Democracy Corps (D): Romney beats Obama among likely voters

[Tender Branson]

April 10-12, 2011 - 1000 Likely Voters:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Strongly approve.................................................................24
Somewhat approve.............................................................20

Somewhat disapprove.........................................................13
Strongly disapprove.............................................................37

Total approve.....................................................................44
Total disapprove................................................................50

...

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

Democrat Barack Obama....................................................44
Lean Democrat Barack Obama............................................2

Republican Mitt Romney.....................................................46
Lean Republican Mitt Romney.............................................2

(Other candidate).................................................................3
Lean (Other candidate)........................................................0

(Undecided)..........................................................................3
(Refused)..............................................................................0
(Will not vote in 2012)...........................................................0

Total Democrat Barack Obama........................................46
Total Republican Mitt Romney.........................................48
Total (Other candidate)......................................................3

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/fq4.pdf

[You kip if you want to...]

How are they supposed to know what a "likely" voter is when the election is 19 months away?

[Tender Branson]

How are they supposed to know what a "likely" voter is when the election is 19 months away?

First they asked if people are registered to vote.

Then they asked people if they voted in 2008.

Then they asked people if they voted in 2010.

Then they asked these people the following question:

I know it is a long way off, but what are the chances of your voting in the election for President and Congress in 2012: are you almost certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote?

Almost certain......................................................................89
Probably..............................................................................11

[Tender Branson]

The most likely scenario for an Obama-win in this match-up:

[Brittain33]

Does that mean it's screening out people who skipped 2010? I need some straws to grasp at.

[King]

The dangerous thing about Romney is that his track record as Governor is actually liberal enough that when he goes moderate for the general election he might actually get votes from disgruntled Obama supporters.

But it's also for this reason he has no chance of getting the nomination.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The dangerous thing about Romney is that his track record as Governor is actually liberal enough that when he goes moderate for the general election he might actually get votes from disgruntled Obama supporters.

But it's also for this reason he has no chance of getting the nomination.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvI