FL-Suffolk: Only Romney ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

Is your opinion of Barack Obama generally favorable or generally unfavorable?

48% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

41% Approve
48% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor?

28% Approve
49% Disapprove

If the General Election for United States President were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney for whom will you vote or toward whom would you LEAN at this time?

43% Romney
42% Obama

How about Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee?

44% Obama
41% Huckabee

How about Barack Obama and Tim Pawlenty?

41% Obama
28% Pawlenty

How about Barack Obama and Michelle Bachmann?

45% Obama
30% Bachmann

How about Barack Obama and Newt Gingrich?

47% Obama
36% Gingrich

How about Barack Obama and Sarah Palin?

52% Obama
34% Palin

How about Barack Obama and Donald Trump?

49% Obama
34% Trump

How about Barack Obama and Haley Barbour?

47% Obama
26% Barbour

How about Barack Obama and Ron Paul?

48% Obama
30% Paul

This past November, in Florida's election for Governor for whom did you vote: Republican Rick Scott, Democrat Alex Sink, Independence Party Candidate Peter Allen, Independent Michael Arth, Independent Farid Khavari, Independent C.C. Reed, or Independent Daniel Imperato {Im-per-AH-toe}, or did you not vote?

40% Scott
40% Sink

If you had the chance to vote again today would you vote for current Governor Republican Rick Scott, his former opponent Democrat Alex Sink, or someone else?

41% Sink
31% Scott

...

The statewide survey of 600 Florida registered voters was conducted April 10-12, 2011. The margin of error is +/-4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted at 6 p.m. Wednesday, April 13, 2011, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Florida.Statewide.Marginals.April.12.2011.pdf

[Tender Branson]

The new map:

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Lief 🗽]

Are you going to start a Trump map? He's polling ahead of Palin and Romney in a number of national polls.

[Mehmentum]

Are you going to start a Trump map? He's polling ahead of Palin and Romney in a number of national polls.

He does have the name recognition to make head to head polls somewhat meaningfull...

[opebo]

Here's a map giving all the states in which a Republican has polled ahead of or tied with Obama to the GOP, and leaving he unpolled states as they were in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Are you going to start a Trump map? He's polling ahead of Palin and Romney in a number of national polls.

He does have the name recognition to make head to head polls somewhat meaningfull...

If PPP adds Trump to their state polls - yes.

Otherwise it doesn't make sense, because we wouldn't get enough state polls where Trump is included.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can see Obama beating Romney in florida not withstanding this poll. I think the only one that can really beat Obama in Florida is Trump or Giuliani. PPP I think is very accurate in their polling and they have Obama ahead of Romney.

[pbrower2a]

I can see Obama beating Romney in florida not withstanding this poll. I think the only one that can really beat Obama in Florida is Trump or Giuliani. PPP I think is very accurate in their polling and they have Obama ahead of Romney.

The biggest threat to President Obama winning Florida is... Governor Rick Scott. Governor Scott is the J R Ewing of American politics, and in view of his past in business, I can easily see him doing things that Katharine Harris stopped short of doing. It won't be because Rick Scott is popular but instead because he believes that the Republican nominee for President must win if he is not to be in some personal problems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Nelson will win comforably, since Mack decided not to run and I think will in fact be an ally in Obama keeping Florida in the Democratic column.  Florida, like Oh, IA, and NM are bellweathers Obama won them by 6 pts or more last time.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can see Obama beating Romney in florida not withstanding this poll. I think the only one that can really beat Obama in Florida is Trump or Giuliani. PPP I think is very accurate in their polling and they have Obama ahead of Romney.

What advantage does Giuliani have over Romney in FL? Trump is fast competing to become the next Lyndon LaRouche.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What advantage does Giuliani have over Romney in FL? Trump is fast competing to become the next Lyndon LaRouche.
[/quote]

I was referring to the CBS time poll that showed Giuliani the only one defeating Obama. As far as Trump or Giuliani they are mainstream conservatives and won't scare away older voters as far as dismantling of The Great Society Programs like social security and medicare. Romney has move further to the right and did poorly in the 2008 Florida primaries. I can very well see a mainstream conservative beating Obama is a swing state like Florida than a right wing conservative. Florida is great swing state that will test the Ryan-Medicare voucher program that all of the GOP candidates have signed onto.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was referring to the CBS time poll that showed Giuliani the only one defeating Obama. As far as Trump or Giuliani they are mainstream conservatives and won't scare away older voters as far as dismantling of The Great Society Programs like social security and medicare. Romney has move further to the right and did poorly in the 2008 Florida primaries. I can very well see a mainstream conservative beating Obama is a swing state like Florida than a right wing conservative. Florida is great swing state that will test the Ryan-Medicare voucher program that all of the GOP candidates have signed onto.

Basing judgements on one poll is never a good idea. As we know have two polls showing Romney beating Obama.

Romney didn't do poorly in FL, he came in second behind McCain and many say that it was Charlie Crist's last minute endorsment of McCain that tipped the contest in McCain's favor as Romney led in many of the last polls. Rudy on the other hand did do poorly in Florida as he did in many states. Rudy was/is a deeply flawed candidate for a variety of reasons. Thats why people abandoned him so easily. They didn't realize that he was Pro-Choice and a liberal on many issues. They didn't know of the scandals, divorces, etc. He has no path to the nomination this time. People are long past the "American's Mayor" honeymoon.

Romney is a mainstream conservative. He moved to the right on the issues he needed to, to ensure that he could check the boxes with the Social conservatives, to get a leg up on Rudy and McCain. Are you seriously trying to take this repositioning and using it to put Romney in a league with Bachmann or something of that nature? That seems to be the way you are grouping the candidates here and that is completely illogical and incorrect. Listen to him or read his book and you will realize he is clearly not to be cast with Bachman or Palin. The thought process is different as is the style. And politics is a lot about style as much as it is substance.


Trump is making crazy statements all over the place. He also will not be winning the GOP nomination, most likely. He endorsed Obama's foreign policy in 2008, called Bush evil and the worst President ever (He now says Obama is the worst ever), and said Obama would be very great if not the greatest President. His attempt to connect with evangelicals on 700 club makes Romney look like the good ole baptist minister in connecting with those people. It was awkward and painful. There is any number of statements that can be used against him, as well as various controversies, financial wheeling and dealing, etc etc.

[The Mikado]

Excluding Palin for a second (does anyone seriously think she'll run?), the candidate that comes off the worst is Gingrich, in whose case there are so many fewer undecideds.  When 83% of the public has already made up their mind on a matchup and the higher candidate gets 47%, that's really a bad sign.

I'm not making any presumptions here, I'm just sayin'...given that Gingrich starts off with much higher name recognition and much worse numbers, he faces a huge, huge problem.

[Emperor]

If Romney wins the nomination he will pick Marco Rubio as his running mate!
Remember my words. Thats his only chance. He must win in FL (as any other GOP candidate). With Romney/Rubio the GOP will take Florida in a close election ( +/- 2% nationwide)  for sure.