SC-ARG: Huckabee slightly ahead of Romney, Trump 3rd

[Tender Branson]

20% Huckabee
18% Romney
13% Trump
10% Palin
  9% Gingrich
  5% Bachmann
  4% Giuliani
  2% Barbour
  2% Rand Paul
  2% Pawlenty
  1% Cain
  1% Daniels
  1% Ron Paul
  1% Santorum
  0% Huntsman
  0% Johnson
  0% Karger
  0% Pataki
  0% Roemer
11% Undecided

Among likely primary voters considering themselves to be Republicans, Huckabee leads with 23%, followed by Romney at 16%, Gingrich at 12%, Trump at 11%, and Palin at 10%.

Among independents, Romney leads with 26%, with Trump at 21%, Huckabee at 11%, and Palin at 10%.

Among Tea Party supporters, Huckabee leads with 18%, followed by Trump at 16%, Gingrich and Romney at 12% each, and Palin at 10%.

Among those saying that they are not Tea Party supporters or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 25%, followed by Huckabee at 22%, Trump at 11%, and Palin at 10%.

Among those saying they will definitely vote in the Republican primary, Huckabee and Romney are tied at 19% each, followed by Trump at 14%, and Gingrich and Palin at 10% each.

...

About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (453 Republicans, 144 independents, and 3 Democrats).

Sample Dates: April 18-23, 2011

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were being held today between (names rotated) Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Fred Karger, Sarah Palin, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Charles Roemer, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not?

Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican presidential primary?

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc

[tmthforu94]

Great news for Governor Romney!

[Tender Branson]

Great news for Governor Romney!

Actually not great news for anyone, because ARG suxx as a pollster.

But maybe they are good this cycle, who knows ?

In 2008 at least, they estimated that Huckabee would win SC and that Obama would only win SC by 3 points ...

McCain won and Obama won by about 30 points.

I still think that Bachmann will win surprisingly in Iowa and then in South Carolina.

[Tender Branson]

But:

The good thing is that they are very likely to poll Florida and Nevada as well this week and PPP also polled Nevada this weekend, so we could have 2 Nevada polls out this week.

[Bull Moose Base]

South Carolina primary is open to Independents?

[tpfkaw]

South Carolina primary is open to Independents?

Yes, which is why McCain won.

[Tender Branson]

It is also worth noting that Romney does much better this time with SC Independents than in the 2008 primary. In 2008, Romney did better among Republicans than among Indys, but this time he's doing 10 points better among Indys than among Republicans.

[Yelnoc]

Great news for Governor Romney!

I still think that Bachmann will win surprisingly in Iowa and then in South Carolina.

Oh God, I hope not.

[Mr. Morden]

In 2008 at least, they estimated that Huckabee would win SC and that Obama would only win SC by 3 points ...

McCain won and Obama won by about 30 points.

Ah yes, ARG underestimating Obama's margin of victory in SC by 27 points.  Those were good times.  They also had Clinton winning Iowa by 9 points, McCain winning Michigan, and Romney winning both Florida and California.  (And Huckabee winning SC, as you mentioned.)  That is a singularly awful record.

And those were just from their final polls before the primaries in question.  They also had very curious results in the year leading up to the primaries as well, like showing Giuliani leading both IA and NH during the summer of 2007, when everyone else had Romney taking the lead in both states.