Canadian Election Results Thread
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mileslunn
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« Reply #725 on: May 08, 2011, 10:37:43 PM »

The NDP actually came out of no where to almost win heavily Sikh Bramalea-Gore-Malton and they picked up heavily South Asian ridings in suburban Vancouver like Newton-North Delta and Surrey North. Scarborough-Rouge River also went NDP in a shock upset (NDP vote went from 13% to 40%!!) and that seat is 89% (no typo) foreign-born and heavily Tamil (as is the new NDP MP). So for all the talk about Tory inroads in the immigrant communities - there was also an under-reported NDP story happening.


But yeah, I hate when people are referring to the GTA, and call it Toronto. Big difference.


But, going back to the Liberal collapse - more people should be talking about Mississauga-BramptonPeel region has gone entirely Tory, and by a far wider swing than Toronto. The Tory takeover of Brampton, at the very least, could be evidence that their targeting minorities strategy has worked, if only among the Indians. Or that they were right about immigrants only voting Liberal out of nostalgia.


The Tories tend to do best amongst those from the Far East (Chinese, Koreans, Filipinos and Vietnamese) while the South Asians split more along religious lines with the Hindus leaning to the right and Sikhs and Muslims more to the left.  Those from the Middle East, Africa, Latin American and the Caribbean tend to lean more left so no surprise they would switch to the NDP in the face of the collapse of the Liberals.  Amongst those from Europe, it seems the Tories did well amongst the Italians and Polish, while the Portuguese went more the NDP and the Greeks split fairly evenly.  Those from Northern Europe such as the Dutch and Germans were already going largely Tory while the British were polarized between the NDP and Tories much like in Britain.  Otherwise those who voted Labour in Britain probably went NDP while those who went Conservative ibefore immigrating probably stayed Conservative.  In the case of Bramalea-Gore-Malton it is more Sikh than anything.  In BC, at the provincial level, Surrey goes staunchly NDP in the areas where South Asians are largest so not a real surprise here.  Also an Ipsos poll showed the Tories did well amongst Hindus in the 2006 election, but placed third amongst Sikhs and Muslims
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #726 on: May 08, 2011, 10:44:13 PM »

Both the NDP and Tories were western based white man protestant parties until very recently.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #727 on: May 08, 2011, 11:48:35 PM »

Both the NDP and Tories were western based white man protestant parties until very recently.

Rosemary Brown is neither white nor male.  Howard McCurdy isn't white either.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #728 on: May 08, 2011, 11:51:28 PM »

Lincoln Alexander was not white either, but the overwhelming majority of his caucus mates were.
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Torie
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« Reply #729 on: May 09, 2011, 12:41:26 AM »

Why did the NDP do so well in Quebec, while the Bloc collapsed, and why did the Liberals just collapse period?  Just asking.
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Meeker
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« Reply #730 on: May 09, 2011, 12:49:10 AM »

Why did the NDP do so well in Quebec, while the Bloc collapsed, and why did the Liberals just collapse period?  Just asking.

Please see: Thread, Entirety of.

Smiley
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mileslunn
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« Reply #731 on: May 09, 2011, 12:58:41 AM »

Why did the NDP do so well in Quebec, while the Bloc collapsed, and why did the Liberals just collapse period?  Just asking.

In the case of the Bloc Quebecois, many in Quebec realized they were useless as sovereignty will be achieved through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum.  This was not the first close call to being obliterated.  In 2003, it appeared the Liberals under Paul Martin would obliterate the Bloc, but they were revived thanks to the sponsorship scandal.  In 2008, it looked like the Tories would do the same, but their comments on the arts cuts as well as the perception they were too right wing for Quebec saved the Bloc.  This time around there wasn't much to attack the NDP with.  Prior to this election the only thing standing in their way was the fact the NDP favoured a highly centralized government, but they abandoned this in the Sherbrooke declaration.

As for the Liberals, once the NDP pulled ahead in Quebec, many on the left who were more concerned with defeating Harper than voting for any particular party switched to the NDP.  Likewise many Blue Liberals, particularly in Ontario were spooked by the thought of an NDP lead coalition so they bolted to the Tories.  The Liberals actually ran a decent campaign, but being in the centre and having a leader who was less popular than either Layton or Harper made them vulnerable.  Likewise Ignatieff didn't perform that well in the debates.  Had he done well in the debates, I suspect the party would have done much better than they did.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #732 on: May 09, 2011, 03:03:36 AM »

random factoid: the Tory vote dropped (in most cases marginally or very marginally) in all Ottawa ridings.
Yeah, I noticed that too.

Which of course made Orleans the only reasonable liberal target seat in Canada.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #733 on: May 09, 2011, 03:20:29 AM »

I couldn't sleep after 5am and redid the math, using Earl's figures except for the Green transfers.

First, some factoids: Because the NDP comes out on top of all the redistributions (except of the "other" vote), all actually NDP-won seats are safer under AV. So are all seats the Liberals held versus the Conservatives. There are some seats where the NDP beat the Liberals on Tory transfers.
Because the NDP receives a larger share of Liberal transfers than vice versa, the Tories are better placed to keep their under 50% seats vs the Liberals than the NDP. This is somewhat unfortunate as there's more of these.
You should really have at least separate Québec and RoC figures for this exercise. I had to treat the Bloc 2nd prefs as no 2nd pref in RoC, which contributes to the point just above. In Québec, the Bloc comes out looking even more transfer-toxic than it actually would be. Thankfully, because virtually everywhere has the NDP in first or second, it doesn't majorly screw things up except in Haute-Gaspésie. Which comes out as a Liberal pickup due to just 9% of the Dippers going to the BQ. Roflmao. Probably best to just ignore that result.
And Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is the closest seat in the country, a Tory hold by 27 votes. Sad

Anyway, here's the full list (ignoring Haute-Gaspésie)

Tories 145, NDP 117, Liberals 44, BQ 1, Greens 1

Seats changing hands:
Conservative to Liberal: 14
Labrador, Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe, Don Valley E, Don Valley W, Etobicoke C, Kitchener - Waterloo, London NC, Mississauga E - Cooksville, Nipissing - Timiskaning, Pickering - Scarborough E, Scarborough C, Willowdale, Winnipeg SC, Yukon
Conservative to NDP: 7 not counting Montmagny (flipping on recount anyways, but Con in the set of figures I used - that document posted by some Canadian conservative whose name I forget; thanks again!)
South Shore - Saint Margaret's, Lotbinière - Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Bramalea - Gore - Malton, Sault Sainte Marie, Elmwood - Transcona, Palliser, Vancouver Island N
Liberal to NDP: 4
Papineau, Westmount - Ville-Marie, Winnipeg N, Vancouver C
BQ to NDP: 3
Ahuntsic, Bas-Richelieu, Richmond - Arthabaska
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Doctor V
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« Reply #734 on: May 09, 2011, 03:49:21 AM »

I wonder how much British NO voters had a vague idea of those results... Roll Eyes
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #735 on: May 09, 2011, 08:36:23 AM »

Sorry, Green transfers: NDP 33%, Liberals 17%, Tories 16.2%, BQ 5.9%, Other 2.7%, Would not vote 25%.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #736 on: May 09, 2011, 09:06:43 AM »

Much more Conservative and Quebecois subsample, that.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #737 on: May 09, 2011, 05:40:45 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2011, 05:44:39 PM by The Vorlon »

Vorlon, the problem in you theory is that you think to assume the Tories will always remain at this level in Anglo Canada. What you seem to consider a realignment could very well be a temporary surge that could go away as soon at it has come. What if Tories won outside Quebec, but by a more reasonable margin (say 38% instead of 48%) ? They could possibly win a narrow majority in Anglo Canada, but still get trounced in Québec and thus be a minority overall. If the NDP retains its domination on Québec and makes even only small inroads outside, it could very well come to power.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but let's not be too categorical.

In politics, all things are fleeting...My theory is 100% absolutely correct, until it is wrong.... Smiley

That being said, i do think an Ontario/Western Canada political axis has a chance to survive because it is a logical alliance based upon shared interest and positions within Canada.

Western Canada is the economic engine that drives the nation, and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, Ontario, while perhaps not the leader, at least is not an economic anchor - with enlightened leadership they have a good shot at a return to growth and prosperity.

A set of low tax, pro-growth policies are generally in alignment with the interest of both Ontario and Western Canada, while the opposite economic philosophy of high taxes and a greater role for the state are not.

To the degree that Canada as a nation embarks upon large national projects and programs, these programs will be disproportionately paid for by The West and Ontario, and the additional taxation levied on the West and Ontario will accrue to the benefit of (mostly) Quebec. - This is just an economic reality.

I would argue that the West and Ontario are natural allies or at least not natural enemies in the way the The West and Quebec are.

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Make Politics Boring Again
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« Reply #738 on: May 09, 2011, 06:08:33 PM »

In politics, all things are fleeting...My theory is 100% absolutely correct, until it is wrong.... Smiley

That being said, i do think an Ontario/Western Canada political axis has a chance to survive because it is a logical alliance based upon shared interest and positions within Canada.

Western Canada is the economic engine that drives the nation, and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, Ontario, while perhaps not the leader, at least is not an economic anchor - with enlightened leadership they have a good shot at a return to growth and prosperity.

A set of low tax, pro-growth policies are generally in alignment with the interest of both Ontario and Western Canada, while the opposite economic philosophy of high taxes and a greater role for the state are not.

To the degree that Canada as a nation embarks upon large national projects and programs, these programs will be disproportionately paid for by The West and Ontario, and the additional taxation levied on the West and Ontario will accrue to the benefit of (mostly) Quebec. - This is just an economic reality.

I would argue that the West and Ontario are natural allies or at least not natural enemies in the way the The West and Quebec are.

That may be so at the national level (though there are bound to be disagreements here), but is it true at the party level?

The Conservative Party won its majority simply by making inroads in the 905 and outer 416 areas. Many of those voters are rather lukewarm and voted just based on economic concerns (and on this the Liberals should not have ceded ground so easily). The Reform/Alliance heartland in the west is also enthusiastic about social issues. Sooner or later there will be disagreements within the caucus if Harper decides to abandon hot button social issues to strengthen support in Ontario or if he needs to pander to that same Reform/Alliance base to extract money. If the decision makers are too dominated by easterners then I won't be surprised if the Alberta Wildrose Alliance enters federal politics. Then everything the right has done in the past 20 years disappears.

Harper has iron control over his caucus for now, but there is no clear successor once the time for him to go comes (or if he is forced out once the caucus views him as a liability like Mulroney or Thatcher). In the absence of a clear line of succession his departure could cause the type of nasty infighting which left the Liberals in disarray for so long.

I'm not predicting doom and gloom, but one should remember that pride comes before the fall. Certainly the NDP faces a greater risk of falling apart given how important Quebec is now to this formerly anglophone-only party.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #739 on: May 09, 2011, 07:31:51 PM »

Quebec's federal revenue and federal spending share is about even. Quebec does not benefit as much as you say. The 6 "smaller" provinces do to massive degrees.

I have links to prove this but have to go to work. If there is a challenge I will produce these links later tonight.
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Holmes
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« Reply #740 on: May 09, 2011, 07:48:41 PM »

Quebec may be new territory for the NDP, but they haven't had too much trouble maintaining francophone support once they've obtained it. After all, northern Ontario is a very francophone region, relative to the rest of the country, and the NDP is the most popular party there. Granted, Quebec francophones are different from northern Ontario francophones, but not as much as, say, western ones.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #741 on: May 09, 2011, 08:43:32 PM »

In politics, all things are fleeting...My theory is 100% absolutely correct, until it is wrong.... Smiley

That being said, i do think an Ontario/Western Canada political axis has a chance to survive because it is a logical alliance based upon shared interest and positions within Canada.

Western Canada is the economic engine that drives the nation, and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, Ontario, while perhaps not the leader, at least is not an economic anchor - with enlightened leadership they have a good shot at a return to growth and prosperity.

A set of low tax, pro-growth policies are generally in alignment with the interest of both Ontario and Western Canada, while the opposite economic philosophy of high taxes and a greater role for the state are not.

To the degree that Canada as a nation embarks upon large national projects and programs, these programs will be disproportionately paid for by The West and Ontario, and the additional taxation levied on the West and Ontario will accrue to the benefit of (mostly) Quebec. - This is just an economic reality.

I would argue that the West and Ontario are natural allies or at least not natural enemies in the way the The West and Quebec are.

That may be so at the national level (though there are bound to be disagreements here), but is it true at the party level?

The Conservative Party won its majority simply by making inroads in the 905 and outer 416 areas. Many of those voters are rather lukewarm and voted just based on economic concerns (and on this the Liberals should not have ceded ground so easily). The Reform/Alliance heartland in the west is also enthusiastic about social issues. Sooner or later there will be disagreements within the caucus if Harper decides to abandon hot button social issues to strengthen support in Ontario or if he needs to pander to that same Reform/Alliance base to extract money. If the decision makers are too dominated by easterners then I won't be surprised if the Alberta Wildrose Alliance enters federal politics. Then everything the right has done in the past 20 years disappears.

Harper has iron control over his caucus for now, but there is no clear successor once the time for him to go comes (or if he is forced out once the caucus views him as a liability like Mulroney or Thatcher). In the absence of a clear line of succession his departure could cause the type of nasty infighting which left the Liberals in disarray for so long.

I'm not predicting doom and gloom, but one should remember that pride comes before the fall. Certainly the NDP faces a greater risk of falling apart given how important Quebec is now to this formerly anglophone-only party.
  I would argue that British Columbia and Ontario are somewhat natural alliances.  Both are quite urban, have large immigrant populations and don't tend to be to too heavily tilt to either the right or left.  It is true Alberta is a different story but not all the West is like Alberta.  Yes, BC has staunchly conservative areas like the Fraser Valley and Interior, but so does Ontario, particularly Central Ontario and Rural Eastern Ontario.  Likewise the 905 belt is similiar to the Lower Mainland suburbs although the NDP is much weaker.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #742 on: May 09, 2011, 08:47:01 PM »

Quebec may be new territory for the NDP, but they haven't had too much trouble maintaining francophone support once they've obtained it. After all, northern Ontario is a very francophone region, relative to the rest of the country, and the NDP is the most popular party there. Granted, Quebec francophones are different from northern Ontario francophones, but not as much as, say, western ones.

Partially true, although the Tories did well in Eastern Ontario.  Madawaska-Restigouche, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, West Nova, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Ottawa-Orleans, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Nipissing-Timiskaming, and Saint Boniface all have equally large Francophone communities yet went Tory unlike Quebec.  Also most Francophones outside Quebec get much of their information from the English media rather than French media.  In addition Ottawa-Vanier and Beausejour are some of the safest Liberal ridings in the country yet this has not transferred over into Quebec, so while you have a point, one cannot assume the strong NDP support in Northern Ontario will necessarily carry over into Quebec.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #743 on: May 09, 2011, 08:48:49 PM »

BC has a tradition of voting against the federal government of the day.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #744 on: May 10, 2011, 06:35:36 AM »

Partially true, although the Tories did well in Eastern Ontario.  Madawaska-Restigouche, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, West Nova, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Ottawa-Orleans, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Nipissing-Timiskaming, and Saint Boniface all have equally large Francophone communities yet went Tory unlike Quebec.

Only Madawaska-Restigouche and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell are really at all comparable, fwiw. Though I don't think the issue is that speaking French = being a lefty. Northern Ontario is rather working class as is, of course, most of Francophone Quebec (the class element to linguistic conflict in the province is one reason why it has been so nasty). Obviously it's not safe to assume that the NDP's new voters will always stick with it, but the opposite isn't a safe assumption either.

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If Beausejour is one of the safest Liberal ridings in all Canada, then they really are fycked.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #745 on: May 10, 2011, 07:27:20 AM »

Well, yes, so they are. But you know that.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #746 on: May 11, 2011, 07:21:02 PM »

Anybody know when they will have the poll by poll breakdown.  It will be interesting to see this and also start making the maps like we did for the 2008 election.
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trebor204
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« Reply #747 on: May 11, 2011, 08:43:20 PM »

Anybody know when they will have the poll by poll breakdown.  It will be interesting to see this and also start making the maps like we did for the 2008 election.

Checking the news releases on elections.ca

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=releases2008&dir=pre&lang=e
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=releases2006&dir=pre&lang=e


the poll results were released under 2 months after the election. (Last 2 elections)

Jan 23/06 --- Mar 13/06 (51 days)
Oct 14/08 --- Dec 4/08  (49 days)

So expect them sometime around June 20

The polling maps are found at http://ftp://ftp.geogratis.gc.ca/electoral/
however, the 2011 shapefiles are not out yet.






 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #748 on: May 11, 2011, 09:22:16 PM »

Probably need to start a new thread when they come out.  I'll try to do the results by municipality and county.  I suspect Western Canada, Southern Ontario, and New Brunswick will be quite blue even more so than last time around.  Quebec will have a lot more orange and it will be interesting to see in the close races if the Bloc Quebecois still won several polls or if they were annihiliated throughout the province as it seems their support was fairly evenly distributed.  Asides from Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI, I don't think there will be much red.  It will be also interesting to see Toronto and compare it to the mayor's race last Fall.  It seems the Tories did well in the same areas Rob Ford did, while the NDP won in the areas that mostly went for George Smithermann.
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the506
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« Reply #749 on: May 11, 2011, 09:30:36 PM »

As I said in the other thread, as soon as the poll-by-poll results come out (and we get the shapefiles) I'm going to work on something like this...

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/NB2010/

Planning on doing separate party-specific maps and even something showing swing per poll from 2008 if it all pans out.
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