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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 123307 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2011, 04:32:48 PM »
« edited: May 04, 2011, 05:34:56 PM by Comrade Sibboleth »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2011, 05:48:22 PM »

WRT the when is Toronto not Toronto debate... the New York comparison doesn't quite work as the boundary of that city has been settled for a long time; the amalgamation was very recent and fairly controversial. So Scarborough (for example) is both part of Toronto (both legally and for most practical purposes) but isn't in certain other respects. In Britain people tend to identify where they live based on the pre-1974 local government areas (without being aware that that's what they do), and the situation the parts of Canada where there was a mania for forced amalgamations in the 1990s is probably similar.

Though I think there's some Tory representation within the old city anyway; it's not as though those boundaries respected - even the boundary of the current city is breached at one point.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #27 on: May 05, 2011, 10:12:43 AM »

Some random facts... apologies for any errors...

1. Michael Ignatieff is the first Leader of the Opposition to lose his seat since Robert Manion in 1940. He is also the first Leader of the Liberal Party to lose his seat since Mackenzie King in 1945. Let that sink in for a moment.

2. Gilles Duceppe is the first Quebec-based party leader to lose his seat since Fabian Roy (Social Credit) in 1980.

3. Looking at the ridings held by Prime Ministers since 1945, the Tories hold the successor seats to both of Mackenzie King (Prince Albert and Glengarry; the latter being in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell now), of John Diefenbaker (Prince Albert) and Joe Clark (Yellowhead). The NDP now hold the successor seats to those held by Paul Martin (LaSalle—Émard), Jean Chrétien (Saint Maurice, now split between Saint Maurice-Champlain and Berthier-Maskinongé), Brian Mulroney (first Manicouagan then Charlevoix; so the current Manicouagan and Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord ridings) and Lester Pearson (Algoma East; now Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing) and Louis St. Laurent (Québec-Est; split between multiple Quebec City ridings, all of which are now NDP held). The Liberals continue to hold the seats of Pierre Trudeau (Mount Royal) and John Turner (Vancouver Quadra) and the seat that they took from Kim Campbell in 1993 (Vancouver Centre).

4. The NDP now hold the successor seats to four of the six ridings held by previous NDP leaders, up from three before the election. These are both of Tommy Douglas's ridings (Burnaby-Coquitlam - population growth means that multiple ridings cover that area now, but all are NDP - and Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands which is now just Nanaimo-Cowichan. Parts might be in other seats of course), David Lewis (York South, now mostly in York South-Weston - parts are also in Davenport - NDP - and Eglinton-Lawrence - Con. Yeah Toronto redrawing was pretty radical in the late 1970s) and Alexa McDonough (Halifax). Oshawa and Yukon are both held by the Conservatives; the former would be vulnerable to an NDP gain if the Harper government becomes unpopular and the NDP retains its current viability, but the NDP came fourth in the Yukon.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: May 10, 2011, 06:35:36 AM »

Partially true, although the Tories did well in Eastern Ontario.  Madawaska-Restigouche, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, West Nova, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Ottawa-Orleans, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Nipissing-Timiskaming, and Saint Boniface all have equally large Francophone communities yet went Tory unlike Quebec.

Only Madawaska-Restigouche and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell are really at all comparable, fwiw. Though I don't think the issue is that speaking French = being a lefty. Northern Ontario is rather working class as is, of course, most of Francophone Quebec (the class element to linguistic conflict in the province is one reason why it has been so nasty). Obviously it's not safe to assume that the NDP's new voters will always stick with it, but the opposite isn't a safe assumption either.

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If Beausejour is one of the safest Liberal ridings in all Canada, then they really are fycked.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: May 18, 2011, 08:48:48 AM »

The answer is that they aren't, but that people like data so much they are prepared to suspend disbelief...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #30 on: May 21, 2011, 08:56:46 AM »

Most of the area covered by Etobicoke North was NDP at a provincial level for ages. Of course the immigrants that lived there then have been replaced with ones who are... perhaps somewhat less automatically conductive to voting for a social democratic party. Still. The NDP have just shown that they can win the votes of non-Anglo immigrant communities in Toronto, so that particularly frustrating genie is out of its bottle...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #31 on: May 24, 2011, 09:33:24 AM »

By 'historically' you of course mean 'until the late 1950s, with a handful of exceptions'.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #32 on: May 27, 2011, 09:40:10 AM »

Long term averages always remind me of that great book Henry Pelling did on pre-1918 elections in Britain.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: May 27, 2011, 10:04:49 AM »

If we're talking about vote increases, don't forget Saskatchewan either.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #34 on: June 12, 2011, 08:54:46 AM »

I think they'd be better off trying to work out how to remain a viable force first. They have no easily definable social base now, and that is extremely dangerous.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: June 12, 2011, 12:48:53 PM »

The Liberal brand is so tarnished in Saskatchewan that Goodale would actually be a good deal safer as an independent.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #36 on: June 12, 2011, 12:55:05 PM »

True in many ways.  If I am not mistaken, the provincial Liberals are now more of a libertarian party than centrist to centre-left and have completely dissociated themselves from the federal counterparts.

There's still a provincial Liberal party in Saskatchewan? That runs candidates in elections? Amazing.

Of course back in the 60s, the Saskatchewan Liberals were a rural conservative party, much like the Saskatchewan Party is today.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #37 on: June 19, 2011, 01:03:47 PM »

Selkirk-Red river (as it was then called) elected a Liberal MP as recently as 1993.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #38 on: July 02, 2011, 05:41:48 AM »

Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba Smiley

Quite a fightback there.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #39 on: July 03, 2011, 05:17:43 AM »

Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba Smiley

Quite a fightback there.

It's all about the Jets, baby. Quite a renewed optimism in the province.

Pity they couldn't have sorted that out before the federal election Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #40 on: July 04, 2011, 08:36:35 AM »

Its more the sort of thing that only happens only very occasionally; in Britain the last two General Elections when a considerable number of paper candidates were elected were in 1945 and 1997. In Canada though, you have 1993, 1984...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #41 on: August 22, 2011, 09:40:07 AM »

Obviously mentioned elsewhere, but... RIP Jack Layton.
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