Canadian Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 123575 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #950 on: June 05, 2011, 08:46:42 AM »
« edited: June 07, 2011, 10:22:08 PM by mileslunn »

Here is the Liberals over 55% and also 50% too.  Only 2 seats, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor and Humber-St. Barbe Baie Verte.  There were many in 2000 and 2004 so shows just how far the party has fallen.



Liberals over 45%  7 seats (Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls, Random-Burin-St. George's, Cape Breton-Canso, Scarborough-Agincourt, York West)



Liberals over 40% 21 seats (1 in BC, 4 in NL, 1 in NS, 8 in ON, 2 in PEI, 4 in QC, 1 in SK)


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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #951 on: June 05, 2011, 11:41:03 AM »

I'm not too sure what they're doing in the interval between releasing poll results to the select few and releasing them to the general public, but anyway, the Vancouver Sun has poll maps (comparing 2008 and 2011) for Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca, Vancouver South, and Newton-North Delta.

In the two suburban Victoria ridings the Liberal areas just went en masse to the competitive non-Conservative party, while Newton-North Delta retains its interesting geographical polarization.

(Moderator: I know the situation with these polls is a bit of a mess, so feel free to move this post into a 2011 poll maps thread when a clear one gets started if you like).
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DL
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« Reply #952 on: June 05, 2011, 12:21:43 PM »

These are interesting maps. Of course in the case of Newton-North Delta I think more of the Liberal vote held because there was an incumbent running for re-election with a big following in the Sikh community. Now that he's out of the picture and the new NDP MP is also Sikh - I think that by 2015 that artificially Liberal vote in NND will evaporate and mostly go NDP.
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Meeker
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« Reply #953 on: June 05, 2011, 04:18:40 PM »

Awwwwwwwww

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/06/05/pol-harpers-cat-name.html
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deansherratt
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« Reply #954 on: June 06, 2011, 05:56:15 AM »

First off the mark. If you check out interrnational elections, I have the first riding done poll by poll, Ottawa South, one of the 34 Liberals seats...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=4703

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #955 on: June 06, 2011, 08:22:04 AM »

First off the mark. If you check out interrnational elections, I have the first riding done poll by poll, Ottawa South, one of the 34 Liberals seats...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=4703



Ah, cool. James  McLaren told me the NDP won 3 polls and tied 2 others, so this makes sense.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #956 on: June 07, 2011, 10:18:14 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2011, 09:44:37 PM by mileslunn »

Here is Liberals over 35% 52 seats (otherwise 2% less than they got in 2004)(1 in BC, 2 in MB, 2 in NB, 5 in NL, 6 in NS, 26 in ON, 3 in PEI, 6 in QC, 1 in SK)



Here is the Liberals over 30% 76 seats (otherwise what they got in 2006 when they were removed from power)(4 in BC, 4 in MB, 3 in NB, 5 in NL, 6 in NS, 38 in ON, 4 in PEI, 10 in QC, 1 in SK, YK)

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mileslunn
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« Reply #957 on: June 09, 2011, 09:41:18 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2011, 09:47:21 PM by mileslunn »

Here is the Liberals over 25% 95 seats (1 in AB (Calgary of all places), 5 in BC, 4 in MB, 3 in NB, 6 in NL, 7 in NS, NU, 48 in ON, 4 in PEI, 14 in QC, 1 in SK, YK)



Liberals over 20% 118 seats (2 in AB, 6 in BC, 5 in MB, 5 in NB, 6 in NL, 7 in NS, NU, 61 in ON, 4 in PEI, 19 in QC, 1 in SK, YK)

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mileslunn
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« Reply #958 on: June 09, 2011, 09:53:48 PM »

Amazing how far the Liberals have fallen.  I think a lot has to do with the fact that when you are in the centre, you can appeal to more, but also have less of a firm base.  Chretien for all his flaws was seen as a fairly strong leader while he faced quite weak opponents.  By contrast Martin, Dion, and Ignatieff were much easier to take down while Layton and Harper were both far stronger opponents than anything Chretien ever faced.  In Ontario it seems they still have a strong base in the GTA and could thus win back a whole wack of seats with not too big an increase in their of the popular vote, but once you get beyond the GTA, they are largely irrelevant in most ridings in Ontario.  In Quebec, much the same as what support they do have is largely on the Island of Montreal.  Off course the NDP has to gain a whole wack of votes before they start picking up several seats in Ontario.  Considering that not all Liberals have the NDP as their second choice, their ability to gain will depend heavily on turnout.  I don't think many Tories will swing to the NDP, but if enough are dissatisfied they could stay home much as many Liberals in 2008 did (although many of those showed up in 2011 but switched).  Any gains would have to come from a stronger youth turnout and also making inroads amongst the immigrant community, particularly those of lower income and in the 416 as opposed to the middle class ones who primarily reside in the 905 belt as I suspect those if they aren't already voting Tory, would go Tory before Liberal.  Asides from New Brunswick which went more heavily Tory than the other provinces, the Liberals seem to still have a fairly strong base in this region.  New Brunswick in many ways voted more in line with the provinces west of the Ottawa River rather than East of it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #959 on: June 12, 2011, 08:52:29 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2011, 11:27:19 AM by mileslunn »

Here is the Liberals over 15% 160 seats (4 in AB, 12 in BC, 7 in MB, 7 in NB, 6 in NL, 3 in the North, 9 in NS, 84 in ON, 4 in PEI, 23 in QC, 1 in SK) Otherwise less than they won in 2000 and 1993



As has been the case since 1984, the West and Quebec are clearly the Liberals weakest parts.  On election night, Mulroney mentioned Trudeau's last term as being part of the Liberal weakness as he alienated Quebec by bringing in the constitution without their approval and alienated the West with the National Energy Program and ever since then the Liberals have struggled the most in those two regions.  You can afford to lose one as the Liberals did under Trudeau or the Tories have under Harper, but not both unless you can sweep Ontario as Chretien did and he did this more due to unique circumstances.  You had a divided right and an unpopular NDP provincial government being still fresh in people's memories.  With the NDP unlikely to form government provincially anytime soon and the right likely to remain united, the possibility of the Liberals sweeping Ontario seems remote.  Otherwise they have to find a way to breakthrough in Quebec or the West if they ever want to win a majority government.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #960 on: June 12, 2011, 08:54:46 AM »

I think they'd be better off trying to work out how to remain a viable force first. They have no easily definable social base now, and that is extremely dangerous.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #961 on: June 12, 2011, 11:12:05 AM »

I think they'd be better off trying to work out how to remain a viable force first. They have no easily definable social base now, and that is extremely dangerous.

I agree, although how well they come back or not also depends a lot on their opponents.  I can see two scenarios help making it easier for them, but both are a big if.

1.  The NDP takes a sharp turn to the left and supports many left wing policies that have been abandoned by social democratic parties around the world, thus they drop to 15% and the Tories to take a hard turn to the right and adopt many of the policies the Reform party advocated and they drop to 30% thus creating a opening in the centre once again.

2.  The NDP is unable to appeal to both its Quebec caucus and Western caucus so their support blows up in their face much the way the Mulroney PCs did who tried to do the same thing so the Liberals once again are the main alternative and when people finally get tired of the Tories, they turn to the Liberals.

Finally the NDP and the Liberals may have little choice but to merge as if the Tories win 2 or three majorities and they win 70+ seats in each of them in Ontario, but many with less than 50%, they will merge much the way the PCs and Alliancce merged due to the vote splitting on the right, primarily in Ontario as neither did well in Quebec and the right mostly favoured the PCs in Atlantic Canada while Reform/Alliance in the West.  Either way the Liberals are in dire straits, but I think it has finally dawned on them that their past losses were not accidents, but rather deep structural problems and making cosmetic changes won't be enough, they need a radical overhaul.  Finally with no threat of an election for 4 years, it is a bit easier to do this as opposed to in a minority when there is always the difficult choice of whether to prop up the government or vote them down and face an election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #962 on: June 12, 2011, 12:01:53 PM »

Here is the Liberals over 10% 218 seats (12 in AB, 19 in BC, 8 in MB, 10 in NB, 6 in NL, 3 in the North, 11 in NS, 104 in ON (every riding except Oxford and Oshawa), 4 in PEI, 40 in QC, 1 in SK)



Otherwise almost 1 in 3 Liberal candidates failed to get their deposit back as you must get 10% or more to get it back.  In Ontario and Atlantic Canada there were only 3 such ridings, but quite a few in Quebec and Western Canada and also in both cases the Liberals were generally above 10% in most urban ridings, but below in most rural.  Saskatchewan is the most interesting as Ralph Goodale's riding stands out like a sore thumb in all the maps, so it appears he won on personal popularity not party label.  In fact he could probably win as an independent in his riding.  Although I didn't do over 5% for the NDP as they got above 5% in every riding or the Tories whom it was only a few ridings, I will for the Liberals as I suspect there were several where they got under 5%.  I do believe though they got at least 2% in every riding.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #963 on: June 12, 2011, 12:48:53 PM »

The Liberal brand is so tarnished in Saskatchewan that Goodale would actually be a good deal safer as an independent.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #964 on: June 12, 2011, 12:52:11 PM »

The Liberal brand is so tarnished in Saskatchewan that Goodale would actually be a good deal safer as an independent.
  True in many ways.  If I am not mistaken, the provincial Liberals are now more of a libertarian party than centrist to centre-left and have completely dissociated themselves from the federal counterparts.  The provincial Liberals opposed blocking the takeover of Potash and also favour privatizing government run liquor stores.  Mind you many provincial Liberals on the left went over to the NDP and many on the right went over to the Saskatchewan Party so not much left of the party.  It is true Goodale would probably be safer as an independent, but since there was little chance of the Liberals winning the last two elections anyways, people were probably content to re-elect since they know he would be in opposition and an effective representative.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #965 on: June 12, 2011, 12:55:05 PM »

True in many ways.  If I am not mistaken, the provincial Liberals are now more of a libertarian party than centrist to centre-left and have completely dissociated themselves from the federal counterparts.

There's still a provincial Liberal party in Saskatchewan? That runs candidates in elections? Amazing.

Of course back in the 60s, the Saskatchewan Liberals were a rural conservative party, much like the Saskatchewan Party is today.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #966 on: June 12, 2011, 04:26:22 PM »

True in many ways.  If I am not mistaken, the provincial Liberals are now more of a libertarian party than centrist to centre-left and have completely dissociated themselves from the federal counterparts.

There's still a provincial Liberal party in Saskatchewan? That runs candidates in elections? Amazing.

Of course back in the 60s, the Saskatchewan Liberals were a rural conservative party, much like the Saskatchewan Party is today.
  There are sort of like the Manitoba Liberal Party or even like the BC Liberal party prior to 1991 as the BC Liberals were shut out of the legislature from 1979-1991 and only came back when the Social Credit imploded.  Maybe they are hoping the same happens to the Saskatchewan Party, but I would count on it anytime soon.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #967 on: June 17, 2011, 01:41:59 AM »

2.  The NDP is unable to appeal to both its Quebec caucus and Western caucus so their support blows up in their face much the way the Mulroney PCs did who tried to do the same thing so the Liberals once again are the main alternative and when people finally get tired of the Tories, they turn to the Liberals.

There are a couple of differences here. The first is that the NDP is no longer a Western party in any meaningful sense; its base of support has shifted entirely, although it remains the only real alternative in most of the West. The second is that the NDP is constituted on an ideological basis, which the Mulroney PCs never had. There are no right-wing NDP MPs who have no real business being in the party; the NDP has always been a social-democratic party, whether its support come from the West or the East. Violent internal spats are far less likely as a result.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #968 on: June 17, 2011, 08:55:47 PM »

I agree the NDP is not a Western party, but I wouldn't call it an Eastern party either.  Rather prior to their breakthrough in Quebec, their support was in pockets, in particular the urban cores with a large number of younger renters, provincial capitals with large number of civil servants, heavily unionized towns, and resource communities in the North and Vancouver Island.  Nonetheless historically they were a Western based party.  In 1988, 33 of the 43 seats they won were in the West.  I am not suggesting this will happen, but it could happen and in terms of the national question there are similiarities between Mulroney in the 80s and Layton now, albeit differences too.  Also the PCs under Mulroney had many on the right in Quebec such as Jean-Pierre Blackburn, Nic Leblanc, Pierrette Venne, and Ricardo Lopez and they also had some who were pretty left leaning in English Canada such as Flora Macdonald, David Crombie, and Alan Redway.  Lets remember, prior to the merger with the Alliance, the PCs were never really a right wing party, but rather a centrist one with a slight rightward tilt, but still included many who leaned to the left.  Those on the hard right only supported them due to their being no alternative.  
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trebor204
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« Reply #969 on: June 18, 2011, 10:40:02 PM »

The poll by poll results should be out this week.

Checking the news releases on elections.ca

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=dec0408&dir=pre&lang=e
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=mar1306&dir=pre&lang=e


the poll results were released under 2 months after the election. (Last 2 elections)

Jan 23/06 --- Mar 13/06 (51 days)
Oct 14/08 --- Dec 4/08  (49 days)

So expect them sometime around June 20
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mileslunn
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« Reply #970 on: June 19, 2011, 01:00:36 AM »

Great, then we can start doing by poll by poll maps as well as maps by municipality and county.  Should be interesting to see if anything unusual shows up.  Look forward to this.  Although I have an idea of how things will look, we shall see if they are actually as I expect or different.  Quebec should be especially interesting as the results are so radically different than the previous election so although expect much of the province to be painted Orange, it will be interesting to see where the Red, Blue, and Torquoise is located.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #971 on: June 19, 2011, 12:59:51 PM »

Here is the Liberals over 5%  Only 20 ridings where they got below 5%, 18 being in the West, mainly Saskatchewan and Alberta and 2 in Quebec (Roberval-Lac Saint Jean and Jonquiere-Alma).  They did get above 2% in every riding however.  I will do the Bloc Quebecois later.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #972 on: June 19, 2011, 01:03:47 PM »

Selkirk-Red river (as it was then called) elected a Liberal MP as recently as 1993.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #973 on: June 19, 2011, 05:55:23 PM »

Selkirk-Red river (as it was then called) elected a Liberal MP as recently as 1993.
  So did Souris-Moose Mountain and Prince Albert as well in 1993.  I think the change there is the Liberals were never strong to begin with and 1993 there was a strong wave with the NDP and PCs being decimated while the Reform Party was still only a BC and Alberta party.  In 1997 the Liberals fared quite poorly in those three ridings suggesting much of the vote was a one time one.  Still does show how far they have fallen nonetheless.
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cinyc
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« Reply #974 on: June 19, 2011, 05:56:52 PM »

On Polling:

A pollster’s painful reckoning: ‘How could I have screwed up so badly?'

Frank Graves, the guy who runs Ekos, studied how he went wrong.  Among his findings, somewhat counter-intuitively, the cell phone sample INCREASED error.  That's because cell phone-only users - generally younger folks - didn't show up to vote.

Canadian pollsters never did seem to have much of a likely voter screen - but a separate Ekos weighting using more of a screen gave better result.

Full report here:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/accurate_polling_flawed_forecast.pdf

I haven't read it yet.
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