Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

The massage parlor attack started pretty late yesterday, I don't think it's reflected in the polling. Nanos is a three day tracker, and I believe Tuesday was a really good day for the NDP on Nanos. With that out of equation, NDP slightly loses a bit of points. What's more important is that if they can close the deal during the weekend and translate the numbers into seats.

I meant Thursday's attacks are working.

[Holmes]

Cons: 37%
NDP: 33%
Libs: 22%

They actually have the Liberals at 19%. http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011.04.30_FedPoli_CAN.pdf

Looking good everywhere, being 3 points behind the Conservatives in BC must have them scared a bit. Ontario not really budging... NDP have been making gains there, but it seems at the expense of the Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some more riding polls:

Pontiac: It can now be confirmed that the NDP is in the lead there, 39-33. Interestingly, Cannon hasn't lost any support.

Churchill River: Tories are in the lead here, 57-35 over the NDP. So much for my thoughts...

Juan de Fuca: Tories are ahead here 40-35 over the NDP in this open seat.

Nunavut: Tories lead the Liberals 71-20.

Oraclepoll Research for Project Democracy. Hmm... these look as dodgy as hell. I suspect if any are right (as in the picture, not the results) it'll be by as much chance as anything else.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah yes, let's bring out all the radical positions Layton had back in the 1990s...

Yes, the very same year as the massage parlor incident.

I'm going to be lenient because you probably aren't familiar with the culture of this board, but you act like this again here in future then your posts will be deleted and heavily infracted. Snarky- snarky-hack-trolly-bait-gotcha posts go completely against the point of this board and its accepted - unwritten - rules.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Today's Nanos.

Conservative - 38.0 (+1.6)     
NDP - 29.6 (-1.6)    
Liberal - 23.3 (+1.3)    
BQ - 5.2 (-0.5)    
Green - 3.1 (-0.9)

*shrug* Little change in Ontario, BC, or Quebec (NDP -2%). Tories gain more in the Prairies, and a lot more in the Atlantic, where apparently the NDP is in third. Big MoE's, of course.

Atlantic always = MoE issues, and as for the Prairies, well, a very good Tory sample seems to have come on yesterday, so that's no surprise either. Nothing much to see really.

[minionofmidas]

Some more riding polls:

Pontiac: It can now be confirmed that the NDP is in the lead there, 39-33. Interestingly, Cannon hasn't lost any support.

Churchill River: Tories are in the lead here, 57-35 over the NDP. So much for my thoughts...

Juan de Fuca: Tories are ahead here 40-35 over the NDP in this open seat.

Nunavut: Tories lead the Liberals 71-20.

Oraclepoll Research for Project Democracy. Hmm... these look as dodgy as hell. I suspect if any are right (as in the picture, not the results) it'll be by as much chance as anything else.

Leona is a popstar in Nunavut. She'll win hugely.
Churchill River though? Unpollable without local expertise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I agree with that as well.

I meant Thursday's attacks are working.

They might be, but there's nothing in that poll that would confirm that theory. Ah, but that kind of pessimism is entirely understandable to me, because I tend to share it wrt elections (and other things).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I've been to a "massage parlor" before. Who. F**king. Cares.

Sounds like someone didn't have a "happy ending" to his visit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leger's last poll... Con 36, NDP 31, Lib 21, BQ 7, Greenies 4

Regional breakdowns, presented to you (the fine publick of the Atlas International Elections Board by the Qt. Hon. Boardbashi of the Worshipful Company of Scribblers, Researchers, Moderators & Illuminati) with dread and grave caveats, are as follows:

Atlantic: Con 34, NDP 33, Lib 28, Greenies 4
Quebec: NDP 40, BQ 27, Lib 15, Con 15, Greenies 2
Ontario: Con 38, NDP 30, Lib 27, Greenies 7
Saskatchewan & Manitoba: Con 49, NDP 30, Lib 16, Greenies 4
Alberta: Con 63, NDP 18, Lib 13, Greenies 5
British Columbia: Con 42, NDP 32, Lib 16, Greenies 9

Note that Leger polls have more people included than most; even the Atlantic sample had 256 decided voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've been to a "massage parlor" before. Who. F**king. Cares.

Sounds like someone didn't have a "happy ending" to his visit.

Correct. From the description of the incident it sounds like Layton didn't.

Me on the other hand...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More as a note of mild interest than owt significant, but Election Prediction Project has finally bowed to the polls (somewhat) and festooned its Quebec page with lightening bolts.

[cinyc]

"Bawdy house"? Canada is so quaint.

I don't really get whose mind this would change at this point. Presumably conservative pearl-clutchers would be voting Tory (or Christian Heritage or whatever), and Liberal defectors are probably not going to be swayed by something this minor if they're pissed off enough at the Liberals to switch to the NDP. This seems somewhat reminiscent of the hail-mary "Aqua Buddha" or "There is no God!" last-minute ads that didn't help Conway or Dole any, and probably hurt them.

This type of attack is almost always geared toward making undecided or weak-supporting female voters not vote for the candidate involved in the sex scandal.  It very well could backfire, but it's not exactly the same thing as Aqua Budha or "There is no God!"  because it involves sex and prostitution, not religion.  Sex sells.

[2952-0-0]

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

[Verily]

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

More as a note of mild interest than owt significant, but Election Prediction Project has finally bowed to the polls (somewhat) and festooned its Quebec page with lightening bolts.

Happened the day after I took a pot shot at them from my website.

[Хahar 🤔]

O Boardbashi:

Atlantic: Con 34, NDP 33, Lib 28, Greenies

Presumably there should be a number here, yes?

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

This was done in British Columbia in the late 1940s. It didn't work very well.

[Foucaulf]

"Shut down the CBC", claims Tory

In all seriousness, another look at the problems of Canadian media. Harper recognizes that the reporters want him far more than he wants them, and media questioning becomes a crapshoot.

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

Surely he knows enough to make it confidence & supply rather than a coalition, or he can yank right-wing Liberals once the collapse comes. Having to appease ex-Liberals probably gives Harper an excuse for not cutting the deficit or making controversial social policy.

A disclaimer: Harper has not said anything about what happens if he retains his minority, because he still doesn't know for sure. Nobody has talked about the breaking point for prairie conservatives, either. After voting for the Tories but receiving nothing, when will they jump ship?

[2952-0-0]

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

Let's look at the options the Liberals have, once they're trounced into third place and they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament:

1) Liberals forced to humiliatingly prop up Conservative confidence motions while their leadership candidates make anti-Harper rhetoric

2) Harper decides to kill the Liberals once and for all by offering goodies to a certain number of centrist Liberal MPs even when (what's left of) the Liberal leadership opposes them

3) NDP-led, Liberal supported coalition takes power, and within months the Liberals act like a jilted wife in a forced marriage; the Liberals get destroyed from the left if the NDP governs well or from the right if the NDP governs like Bob Rae

Realistically the only way the Liberals are going to survive in the long term is if they can afford to posture and make principled stands while cleaning out all Chretien/Martin flunkies, which depends on the Conservative Party winning a majority, which itself seems shaky.

[You kip if you want to...]

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

Let's look at the options the Liberals have, once they're trounced into third place and they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament:

1) Liberals forced to humiliatingly prop up Conservative confidence motions while their leadership candidates make anti-Harper rhetoric

2) Harper decides to kill the Liberals once and for all by offering goodies to a certain number of centrist Liberal MPs even when (what's left of) the Liberal leadership opposes them

3) NDP-led, Liberal supported coalition takes power, and within months the Liberals act like a jilted wife in a forced marriage; the Liberals get destroyed from the left if the NDP governs well or from the right if the NDP governs like Bob Rae

Realistically the only way the Liberals are going to survive in the long term is if they can afford to posture and make principled stands while cleaning out all Chretien/Martin flunkies, which depends on the Conservative Party winning a majority, which itself seems shaky.

Basically, whoever the next Liberal leader is, they shouldn't become a Canadian Nick Clegg.

[Holmes]

It would take Justin Trudeau, or someone equally charismatic. Bob Rae is just another self-inflicted wound waiting to happen. Even my mother (who's voting Conservative) would jump to the Liberals under Justin Trudeau. But he's young.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

O Boardbashi:

Atlantic: Con 34, NDP 33, Lib 28, Greenies

Presumably there should be a number here, yes?

Quite so. It shall be adjusted.

[Hatman 🍁]

Inspiration: http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/provincial_territorial_politics/clips/5192/

[Lief 🗽]

I wonder if the provincial NDP in Ontario has seen any uptick in support along with the national party.

[Holmes]

Mmm, I dunno... NDP gains in Ontario have seem to be at the expense of Liberals. I'm expecting some form of PC government after the next election in Ontario. NDP will gain seats in northern Ontario... but the PC will probably kill in southern Ontario outside of Toronto.

[2952-0-0]

Inspiration: http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/provincial_territorial_politics/clips/5192/

Ugh. You don't want any reminder of that.