California Gubernatorial Election 2014

[redcommander]

I don't see Brown running for reelection considering his age, and Democrats have an extremely strong bench, but who is out there for Republicans to run?

[Napoleon]

It's possible they don't make it to the top two,  isn't it?

[freepcrusher]

A few dem possibilities:

Gavin Newsom (current Lt Gov and former SF mayor)   
Darrell Steinberg (SF Senator and President Pro Tem)    
Ellen Corbett (Alameda County area Senator and Majority Leader)
Cruz Bustamante (former Lt Governor)

For the republicans, I could see someone like Senate minority leader Bob Dutton from Rancho Cucamonga or Senate Minority Whip Doug LaMalfa (his district is similar to Herger's district)

[freepcrusher]

BTW, does anyone know what Chris Cox is up to these days? Maybe he could try running for governor.

[redcommander]

BTW, does anyone know what Chris Cox is up to these days? Maybe he could try running for governor.

He's too conservative to win statewide unfortunately. He left the SEC and returned to practicing law last I heard.

[Napoleon]

Condi Rice? At least it'd be somewhat interesting.

[Хahar 🤔]

Cruz Bustamante (former Lt Governor)

Haha. Not happening.

I could see Kamala Harris mounting a run, although she is probably less electable than any other potential candidate.

[Associate Justice PiT]

It's possible they don't make it to the top two,  isn't it?

     If someone like Tom Campbell were to run & then receive a challenge from the right, it would be very possible. Don't see it happening in a scenario with a de facto Republican candidate, though.

[tpfkaw]

I know in Washington it's the top vote getter from the top two parties, not the top two vote getters - isn't that the case in CA now too?

[Associate Justice PiT]

I know in Washington it's the top vote getter from the top two parties, not the top two vote getters - isn't that the case in CA now too?

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_14,_Top_Two_Primaries_Act_(June_2010)

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[Miles]

I'd like to see Abel Maldonado run again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd like to see Abel Maldonado run again.

He's (tentatively) running for Congress in 2012. He set up a campaign account, though I'm sure if the lines don't end up looking viable, he'll probably just pass on it.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'd like to see Abel Maldonado run again.

No, you don't. Everyone is better off with Abel gone.

[redcommander]

I'd like to see Abel Maldonado run again.

No, you don't. Everyone is better off with Abel gone.

Especially the Republicans. The man was a joke. He couldn't even beat Newsom, which is more laughable than Cooley losing to Harris.

[Napoleon]

Why? Newsing is a great fit for California. It will be either him or Lockyer defeating a Republican in 2014.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Why? Newsing is a great fit for California. It will be either him or Lockyer defeating a Republican in 2014.

     Newsom's reputation isn't that great. He'd win a general no problem, but I don't seem him actually making it to the general.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why? Newsing is a great fit for California. It will be either him or Lockyer defeating a Republican in 2014.

Gavin Newsom was booed at the Giants' World Series victory parade. Everyone hates him. That doesn't necessarily mean he wouldn't be elected, of course, but it might make it somewhat difficult.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Newsom has all but announced. Of course there are other possibilities.
Don't forget that we've switched to open primaries, which will benefit well funded "moderates".

[Nichlemn]

It's possible they don't make it to the top two,  isn't it?

For that to happen, there would need to be two strong Democrats and almost certainly two or more strong Republicans. Also, if it appears possible that one party will be shut out of a run-off, we might see strategic voting to get it back in.

That does wonder if we'll ever see any "France 2002" style run-offs, maybe at the legislative level. Something like:

Generic GOPer 20%
Generic GOPer 20%
Generic Dem 15%
Generic Dem 15%
Generic Dem 15%
Generic Dem 15%

A Republican is guaranteed to win the run-off despite only winning 40% between them in the first round.

[Napoleon]

It's possible they don't make it to the top two,  isn't it?

For that to happen, there would need to be two strong Democrats and almost certainly two or more strong Republicans. Also, if it appears possible that one party will be shut out of a run-off, we might see strategic voting to get it back in.

That does wonder if we'll ever see any "France 2002" style run-offs, maybe at the legislative level. Something like:

Generic GOPer 20%
Generic GOPer 20%
Generic Dem 15%
Generic Dem 15%
Generic Dem 15%
Generic Dem 15%

A Republican is guaranteed to win the run-off despite only winning 40% between them in the first round.

I was thinking it'd be the Republicans who didn't make it to the run-off.

[Nichlemn]

That was the first part. But it got me thinking about the possibility of off-party candidates winning in run-offs (which could be Republicans, but it could also be Democrats in Republican districts).

[tpfkaw]

I suppose the closest "France 2002" analogue would be along the lines of:

GOP: 25%
AIP: 20%
Dem: 19%
Dem: 18%
Dem: 14%
Green: 2%
Libertarian: 2%
Peace & Freedom: 1%

[freepcrusher]

anyone want to try to convince Cal Dooley to run? He seems like somebody who has a lot of crossover appeal and could help spur the economy. He would probably have trouble in the primaries so the dems would probably have to get a lot of DTS voters to vote for him in the primary

[Хahar 🤔]

Why would we want that?

[bgwah]

I know in Washington it's the top vote getter from the top two parties, not the top two vote getters - isn't that the case in CA now too?

In Washington, it's the top two candidates regardless of party. We haven't had any major races that haven't been D vs R yet, but we've only been using the system since 2008. We've seen some Ds and Rs eliminated when they run in a very solid district for the other party, though. The only notable exception I can think of off the top of my head is a State Senate race last year that had two Ds and two Rs, with the two Rs moving onto the general.

...But yeah, back to California! So it seems to be generally accepted that Brown won't run for re-election?