MS-PPP: All Republicans ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 54%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Haley Barbour, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 41%
Haley Barbour ................................................ 51%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 48%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 48%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0329915.pdf

The new map:

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I'm a bit shocked that in Mississippi of all places, Palin leads by only 4 points. Is she really that unpopular, even down South?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huckabee performing better than Barbour? Has Haley done anything that caused resentment among Evangelicals?

[tpfkaw]

I'm a bit shocked that in Mississippi of all places, Palin leads by only 4 points. Is she really that unpopular, even down South?

Mississippians who answer polls are probably more affluent (and thus Democratic liberal, in the Deep South) than the general population, MS is a highly racially-polarized state (they went for McCain by only the same margin that NV went for Obama) - and whites are more likely to say they're "undecided" without actually being undecided than blacks.  Also PPP has been releasing a lot of results recently that look pretty fishy.  I wish some other pollster would start polling states.

Huckabee performing better than Barbour? Has Haley done anything that caused resentment among Evangelicals?

I'd say that's more a measure of Huck's popularity than Barbour's unpopularity.

[DrScholl]

Here we go attacking PPP when the results don't serve a certain agenda. Palin is just not well liked and would underperform in many places. Second, Obama's numbers are not at all that far from what the Democrats base numbers are in Mississippi. There is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary here.

[Alcon]

Mississippians who answer polls are probably more affluent (and thus Democratic, in the Deep South) than the general population

You must be kidding...

[tpfkaw]

Mississippians who answer polls are probably more affluent (and thus Democratic, in the Deep South) than the general population

You must be kidding...

"liberal"

Happy now?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Obama got 43% in Mississippi in 2008. Why would it be such a shock that he gets 40-42% this time?

[Phony Moderate]

Mississippians who answer polls are probably more affluent (and thus Democratic, in the Deep South) than the general population

You must be kidding...

"liberal"

Happy now?

No.

[Alcon]

Mississippians who answer polls are probably more affluent (and thus Democratic, in the Deep South) than the general population

You must be kidding...

"liberal"

Happy now?

I'll be happy once you look at the exit polls.  This, too, is almost certainly untrue outside of maybe the Research Triangle and Fairfax County.

[memphis]

Don't think people in MS are jumping for joy at the prospect of a loudmouth woman as president. So not their style. She'd still beat Obama there though.

[Bull Moose Base]

Huckabee and Barbour met in MS yesterday.  Barbour is pursuing Huckabee's endorsement.  Huckabee fighting the consensus that he's not running.

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi projects to be closer in 2012 in the Presidential race than in 2008. Racial polarization in approval remains extreme in Mississippi. President Obama stands to lose lose this state by a middle-to high single-digit margin against anyone but Huckabee.   Mike Huckabee would probably win Mississippi by about a 12% margin. If anything can erodes such polarization, then President Obama picks up Mississippi.

Mike Huckabee is the perfect fit for Mississippi, even more than Haley Barbour, probably because he better fits the cultural profile of white Mississippians (54-40) even with no favorite-son effect.  

For a favorite-son, Haley Barbour does surprisingly poorly in Mississippi. A 51-41 split isn't the 57-something split that John Thune shows in South Dakota. Figure that the favorite-son advantage is worth about 10% on average, that Mississippi is about R+10 in nationwide or statewide votes, and Haley Barbour would do at most 42% of the nationwide vote against President Obama. A 57-42 nationwide (which is very charitable)  split in favor of President Obama flips a bunch of McCain States (MO, MT, GA, AZ, ND, SC, SD, maybe TX, KY, and TN) to set up something like an Eisenhower-scale win for the Presidency.  

I doubt that Barbour would be a VP candidate to help some Northern Republican (let us say Thune or Pawlenty) shore up the South. If the Republican nominee thinks that he needs to shore up states like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, then President Obama is on the brink of a landslide irrespective of who the VP nominee is.          

[Tender Branson]

Looks about right for Mississippi.

I`m more interested in the Governor results, but I think Phil Bryant will start out with a 20-point lead.

[Tender Branson]

Q12 Do you want Haley Barbour to run for President next year?

Yes.................................................................. 33%
No................................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain................................................... 54%
Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Someone Else/Don't Remember..................... 7%

...

This might be a reason why Barbour does worse than Huckabee. They want him to serve as Governor of their state until the term ends (or even longer).

[pbrower2a]

I'm a bit shocked that in Mississippi of all places, Palin leads by only 4 points. Is she really that unpopular, even down South?

I wouldn't give President Obama much of a chance against any Republican in Mississippi except against Sarah Palin. For obvious reasons (the state's politics are almost tribal), President Obama is a horrible match for Mississippi.  The only sort of Democrat who can Mississippi since the 1960 is a "good ol' boy" of the sort that Jimmy Carter was (once) in 1976. Barack Obama couldn't restyle himself fast enough to win Mississippi even if he were white.

Sarah Palin loses this state, though, if the 2012 boils down to foreign policy and military affairs and she is the Republican nominee. Military issues and foreign policy matter significantly in the South, probably the only part of the country in which white people join the all-volunteer Armed Forces in above-average numbers for the US as a whole.  I think that Sarah Palin needs only expose her ignorance on foreign policy and military issues should those go well for President Obama but seem to depend upon him and upon those around him for the possibility of safety. That just hasn't happened yet, and I can't yet predict it happening.    

[Reaganfan]

The key for the GOP is to nail down red states by the Summer and focus all energy on swing states. Remember for a few weeks between late August and mid-September of 2008 when McCain soared ahead in North Carolina by double digits? He was leading or tied in New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, ect. Had he been able to keep that (no meltdown) then he could have won or made the electoral vote very close.

We need to make sure whoever is on the ticket can nail down safe red states like Texas, Mississippi...hold on to red states (Missouri is still trending GOP, Indiana, North Carolina, pull Iowa back, ect) and then focus on Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada.

[President Mitt]

no wayyyy

[Tender Branson]

The key for the GOP is to nail down red states by the Summer and focus all energy on swing states.

This summer or next summer ?

Doesn't matter though. Fact is that Republicans will be bruised until the middle of next year because of the ongoing primary season and numbers will likely not change much until the conventions.

Remember for a few weeks between late August and mid-September of 2008 when McCain soared ahead in North Carolina by double digits? He was leading or tied in New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, ect. Had he been able to keep that (no meltdown) then he could have won or made the electoral vote very close.

Yes, that was the convention bounce phase. After that, in early October normally Democrats wake up and get more engaged and then at the end of October, normally Republicans wake up a bit and close the margin ...

We need to make sure whoever is on the ticket can nail down safe red states like Texas, Mississippi...hold on to red states (Missouri is still trending GOP, Indiana, North Carolina, pull Iowa back, ect) and then focus on Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada.

Of course, but Obama as the incumbent will already have campaign headquarters buzzing in each state by this time next year and his supporters hopefully mobilized, while the Republicans are still battling each other, with no GE infrastructure in place in the states.

[Reaganfan]

The key for the GOP is to nail down red states by the Summer and focus all energy on swing states.

This summer or next summer ?

Doesn't matter though. Fact is that Republicans will be bruised until the middle of next year because of the ongoing primary season and numbers will likely not change much until the conventions.

Remember for a few weeks between late August and mid-September of 2008 when McCain soared ahead in North Carolina by double digits? He was leading or tied in New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, ect. Had he been able to keep that (no meltdown) then he could have won or made the electoral vote very close.

Yes, that was the convention bounce phase. After that, in early October normally Democrats wake up and get more engaged and then at the end of October, normally Republicans wake up a bit and close the margin ...

We need to make sure whoever is on the ticket can nail down safe red states like Texas, Mississippi...hold on to red states (Missouri is still trending GOP, Indiana, North Carolina, pull Iowa back, ect) and then focus on Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada.

Of course, but Obama as the incumbent will already have campaign headquarters buzzing in each state by this time next year and his supporters hopefully mobilized, while the Republicans are still battling each other, with no GE infrastructure in place in the states.

Primaries mean nothing. Nothing could have been a more brutal primary season than the Democratic Primaries in 2008 and Barack Obama won the election by 7 pts.

[Bull Moose Base]

Q12 Do you want Haley Barbour to run for President next year?

Yes.................................................................. 33%
No................................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

This might be a reason why Barbour does worse than Huckabee. They want him to serve as Governor of their state until the term ends (or even longer).

He only has 9 more months in office.  That isn't unusual though.  Daniels is popular in Indiana but Hoosiers polled that they don't want him to run for prez.

[Tender Branson]

I`m more interested in the Governor results, but I think Phil Bryant will start out with a 20-point lead.

Says PPP:

"We'll have our first and quite possibly last Mississippi Governor numbers out tomorrow. Yawwwnnn"

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/52851696027705344

[Badger]

Q12 Do you want Haley Barbour to run for President next year?

Yes.................................................................. 33%
No................................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

This might be a reason why Barbour does worse than Huckabee. They want him to serve as Governor of their state until the term ends (or even longer).

He only has 9 more months in office.  That isn't unusual though.  Daniels is popular in Indiana but Hoosiers polled that they don't want him to run for prez.

PPP reports most of the opposition to his candidacy comes from Dems, though includes about half of indies and a third of Republicans too.

Still surprisingly poor numbers for a reasonably popular (52-39 approve/disapprove in the poll) home state governor. Maybe a good number of people supporting his work as governor just don't see him as presidential timber.

[Brittain33]

Nothing could have been a more brutal primary season than the Democratic Primaries in 2008 and Barack Obama won the election by 7 pts.

It was fiercely contested and some of the surrogates got nasty (hello, Ferraro), but if you want brutal, you have to go into personal slime and attacks on integrity that lead to the two candidates barely able to stand each other. Like a California gubernatorial primary. Clearly that didn't happen with Clinton and Obama.

[California8429]

Favorable Ratings at very interesting

1. Mike Huckabee 51%/29% for +22%.

2. Newt Gingrich 42%/38% for +4%.

3. Mitt Romney 34%/41% for -7%.

4. Sarah Palin 42%/50% for -8%.

First time I've seen Gingrich and Palin widely seperated and the first time I've seen Gingrich as number 2 which a positive approval overall in the state while other candidates have net negatives.