Swiss General Elections 2011 (Elections to the Federal Council)

[ZuWo]

I found this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Switzerland_largest_parties_in_cantonal_parliaments.svg


If I understand it, Green is SVP, while the FDP is Blue, they are Liberal in the British sense? and Orance is CVP which is a Christian Democratic party, somewhat like Canada's Red Tories, IIUC.

Thanks for the map. In general, a party which fares very well in cantonal elections in a particular region also does very well in the same place in federal elections. Since Swiss people have plenty of opportunities to participate in referendums, initiatives and local, regional or national elections, people don't usually vote in order to protest against the government.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How comes the SPS doesn't lead in any canton (besides that little one in the North) ? Is their share of the vote extemely homogeneous among the country ?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

the left parties do very well in the French areas, but the Greens seem to have eaten into the vote of the Socialists. Perhaps that's why they are not ahead

[ZuWo]

How comes the SPS doesn't lead in any canton (besides that little one in the North) ? Is their share of the vote extemely homogeneous among the country ?

In general, yes. But we can say they are very strong in urban areas, especially in the bigger towns and in the Romandie (French-speaking part of Switzerland). But since the FDP also have their strongholds in the French-speaking part of the country and usually perform slightly better than the SP because the left is extremely fragmented in that part of Switzerland, the map doesn't show how strong the left really is there.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

what the hell is the "Green liberal party" ?

Seems very similar to the Green Party of Ontario (which I support) which is Eco-Capitalist, as opposed to Eco-Socialist, which most Euro-Greens seem to be.

[ZuWo]

So to give a fictional, but not entirely unrealistic example of the situation in a "typical" canton of the Romandie:

FDP receive 20% of the votes
SP receives 19%
Greens receive 10%
The hard left/communists receive 5%

... (I don't mention the other parties here)

That's why at first glance it might seem the SP isn't extraordinarily strong in this place, but if you look at the overall share of the left, the results are quite impressive

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you ZuWo, that's quite interesting.


Only in Switzerland however, 34% is an "impressive" score for the left.

[ZuWo]

Thank you ZuWo, that's quite interesting.


Only in Switzerland however, 34% is an "impressive" score for the left.

Add 5% to that, I've probably underestimated them. And in bigger towns, of course, the left pretty much controls everything (that's why voting is always a bit frustrating for me in Zurich ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you ZuWo, that's quite interesting.


Only in Switzerland however, 34% is an "impressive" score for the left.

Add 5% to that, I've probably underestimated them. And in bigger towns, of course, the left pretty much controls everything (that's why voting is always a bit frustrating for me in Zurich ).

So in Switzerland too the left is concentrated in urban areas ? That's how things seem to work in a lot of countries, but weirdly France seems to be an exception... Though the left tends to be weaker in the most rural area, our cities aren't PS-dominated at all (nowadays most of them are in their hands, but that's just because the PS had a good year in 2008 municipals). We come nowhere near one-party cities like Chicago or Washington...

[Insula Dei]

The red spot in the North is Basel?

[ZuWo]

Yes, at least in that respect Switzerland is pretty much like other Western countries. In the city of Zurich, for example, the left is at more than 50%, while in a fairly rural place it's the SVP which gets up to 50% of the votes and the left parties hover around a combined 20%. Oh well, I'll have the opportunity to skew the numbers in favour of the right-wing parties in October when I will work as a vote counter in the federal elections.

[ZuWo]

The red spot in the North is Basel?

Yes, the city of Basel, which is a so called half-canton (called "Basel-Stadt"). Together with "Basel-Landschaft" (the more rural part of Basel, the second half-canton of the two) it forms the full canton "Basel".

[Hash]

I have a bunch of old Swiss election maps since 1920 or so by canton. The PS has been the strongest party in the canton of Neuchatel since 1919 in general elections.

[ZuWo]

I have a bunch of old Swiss election maps since 1920 or so by canton.

wow ...

But I'm not surprised about the SP's great showing in Neuchâtel. The map Teddy posted dealt with cantonal elections, though, and apparently the FDP is a tad stronger than the SP on the cantonal level.

[ZuWo]

For those who want to see how the Swiss parties fared in cantonal elections (and to my surprise such people exist ), wikipedia offers a neat overview. It's in German, but if you know what the abbrevations stand for you will be able to interpret the figures.

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantonsparlament#Neuenburg

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

For those who want to see how the Swiss parties fared in cantonal elections (and to my surprise such people exist ), wikipedia offers a neat overview. It's in German, but if you know what the abbrevations stand for you will be able to interpret the figures.

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantonsparlament#Neuenburg

This is exactly what I was looking for! Let me turn it into a table and post it here.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Canton Names:
Blue text means it is French speaking, red German, green Italian. Purple is bi-lingual French and German. Grey is multi-lingual including Romanch.
Orange background means Protestant, Green is Catholic, and Blue is mixed.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

SVP is at half strength in French areas (incl bi-lingual)
SP and CVP are both 1/3rd stronger in French areas
GP is double strength in areas that are French only
FDP is 1/3rd stronger in French areas
SVP is at 1/4th strength in Italian areas

GP are at half strength in Catholic areas
SP is at 2/3rd strength in Catholic areas
CVP is at 1/3rd strength in Protestant areas
CVP is at 15% strength areas that are Protestant only

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Is any party strong with any ethnicity? IE has anyone been able to win more than their "share" of French, Italian, or Romansch voters?

Well Teddy, the SVP does best with German voters, but they still do well enough among the French to be a truly "National" party. Italian regions are a bit more difficult where voters tend to vote for smaller SVP-like Parties, that have a tendency to work with the SVP.

The CVP is a Catholic party, and does poorly in Protestant areas.

The Greens do well in both French areas and Protestant areas; in the French-Protestant canton they are tied for second!

There are a few other peaks and dips in support, but these are the only ones that seem truly notable.

[JonBidinger]

As the largest party to not be represented in the Federal Council, what are the chances that the Green Party will get a seat in the Council elections this year?

[ZuWo]

As the largest party to not be represented in the Federal Council, what are the chances that the Green Party will get a seat in the Council elections this year?

Sorry for such a late reply but I was on holidays (I guess you've already forgotten this question ).

Now to your question: I'd say below 20%. In order to be elected to the Federal Council, a Green candidate must receive the support from both the Social Democrats and at least one other large fraction in parliament (the most likely fraction to support a green candidate is the CVP/glp/EVP fraction). Electing a green federal councillor would mean a massive change to the current governmental system since the government has been made up by the four biggest parties for years, and I doubt a majority of the members of parliament are keen to such an experiment (actually, the fact that there is a BDP federal councillor is a mere "electoral accident" and will likely be corrected in December.
There is, however, a slight chance for the Green Party if they are somehow able to convince the CVP/glp/EVP and SP fraction to vote out one of the sitting FDP councillors or the only SVP councillor or the BDP councillor. Clearly, such a move would be risky for the CVP in the long term and likely turn the Swiss governmental system upside down.

Btw: Great job, Teddy!

[ZuWo]

New poll by the tabloid paper "Blick"

http://www.blick.ch/news/politik/wahlen2011/der-svp-laufen-die-waehler-davon-179684

SVP: 24.8% (-4.1%)
SP: 19.5% (+/- 0%)
FDP: 17.8% (+0.1%)
CVP: 12.4% (-2.5%)
Greens: 9.9% (+0.3%)
BDP: 3.0% (+3.0%)
glp: 7.2% (+5.8%)
others: 5.4% (-2.6%)

Two things to note: 1. The SVP and the glp figures look fishy if you compare them to the figures in other recent polls. 2. The election campaign hasn't really started yet. Importantly, the SVP has more financial ressources than any other party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If those trends hold, it will be the first time the SVP loses ground since several decades, right ?

[ZuWo]

If those trends hold, it will be the first time the SVP loses ground since several decades, right ?

Yes, that's right. The SVP has been on the rise since 1991. Since then, they have increased their vote share from 11.9% to 28.9%, and their strenght has gone hand in hand with the decline of other minor right-wing parties and traditional centrist parties. It seems the party has reached a ceiling now, but if they manage to remain above 25% that's still very impressive for Switzerland.

This link offers a detailed overview of previous elections with some maps.

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/17/02/blank/key/national_rat/parteienstaerke.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting link, thank you ZuWo.

Anyways, even if the SVP loses a couple of percentage points, most of this will be due to BDP's splinter, so it's nothing like an actual decline...