Canadian Election Results Thread

[Foucaulf]

Look at CBC's GTA map!

The Liberals have been devoured. There are ~7 Rob Ford ridings going to the Conservatives. The Coast is going to the NDP. The sheer abnormality of this would be why a Tory majority is too early.

[Foucaulf]

Big swing towards the Tories in Ontario. Two Ottawa ridings have switched. Guergis is decimated. GTA is in ruins. However, in the midst of all this, Kingston and the Islands has a narrow Liberal lead.

Ignatieff and Duceppe are falling too much behind.

[Foucaulf]

Someone will project a Tory majority in the next few minutes. I would wait until BC results are out, though.

That said, the Ontario sweep may be too hard to gain back. I hope the GTA is an anomaly.

[Foucaulf]

The Liberals have collapsed in British Columbia...

Most ridings in BC only have one poll released. The Ontario gains are dependent on a very low number of polls - 20 out of 200.

The Liberals have collapsed, but it's across the nation.

[Foucaulf]

Ahuntsic seems like it's going to the NDP any moment.
All Independents are gone.
Elizabeth May looks determined, but she's going to get slaughtered.
Although the Tories are at 160+ now, this is predicate on the NDP not gaining in BC. If that surge happens you're going to see the Conservatives beneath 155.

[Foucaulf]

Among the Conservative gains:

NDP -> CON in Sault Ste. Marie;
LIB -> CON in Winnipeg South Centre;
LIB -> CON Yukon!

[Foucaulf]

I was closer than anyone

ME

I WAS!!!

words can not express how happy I am right now.

Twenty seats lower for the Tories than actual results, like most.

At this point, we have no one to blame but Ontario. I'm this close to thinking that the rain in the GTA today led to a Conservative majority.

[Foucaulf]

Kill me, kill me

EDIT: Regarding the Tory majority, of course.

[Foucaulf]

So, after Bloq Quebecois, whither Quebecan nationalism?

A majority would be made without anything from Quebec. I'm seeing a more SDP scenario in Quebec's future, starting with a PQ victory.

[Foucaulf]

I feel sorry for Canada.

As a leftist, the demise of the Liberals and Bloc should be good news.

As a voter from BC - where the NDP has only won government 3 times out of 22 elections - I am less cheery.

[Foucaulf]

Assuming all things hold equal in Ontario, the seat counts for that province are:

CON: 73 (+21)
NDP: 22 (+5)
LIB: 11 (-26)

Ahuntsic has went from Bloc to the NDP. The Bloc is shut out in Montreal.

[Foucaulf]

The only consolation for "progressives" today is that the Tories' Atlantic and Ontario caucus certainly outnumbers those from the West. The centre of political gravity has shifted once again to the East.
Then again, this is the province that gave Mike Harris to the world...

[Foucaulf]

Ignatieff says that his party is "a descendent of a great Quebecois, Wilfrid Laurier"

It is so poignant, because there are no traces of Laurier left to be found. Almost no Quebec seats, no anti-war perspective, no Canadian autonomy...

Just realized-Liberals are still leading in Winnipeg North!

[Foucaulf]

Going back to BC's ridings:

My riding has, as I predicted, gone massively for the Conservative incumbent. It is interesting that the NDP might claim second place in a city that has never gone to the left.

Vancouver Quadra will be kept by Joyce Murray (LIB). Vancouver South will finally turn blue. Surrey North is finally becoming more and more orange, and NDP is in the lead. Elizabeth May still leads, but with only 10 boxes polled.

Nanaimo-Alberni and Surrey North both seem to be NDP pickups.

In my eyes, the future of the NDP hangs on a knife edge. When I calm down more I'll write an essay about it.

[Foucaulf]

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

When your riding is surrounded by NDP elects, it's hard not to.

Montmorency-Charlevoix, by the way, has swung to the NDP. Bloc is rising in Richmond-Arthabaska.

[Foucaulf]

Breaking News: Liberal Party will change its name to "Bloc Newfoundland".

j/k

The real problem with the Liberals is that they have no solid base. GTA is gone. Another Vancouver riding is gnawed away. New Brunswick has repudiated ex-Premier Graham's party.

All we have now is a party of individuals. Trudeau, Fry, Rae, McCallum, McGuinty... these powerful personalities will tear the party apart. And they have no affiliation to the party, but instead the party is affiliated to them. They can walk away if convenient.

The feudal nature of the Liberals is still evident. If that's not fixed by the year's end, the Liberals are gone.

[Foucaulf]

Chantal Hébert says: "This is the worst result for the sovereigntists... there is no money, no official status for the party... Mr. Harper is unpopular, but over [Duceppe's leadership] sovereignity has never gone up."

The Bloc has outlived its purpose, even that of getting Quebec pork. Sovereignism as a federal movement is over.

[Foucaulf]

Surely one can complain about "infantile leftism" dominating this election...

Liberals may have gone the way of Fianna Fail - two of the most powerful parties in history getting record-low results within nine weeks.

As bad as this seems, it's not THAT bad. Fianna Foil in a FPTP system would have seats numbering in the single digits. The Liberals still have their personalities, and they have not gone past a point of no return. Their stabilization or their demise will just be quicker than most.

[Foucaulf]

"Today we proved that Canadians want change in politics."  Not really... you didn't.  The NDP did.

Seems like she wrote her speech without consideration of a Conservative majority.
(If the Tories won, surely she would have lost?)

[Foucaulf]

Surely one can complain about "infantile leftism" dominating this election...

Liberals may have gone the way of Fianna Fail - two of the most powerful parties in history getting record-low results within nine weeks.

As bad as this seems, it's not THAT bad. Fianna Foil in a FPTP system would have seats numbering in the single digits. The Liberals still have their personalities, and they have not gone past a point of no return. Their stabilization or their demise will just be quicker than most.

I was referring more to their share of the vote - below 20% for the first time. Liberals are more likely to recover but both are in trouble.

I'm not sure how you drew 'infantile leftism' from what I said, especially considering that I am not in any way a left-winger. Infantile, maybe . . .

Crap, sorry; that was not directed at you at all! I was making that reference with respect to May's victory and the NDP winning on a hope and a prayer.

Fianna Fail's percentage '11 is lower than Liberal '11, but Fianna Fail's drop was due to the collapse of an entire political order. I firmly believe the death of the Liberal party will not be decided by the electorate, but by themselves.

 

You really think it was written?

You think she's good enough an orator to make it up as she went?

May-bashing is the only way to express my anger, I suppose.

[Foucaulf]

As Layton makes his speech, Nipissing-Timiskaming switches, LIB -> CON.

Also, Layton says "Tonight Canadians voted for better healthcare", but quickly corrects himself: "Public healthcare!"

[Foucaulf]

Layton congratulated Harper for his victory, is booed.

He responds: "It's a significant victory."

[Foucaulf]

I don't think anybody did well with their predictions.  I almost went heavy with the Conservative gains, but figured I'd just get mocked as a hack... should've done it! lol

Us left wingers are so out of touch with reality*!

Every election is a learning experience, though. Rooting for the NDP this time was certainly less misguided than supporting Obama and Clegg.

*I predicted 100 NDP seats, though. Do I get partial points?

[Foucaulf]

Plot twist!

Voter turnout still decreased this election. This time, it would be more immigrants not voting than general inactivity, though I think Albertans cared little either. At least my skepticism over high advanced voter turnout was justified.

[Foucaulf]

What's the margin for re-counts?

Elections Canada says "less than one one-thousandth of the total votes cast in the electoral district".