas ones more than in other states like Cali and NM.

7-Re Key 3: Uh, if you want to waste money.  Not all the outlying areas are lean dem.  Is he going to go in for the heavily GOP miner votes. 
Finally, the GOP only has an awful 2012 if the economy improves.  That combined with Bin Laden would solidify Obama’s election, but the economy better start improving now – and it isn’t.

[pbrower2a]

Here are some new polls on Arizona, and they don;t bode well for Republicans:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0505.pdf

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The Republican Governor isn't in as bad shape as some new Republican Governors in the East, but may be the economy. The long-time Senator McCain is approaching the area that Jim Bunning was in in 2010 -- and it really is a pity. Senator Kyl is just inside the "Do Not Re-Elect" zone, so it is hardly surprising that he chose not to run again. Arizona seems to be shadowing Nevada and Colorado on the way to the Democratic camp.

Sure, this is the same pollster that showed every Republican except Mitt Romney losing the state. But this is a change from a couple months ago. It comes after some hare-brained legislative proposals by House Republicans, but before any effects of the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

Romney may win this state against President Obama because of the Mormon community in Arizona, but it is now telling that Huckabee doesn't.  Will the Mormons vote for Romney because he is a Mormon and vote for Democrats not running against Mormons? One can't predict ticket-splitting. But President Obama is likely to be in a position in which the open Senate seat and a couple of R House seats flip.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

How do we know he's leading in Colorado?  I haven't seen any polls for that state.

[Mr. Morden]

How do we know he's leading in Colorado?  I haven't seen any polls for that state.

Most recent one I think is this poll from February:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131797.0

[Badger]

2-I still think O would need about two or more percentage points on his national total to take AZ.  As has been noted, Maricopa pretty consistently goes GOP 54-44 or so.  As for the senate seat, you guys dont have a candidate yet and there arent really any top tier candidates out there.  Giffords is out due to brain damage (a tragedy, but it is what it is).  Goddard is about the only candidate who can make it close, but hes old news. 

7-Re Key 3: Uh, if you want to waste money.  Not all the outlying areas are lean dem.  Is he going to go in for the heavily GOP miner votes. 

Observation and a question:

2) A recent poll showed Goddard within (IIRC) 3 points of Flake. "Maybe less "old news" and more "familar to voters"?

7) The miner vote is AZ is heavily GOP? Really?? How'd that happen? Not unionized maybe? Therefore they blame any problems in their sector of the economy on environmental regulations?

[pbrower2a]

1-Or it could reflect that PPP is biased.  Arizona did get hit by the real estate meltdown, but as all of the national polls are showing - blame is moving from Bush to Obama on economic matters.  The real estate meltdown happened awhile ago and nothing has changed that is fixing it. 

PPP may be a Democratic pollster, but it leans Republican in results. It does lots of polls, and it just showed Virginia giving a 51% approval soon after a Washington Post poll gave the President 57%.

Rasmussen used to do lots of statewide polls, but doesn't now. I would accept a Rasmussen poll.

Blame may be going from Dubya to Obama on the economy -- but it is also going to the GOP majority in the House. I don't deny that the GOP is for a stronger economy, but it has clearly shown itself for a strong economy only for the rich and powerful first.     

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Arizona went for Bill Clinton in 1996. Dubya got barely 50% of the vote in Arizona in 2000. Arizona may have lots of elderly conservatives, but any conservative who messes with their Social Security or Medicare can expect a huge shift of votes to the alternative. Sure, those elderly conservatives are white, but many of them have Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) in-laws. Take a look at the sinking popularity of Governor Jan Brewer. Sure, she's still treading water politically, but that's not where she was when she was re-elected. 

Maricopa County may be one of the most conservative metro counties in America (along with Orange County, California; Tarrant County, Texas; Monmouth County, New Jersey; and Waukesha County, Wisconsin  (Scott Walker's political base); and Duval County, Florida -- but note the fast-growing Hispanic population. The GOP majority in the House may have messed with the wrong bloc of voters by attacking the socialist elements of America that people have come to rely upon.   

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In 2012 they may be talking about the effort to turn Medicare into a slush fund for profiteers who have no obligation to serve clients well. Republican politicians who stand with the attempted privatization will get burned for standing for a folly. Republicans who voted for it but then backtracked will be easy targets for flip-flopping. Old-age security is a big issue in Arizona whenever anyone threatens it.

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Unsold or unsellable houses often become rentals to the detriment of those who already owned rentals. That's supply and demand, something taught even in high-school economics.  The housing industry depends upon people getting solid income -- something lacking since the collapse of the corrupt real-estate bubble. No, current Republican Representatives didn't create the glut of houses, but they have certainly stood for depressed pay.   

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The ASU campus isn't like Cal-Berkeley, UT-Austin, or UM-Ann Arbor. There isn't much of a college community, so far as I have heard. Students do not 'choose' to go deeply into debt except as a gamble; if they don't attend college, then they are sure to join the working poor who have nothing to protect them from the cruel caprice of inhuman markets and the harsh decisions of people who see working people as expendable and replaceable cogs in an inhuman machine. But at that, students can attend college and wash out (the faster the better in such a case because that implies a lower level of debt to pay off) and end up as house-cleaners, fast-food workers, retail cashiers -- basically people that the American capitalist system $crews badly. Some college graduates find themselves in the same jobs that they held while attending college; if they don't get any gain from attending a no-frills college in which they majored in "business administration", then they have huge debts and no stake in the system.

I may be thinking ten to twenty years down the line, but such people are the potential Communists of 2020-2025... the sorts of people who believe that the capitalist system has betrayed them and are willing to seek revenge against anyone who betrayed them.   

 

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The Hard Right has little to offer Mexican-Americans in Arizona or elsewhere. Mexican-Americans have never known the antipathy from white people once reserved for blacks almost everywhere and Asians (oh, is that dated!) in the Pacific Coast area. If people are busted for having an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe, then such isn't going to look good to anyone with religious sensibilities.

The Obama campaign left Arizona alone after John McCain was the nominee. With a Senate seat and several House seats reasonably in play, the Democrats will pull no punches in Arizona.  All that could stop Democrats in Arizona is a sense of futility... and Republicans have thrown that away.

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I said that Mormon influence is quite possibly the difference between Arizona and either Colorado or Nevada. Mitt Romney probably wins the state against Obama, but other prospective Republicans seem to lose. Such is a marginal difference, but it won't be enough for the Republicans to have an easy chance to hold onto an open Senate seat and several House seats.

The people coming in from other states include people from California... Obama can have some big wins in Arizona even if he loses the state's electoral votes. 
 

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Mining is a fast-shrinking share of the workforce in almost all states. Why should miners be pro-Republican?

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The economy is already improving! There just is no possibility of a speculative boom, which is just as well because of the bad consequences of the worst economic meltdown since 1929-1932. On the average, anyone who invested in the stock market in February 2009 and has kept his investment intact has doubled his money. It's up to Republicans to do nothing rash that could jeopardize the slow improvement that has happened.

Consumer confidence, to be sure, has been slower to recover than have asset valuations. But that said, the demise of Osama bin Laden can only do well for consumer confidence. 

[Likely Voter]

The Obama campaign has put AZ on their wish list of targeted states due to demographic changes there. It likely would only go if Obama was already winning as many EVs as last time but they want to play there and start building for the dems.

If the dems have a good candidate for Senate this could be competitive.

[Mehmentum]

Polls are showing that the Governor Jan Brewer is declining in popularity.  Is that because of the right wing agenda Republicans are proposing, or because she vetoed several of the more extreme Republican bills and is facing conservative backlash? 

[pbrower2a]

Polls are showing that the Governor Jan Brewer is declining in popularity.  Is that because of the right wing agenda Republicans are proposing, or because she vetoed several of the more extreme Republican bills and is facing conservative backlash? 

It could be both. She might not be as extreme as the Tea Party types, and she might recognize the Hard Right agenda as a political disaster. But she also contradicts herself.

The Democrats now have no such problem.