Peruvian elections 2011

[RodPresident]

Nobody is seeing, but one of most interesting elections of year is in Peru. South American country has a crazy dispute, with 10 candidates, but 5 fighting for 2 places in run-off. Incumbent party, APRA (formally centre-left, but with a right-of-center government), is only in legislative election, like Peru Possible in 2006. Dispute began with former mayor of Lima, Luis Castañeda (Solidaridad Nacional, right-wing) and daddy's girl Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza 2011, populist right-wing) as front-runners, but former president Alejandro Toledo (Peru Possible, center) had a surge during late-2010. Now, Ollanta Humala (2006 pro-Chavez defeated candidate) and former Toledo's PM Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (with support of a broad centrist that includes Lourdes Flores' party) appeared in conditions to go to run-off). Nobel Prize and defeated candidate Mario Vargas Llosa said that if run-off be between Humala and Fujimori "it would be like choosing AIDS or terminal cancer".

[Bacon King]

The first round is on Sunday btw.

A little bit about the candidates-

Alejandro Toledo:
-former President (2001-2006)
-First VP is Carlos Bruce, who was in his cabinet last time.
-running largely on his past experience
-only candidate to make LGBT rights a campaign issue

Keiko Fujimori:
-daughter of former three-term President Alberto Fujimori, who's currently in prison for his ties to anti-guerrilla death squads but is still pretty popular in Peru
-was First Lady of Peru for six years, after her dad divorced her mom after she started criticizing his regime's corruption
-her campaign's major issues are poverty, equality, and crime
-refuses to state if she'll pardon her father

Luis Castañeda Lossio:
-Former Mayor of Lima (2003-2010)
-campaign planks: equality, economy, reform
-considered to be a pretty popular figure in the country

Ollanta Humala:
-former Colonel; led a small revolt against Fujimori but was later pardoned
-got 47.5% in the second round of the 2006 Presidential election
-anti neoliberal platform
-considered by opponents to be a Chavez puppet

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
-former Prime Minister, also former Energy and Finance minister
-campaigning on sound economic management and eliminating poverty

[Bacon King]

There have been seven polls so far this month, each by a different pollster. Here's each candidate's spread among the polls:

Fujimori: 16.4%-20.5%
Humala: 21.4%-28.7%
Toledo: 16.7%-22.0%
Castaneda: 10.1%-14.0%
Kuczynski: 15.6%-18.5%

One pollster (Datum) has a Humala-Kuczynski runoff, two pollsters (Ipsos and Datum) have a Humala-Fujimori runoff, and four pollsters (IOP, IMA, Imasen, CPI) have a Humala-Toledo runoff. I have no idea how good any of these pollsters are.

[Хahar 🤔]

A runoff between Humala and Fujimori would certainly be deliciously interesting.

[Bacon King]

Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

[Leftbehind]

If the polls are correct, it looks like Humala will be entering the run-off - which is great news.

[Хahar 🤔]

Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

Wikipedia has a list of polls in 2006, and they were pretty accurate, so I would suppose so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Toledo is competitive? Didn't he have approval ratings in the teens upon leaving office?

[Hash]

If the polls are correct, it looks like Humala will be entering the run-off - which is great news.

Yeah, an ethno nationalist nutcase is great news anywhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Toledo is competitive? Didn't he have approval ratings in the teens upon leaving office?

Significantly lower than that; he was less popular than smallpox. But the tendency in Peru is to forget such things within about three minutes of leaving office. Garcia (or some other APRA candidate) will probably be competitive again in 2016. Hilarious in a way.

[minionofmidas]

Toledo is competitive? Didn't he have approval ratings in the teens upon leaving office?

Significantly lower than that; he was less popular than smallpox. But the tendency in Peru is to forget such things within about three minutes of leaving office. Garcia (or some other APRA candidate) will probably be competitive again in 2016. Hilarious in a way.

That's because everybody else is just as bad.

Peru is getting ripeish for its own Morales. Not much hope for it in any other direction. Alas, Humala is a moron.

[ag]

Peru is getting ripeish for its own Morales. Not much hope for it in any other direction. Alas, Humala is a moron.

Actually, Peru's been blessed w/ fairly reasonable government for quite some time. The economy's been hot (w/ 2009 - the only, natural, exception - but even then it didn't get into the negative GDP growth), inflation low, poverty and inequality diminishing, etc., etc. Both Toledo and, surprizingly, Garcia (in his second incarnation) have been quite decent presidents by any objective measure - except personal popularity, of course. All this would be gravely endangered by a Morales or an Humala.

Don't forget that Peru is not Bolivia - it's not a majority Amerindian country, for one. And it is quite a bit richer. It is also a lot more governable. And, even by Peruvian standards, its recent governments have been doing quite well.

[minionofmidas]

That's why it's not quite there yet.

(The Luminous Path era might be another factor, actually...)

[Bacon King]

The election's tomorrow. Polls aren't allowed to be published in the last week before the election in Peru, but that hasn't stopped three private polls from being leaked in areas outside of Peruvian jurisdiction.

All three show a Humala-Fujimori runoff, and show Kuczynski within striking distance to overtake Fujimori. Also, Castañeda's apparently been hemorrhaging support so badly that they didn't even bother putting up his numbers up in any of the three polls.

CPI poll from April 7th: Humala 29%, Fujimori 21.5%, Kuczynski 19.3%, Toledo 15%. (margin of error "around two percent")
Ipsos-Apoyo poll from April 7th: Humala 28%, Fujimori 21.4%, Kuczynski 18.4%, Toledo 18.2%. (margin of error "around two percent")
Datum poll from April 8th: Humala 31.9%, Fujimori 22.3%, Kuczynski 17.3%, Toledo 15.3%. (margin of error 1.4%)

[DL]

Who would Humala have the best chance of beating in a run-off and who would be toughest for him to beat?

[Tender Branson]

Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

Maybe polls are conducted face-to-face in Peru, not over the phone.

[Хahar 🤔]

Who would Humala have the best chance of beating in a run-off and who would be toughest for him to beat?

Fujimori and Castañeda, respectively, but given that Castañeda's dead in the water Kuczynski would come next. Castañeda and Kuczynski are relatively inoffensive standard-issue right-wing Latin American politicians. Toledo was as popular as Chile when he finished his term in office, and the same people who hate Humala might be expected to despise Fujimori.

[Hash]

The latest public Peruvian-published poll had a 42-42 tie in a Keiko/Fujimori runoff. Humala would lose to Castañeda (who would defeat all), Toledo but defeat  Kuczynski (who loses to all).

[RodPresident]

EXIT POLLS:
IPSOS/Apoyo
Humala: 31.6%
Keiko Fujimori: 21.4%
PPK: 19.2%
Toledo: 16.1%
Castañeda: 10.2%
Others: 1.5%
CPI
Humala: 33%
Keiko Fujimori: 22%
PPK: 19%
Toledo: 15.3%
Castañeda: 9.5%
Others: 1.2%
DATUM
Humala: 33.8%
Fujimori: 21.3%
PPK: 19.5%
Toledo: 15.2%
Castañeda: 9.7%

[CultureKing]

EXIT POLLS:
IPSOS/Apoyo
Humala: 31.6%
Keiko Fujimori: 21.4%
PPK: 19.2%
Toledo: 16.1%
Castañeda: 10.2%
Others: 1.5%
CPI
Humala: 33%
Keiko Fujimori: 22%
PPK: 19%
Toledo: 15.3%
Castañeda: 9.5%
Others: 1.2%
DATUM
Humala: 33.8%
Fujimori: 21.3%
PPK: 19.5%
Toledo: 15.2%
Castañeda: 9.7%

That would be a horrible first-round result.

[Bacon King]

Looks like a consensus among all three exit polls with all three of the last-couple-of-days polls, I fear.

edit- results will be online in twenty one minutes (9:00 pm Eastern time). They've been counting for four hours so the results they post should basically be complete.

[ag]

¡Pobrecito Peru!

[Bacon King]

unofficial count from a supervising NGO, Transparencia-

Humala: 31.3%
Fujimori: 23.2%

looks like it'll definitely be an "AIDS vs. terminal cancer" runoff!

[Bacon King]

WHAAAAT.

43% of results counted-

Humala 27.0%
Kuczynski 23.6%
Fujimori 21.8%
Toledo 15.4%
Castaneda 11.5%

http://www.elecciones2011.onpe.gob.pe/resultados2011/1ravuelta/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose it depends where's in so far, but you should hardly be surprised if exit polls in a country like Peru are made of Clegg.