OH-Wenzel Strategies (R): Sen. Brown (D) leads everyone by double-digits
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  OH-Wenzel Strategies (R): Sen. Brown (D) leads everyone by double-digits
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Author Topic: OH-Wenzel Strategies (R): Sen. Brown (D) leads everyone by double-digits  (Read 834 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 26, 2011, 11:13:03 AM »

Brown, a longtime Congressman, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, when he defeated incumbent Republican Mike DeWine.  Brown won that race in what was considered a significant year for Democratic Party gains both statewide and nationally, but – if the election were held today – he would hold his seat against any of these three GOP challengers.

* Former state Treasurer, Ohio Secretary of State, and 2006 candidate for governor Ken Blackwell, Brown would win by a 49% to 36% margin.

* Against sitting Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor, he would win by a 50% to 36% margin.

* Against sitting Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, Brown would win 48% support, compared to 33% support for Mandel.

This is good news for Brown, in large part because of his disastrous re-election numbers otherwise. He benefits from the fact that the field of opponents has not yet taken shape.  That, of course, will change, and quickly, as 2012 U.S. Senate races across the country are shaping up with a speed that is unusual, even for national politics.

The Wenzel Strategies survey shows things get interesting in a prospective GOP primary.  In a Republican Primary election three-way match-up between these three GOP candidates, Blackwell leads with 33%, Taylor finishes second with 19%, while Mandel plays third-fiddle with 15% support – including only those voters who said they were most likely to participate in the Ohio GOP primary election.

http://www.wenzelstrategies.com/blog/polls/senator-brown-leads-gop-challengers-in-new-ws-election-poll/
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King
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2011, 04:13:50 PM »

None of these three will be the nominee, but good news for Brown nonetheless.
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HST1948
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2011, 04:51:44 PM »

None of these three will be the nominee, but good news for Brown nonetheless.

Who do you think the republican nominee will be, and do you think that they he/she will be stronger, weaker or about the same as these three?
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King
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2011, 11:52:05 PM »

None of these three will be the nominee, but good news for Brown nonetheless.

Who do you think the republican nominee will be, and do you think that they he/she will be stronger, weaker or about the same as these three?

I'm not sure.  Perhaps one of the House members.  Ohio is too diverse of a Republican state for them to settle on a has-been like Ken Blackwell. 

Brown will either get a solid grassroots challenger we haven't yet met or a sacrificial lamb we don't need to bother learning about.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2011, 07:27:47 AM »

Obama should be able to win OH despite Kasich being Gov.   We had a poor senate candidate that hurt the whole ticket in 2010.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2011, 06:25:23 AM »

Obama should be able to win OH despite Kasich being Gov.   We had a poor senate candidate that hurt the whole ticket in 2010.

     This thread is about Sherrod Brown. It has nothing to do with President Obama, or at least had nothing to do with him until you brought him up.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2011, 07:39:15 AM »


Sherrod Brown is a strong supporter of Obama, and he will be campaigning for the commander in chief in this key swing state. Lee Fisher wasn't enthusiastically supported by the establishment in OH, not much campaigning was done on his behalf. Lackluster candidates hurt other candidates in statewide races.
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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2011, 10:37:52 AM »

None of these three will be the nominee, but good news for Brown nonetheless.

What makes you say that? I doubt Blackwell runs, let alone wins the primary if he does. But I can't fathom how either Taylor or Mandel doesn't otherwise wind up nominated. Jim Jordan could excite the ultra-right, but I don't think he's running either. Taylor and Mandel both have strong party backing which counts A LOT in the OH GOP.

The big question is whether a deal can be worked out to avoid a primary, as is the OH GOP's forte. If not, the secondary question is whether a prominent ultra-conservative like Blackwell or Jordan will jump into the fray and try to squeeze out a win by getting True Believers to put him over the top in a 3 way race.

With respect, the OH GOP isn't prone to nominating "grass roots challengers" or sacrificial lambs in any race that is even remotely competitive.
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