NV-PPP: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10% Palin 8% Pawlenty 8%
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  NV-PPP: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10% Palin 8% Pawlenty 8%
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Author Topic: NV-PPP: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10% Palin 8% Pawlenty 8%  (Read 578 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 28, 2011, 06:38:59 PM »

PPP poll of Nevada.  All of these #s are among "Republican primary voters".  (Those are PPP's words, though of course Nevada uses caucuses for the presidential contest.)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_0428.pdf

Mitt Romney 24%
Donald Trump 16%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Sarah Palin 8%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Ron Paul 5%

without Trump:

Mitt Romney 29%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Sarah Palin 12%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Michele Bachmann 9%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 7%

without Huckabee or Trump:

Mitt Romney 33%
Newt Gingrich 18%
Sarah Palin 14%
Michele Bachmann 11%
Tim Pawlenty 9%
Ron Paul 6%

without Palin or Trump:

Mitt Romney 31%
Newt Gingrich 16%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Michele Bachmann 11%
Tim Pawlenty 10%
Ron Paul 8%

without Huckabee, Palin, or Trump:

Mitt Romney 38%
Newt Gingrich 21%
Michele Bachmann 14%
Ron Paul 10%
Tim Pawlenty 8%

favorability / unfavorability:

Mitt Romney 64%/23% for 41%.
Newt Gingrich 61%/21% for +40%.
Sarah Palin 65%/26% for +39%.
Mike Huckabee 61%/26% for +35%.
Donald Trump 47%/40% for +7%.

Do you think Obama was born in the USA?
yes 28%
no 43%
not sure 29%

Would you be willing to vote for someone who supported a state level health insurance mandate?
yes 7%
no 69%
not sure 23%

who leads among:

Tea Party member: Romney
not Tea Party member: Romney
not sure whether Tea Party member: Trump
Obama was born in USA: Romney
Obama not born in USA: Romney
not sure whether Obama born in USA: Trump
willing to vote for someone who supported health insurance mandate: Romney
not willing to vote for someone who supported health insurance mandate: Romney
not sure: Romney
moderate: Romney
conservative: Romney

There you go.  The overwhelming majority of Republicans in Nevada say they would be unwilling to vote for someone who supported a state level bill requiring everyone to buy health insurance.  Yet those same voters favor Romney.
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California8429
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2011, 10:04:30 PM »

I'm surprised at Newt's polling here, and it's strength compared to how he polls in other states. I mean you've got mormons and libertarians out there, where's his base coming from?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2011, 10:31:53 PM »

I'm surprised at Newt's polling here, and it's strength compared to how he polls in other states. I mean you've got mormons and libertarians out there, where's his base coming from?

His strongest subsample is the "Tea Party supporters".  And 11% isn't that much more than where he's at nationally.  It's within the margin of error of where he is nationally:

link

Any state that isn't dominated by Evangelicals will inevitably have Huckabee doing worse, which means that there's a somewhat larger slice of the pie available for the other candidates.  I assume that's all it is.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2011, 12:05:02 PM »

Wonder how much is because voters still don't know about RomneyCare and how much is because they don't really mean it.
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