Peruvian elections 2011

[redcommander]

Ugghh just what Latin America needs, another Chavez crony in office. I just hope the electorate begrudgingly supports Fujimori.

[JonBidinger]

Keiko Fujimori really rubs me the wrong way, and I feel in many ways she is just a puppet for a continuation of her father's (and his crony's) government. If she gets elected I want to see how long she waits before pardons are issued.
On the other hand, I rather don't like Humala's reported closeness with Chavez, but I would go with him over Fujimori. It does appear to me that he is trying to pull a Lula, and that may end up being a good thing if he really has moderated since the last go-round.

[RodPresident]

Many believe that a general amnesty can occurs either with Humala or Fujimori, although her political support is more weak. With this, papa Fujimori, Abimael Guzman (Sendero Luminoso) and Humala's brother (Antauro) can get out of jail. Montesinos would be kept on jail as scape goat.

[Bacon King]

For the record, Fujimori has consistently been 1% to 4% ahead of Humala in all recent polls.

[redcommander]

For the record, Fujimori has consistently been 1% to 4% ahead of Humala in all recent polls.

She will probably win, but the run-off is still between two people it shouldn't have been between. Both are a threat to democracy. The only decent result was that neither Humala or Fujimori's parties received majorities in congress.

[Tender Branson]

Humala has pulled ahead in the final polls, but it`s still very much a toss-up:

LIMA - Ollanta Humala, a left-wing candidate, has taken a narrow lead over right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori in polls released in the final hours ahead of Sunday's presidential run-off election in Peru.

Peruvian election law prohibits polling firms from publicly disclosing the results of their surveys in the final week of campaigning, though they continue polling for private companies.

A poll of 4,000 people by Ipsos showed Humala ahead of Fujimori by 3.8 percentage points, the first of a batch of recent surveys to break a statistical tie.

Humala has sought to convince voters that he has abandoned a radical past, including ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and would prudently manage one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

Fujimori is trying to distinguish herself from her father, former President Alberto Fujimori, who is in jail for human rights abuses and corruption.

Below are the latest polls, which have margins of error of between 1.4 and 3 percentage points. The polls were conducted by mock vote, where those surveyed filled out and submitted ballots.

SURVEY GROUP FUJIMORI HUMALA

- Datum 49.2 50.8

- Ipsos Apoyo 48.1 51.9

- CPI 49.5 50.5

- Catholic University 48.2 51.8

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43281088

[Jackson]

Yes Peruvian people, elect Fujimori. I heard she will be only half the fascist her father was.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems pretty damn close. Despite the awfulness of both candidates, it should be a pretty interesting election to follow.

[Edu]

From what I'm reading all exit polls seem to be in agreement and show Humala winning 52/53% against Fujimori's 48/47%

[big bad fab]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

[Niemeyerite]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

he cannot be a radical with that Congress. It's impossible. Gana Perú hasn't got a majority of seats.

ANd yes, Humala won. Those 3 exit polls all say the same. two of them give a 5 point lead for Ollanta and the other gives him a 5.2% margin ^^
So, the more democratic choice won!!

[big bad fab]

Sure, he is not another Chavez and he can't be very powerful, but he can waste a lot of time and energy and opportunities, like Correa or, more simply, like PAN presidents in Mexico.

Let's hope he'll follow the path of Alan Garcia, being more reasonable than expected.

[redcommander]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

he cannot be a radical with that Congress. It's impossible. Gana Perú hasn't got a majority of seats.

ANd yes, Humala won. Those 3 exit polls all say the same. two of them give a 5 point lead for Ollanta and the other gives him a 5.2% margin ^^
So, the more democratic choice won!!

Chavez if I remember correctly didn't have a majority in his first congress either, and look how Venezuela turned out. Humala could implement a referendum that would give him sweeping powers like Chavez did.

[Meeker]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

he cannot be a radical with that Congress. It's impossible. Gana Perú hasn't got a majority of seats.

ANd yes, Humala won. Those 3 exit polls all say the same. two of them give a 5 point lead for Ollanta and the other gives him a 5.2% margin ^^
So, the more democratic choice won!!

Chavez if I remember correctly didn't have a majority in his first congress either, and look how Venezuela turned out. Humala could implement a referendum that would give him sweeping powers like Chavez did.

You seem to know little about Peruvian politics (or Venezuelan) and should stop right now.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

he cannot be a radical with that Congress. It's impossible. Gana Perú hasn't got a majority of seats.

But he might attempt an autogolpe!

Oh, wait, never mind, that was Fujimori.

[Edu]

So far Humala is winning by about 20.000 votes (50,1% to 49,9%) with 78% reporting, but it's mostly from urban areas so I don't think an Humala victory is in doubt.

[Tender Branson]

81% or 85% counted (don't know what the difference between "% de actas procesadas" and "% de actas contabilizadas" is):

6,494,970 votes - 50.71% - Humala
6,313,992 votes - 49.29% - Fujimori

Turnout is 85.2% so far.

http://www.elecciones2011.onpe.gob.pe/resultados2011/2davuelta

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, good to see the least horrible candidate won...

[Edu]

81% or 85% counted (don't know what the difference between "% de actas procesadas" and "% de actas contabilizadas" is)

Ok, I've been reading a bit more about the results in the first round and apparently the % de actas contabilizadas" means that's the percentage of results that have reached the electoral centre (ONPE, Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales), so according to the latest numbers 81% of the results of the country have arrived to the ONPE.
The "% de actas procesadas" is the percentage of results that are actually processed and already counted and factored into the results we are getting. But that percentage is not the votes processed nationwide but the votes processed out of the ones that reached the ONPE.
That means that so far 84% of the votes that arrived to the ONPE were counted.

I'm reading that to get the percentage of votes that have been counted nationwide you just have to do some math: 84,449 X 81,179 /100 = about 68,5
Which means that 68,5% of the nationwide vote have been counted so far.

Well, at least that's the information I read, i never really cared about elections in Peru till now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why does it take so much time to count the remaining 13% ?

[Tender Branson]

Why does it take so much time to count the remaining 13% ?

Because Peru is not France and people are sleeping right now ...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

2011 was a choice between a proxy to a jailed crook (Fujimori), a man with very questionable past in the Army (Humala), an utter failure (Toledo) and neoliberal ideologue (Kuczynski). From all those, Humala was the most acceptable for me.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

he cannot be a radical with that Congress. It's impossible. Gana Perú hasn't got a majority of seats.

ANd yes, Humala won. Those 3 exit polls all say the same. two of them give a 5 point lead for Ollanta and the other gives him a 5.2% margin ^^
So, the more democratic choice won!!

Chavez if I remember correctly didn't have a majority in his first congress either, and look how Venezuela turned out. Humala could implement a referendum that would give him sweeping powers like Chavez did.

Humala will take over a sharply divided country. Far from a popular support base Chavez enjoyed back in 1999.

[minionofmidas]

51.45% appears to be the final result. Somebody make a map, pretty please?

[Antonio the Sixth]

51.45% appears to be the final result. Somebody make a map, pretty please?

Thanks to Hashemite