PPP: Obama trails Romney in Nevada, approval at 45-52

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_0427513.pdf

President Obama’s net approval rating has taken an 11-point dive since
PPP last polled Nevada in early January, from a positive 50-46 to 45-52. And while he
led four of his possible opponents by one to thirteen points in the Silver State then, he
now trails Mitt Romney by three, and leads the others by only two to 11 in a state he won
by over 12 points in 2008.

Though they are only a fifth of the electorate, essentially all of the president’s decline has
come with independents, who approved 55-41 in January but disapprove almost 2:1 now
(33-65), a 46-point tailspin. Accordingly, Obama has slid with them from -11 to -31
against Romney, from +23 to -17 against Mike Huckabee, and from +27 to -11 against
Newt Gingrich. Even Sarah Palin leads the president by two with independents, which
she has not in almost any other state.

[California8429]

I an stunned that Gingrich is only down 4 points while Palin is down 11

[Eraserhead]

NV polling kind of sucks. See the 2008 presidential election and the 2010 Senate race for more...

[Dgov]

That poll is . . .kinda weird.  I mean, Romney beats Obama by 3, but only because he wins Generation X by 23 and loses Generation Y by 33 and runs ever with older voters.

However, Trump loses by 6 to Obama, despite holding him to a 3-point edge with Generation Y and still leading by 12 with Generation X, because he loses Boomers by 12 and the elderly by 11.

Think this is just polling error?  I mean, Obama creams everyone else but Gingrich among young voters.  I'm not seeing why so many Gen Yers would vote for Trump but not Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

John McCain................................................... 44%
Barack Obama................................................ 49%

Obama beat McCain by 12 in 2008 in Nevada.

[Mr. Morden]

Results in slightly more readable format:

Mitt Romney 46% Barack Obama 43%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 43%
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 42%
Barack Obama 47% Donald Trump 41%
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 39%

Barack Obama (D) 42% Mitt Romney (R) 34% Donald Trump (I) 20%
Barack Obama (D) 44% Mike Huckabee (R) 30% Donald Trump (I) 21%

favorability / unfavorability:

Mitt Romney 43%/43% for even.
Mike Huckabee 36%/45% for -9%.
Donald Trump 39%/52% for -13%.
Newt Gingrich 33%/53% for -20%.
Sarah Palin 34%/61% for -27%.

[DrScholl]

Pollsters do seem to miss something in Nevada at times. What I see in the poll is that the Republican ceiling is between 41% and 46%, which is close to McCain and Angle numbers.

[Ben Romney]

Tender Benson where`s your  map??

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Palin leads Obama by 2 with Indies?

Didn't see that coming. This is the sample that people were saying had too few indies right? If so, could be a result of small sample size.

[pbrower2a]

Pollsters do seem to miss something in Nevada at times. What I see in the poll is that the Republican ceiling is between 41% and 46%, which is close to McCain and Angle numbers.

Nevada politics seem to depend upon GOTV drives that can be very effective because the most effective ones win, and the ineffective ones lose.

It was easy to underestimate the electoral strength of Barack Obama in 2008 and Harry Reid in 2010. Door-to-door canvassing is far more effective in a state in which 90% of the people live within 20 miles of downtown Las Vegas or downtown Reno.

Fire up the Democratic base, and Democrats win.

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Trump

[Emperor]

Strange, for some reason (since ca. 2000 election) NV polls mostly overestimated GOP support..

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't the reason for NV polls being off the undersampling of Hispanics?  At least in 2010, that is.  The two biggest surprises in the Senate were CO and NV, which were both states in which the Dems overperformed the polls.  I thought the pollsters simply underestimated Hispanic turnout in those states, and that's a large part of why they were wrong.

[Dgov]

Isn't the reason for NV polls being off the undersampling of Hispanics?  At least in 2010, that is.  The two biggest surprises in the Senate were CO and NV, which were both states in which the Dems overperformed the polls.  I thought the pollsters simply underestimated Hispanic turnout in those states, and that's a large part of why they were wrong.

Not really an under-sampling of Hispanics. . . PPP's last poll of Nevada (which gave Angle a 1-point lead) had a sample of 69-20-8-3 White-Hispanic-Black-Other, compared to an exit poll of 71-16-6-7 (according to CNN, which gave Reid a 6-point lead).

Where the jump occurs is that in the PPP sample Reid wins Hispanics by only 13 points (48-35 with a TON going for the 3rd party candidates), but in the Exit Polls he wins them by 39 (69-30).  This is also present in the Governor polling too, where young Reid had a 6-point lead with Hispanics in the PPP poll, and a 32-point lead with them in the CNN Exit Poll

For all the Other Ethnic groups, the margins are about the same in each poll (though Angle did 3 points worse with Whites in the Exit Poll than the PPP

It seem like Democratic support among Hispanics is consistently under-polled before election day.

Colorado on the other hand, i can't really tell (Hispanic % is too low o be significant in exit poll), but based on the White vote, (52-46 Buck in PPP, 51-44 CNN), it looks like there was a similar phenomenon (since the CNN poll is both better for Buck and Whiter than the PPP one, where he lead by 1) where Buck's PPP Hispanic percentage (40%) was an over-estimate of what he actually got.  Though this effect is much smaller than the one in Nevada.


Also, i did a quick check, and it looks like Nevada is the only state in the country that has this trend (Democrats doing much better in Exit polls than in Pre-election Polls with Hispanics).  This may also be the case in New Mexico (no PPP polls or exit polls there), but I remember that the other Pre-election polls matched up with her 7-point win fairly well, so i doubt it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont think NC is a btg state anymore despite what the polls says and mccrorys sizeable lead against perdue. The state is trending red. Despite this poll I can see obama winning Co and losing nV.

[Niemeyerite]

Tender Brason, why is PA republican in a Obama-Romney match-up? I haven't seen any polls where romney's leading.

[Brittain33]

I'm not seeing why so many Gen Yers would vote for Trump but not Romney.

Non-serious celebrity appeal vs. absolutely no appeal to kids. 

[Dgov]

Tender Brason, why is PA republican in a Obama-Romney match-up? I haven't seen any polls where romney's leading.

I think he's referring to this:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0412513.pdf

Romney has a 1-point (insignificant technically) lead in PA, and most other Republicans are close.  Even Palin is polling even with Obama's actual 11-point margin in the state in 2008.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'm hesitant to believe this, but Obama does seem to be bleeding support. A Romney victory in Nevada seems very possible.

[Niemeyerite]

Tender Brason, why is PA republican in a Obama-Romney match-up? I haven't seen any polls where romney's leading.

I think he's referring to this:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0412513.pdf

Romney has a 1-point (insignificant technically) lead in PA, and most other Republicans are close.  Even Palin is polling even with Obama's actual 11-point margin in the state in 2008.

Thanks.