Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Environics has the NDP at 41% in Quebec, but it has shown strong numbers for the NDP in the past. They have us at 25% nation wide, ahead of the liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Brome-Missisquoi, the former NDP candidate (2008) is leading for the Bloc 32-26% over the NDP and the Liberals who are tied for second. The NDP has no business doing that well in what was a close race between the Liberals and Bloc in 2008...

There's a certain logic in the Dippers doing well in the Eastern Townships though, isn't there? In the 'were they not in Quebec...' sense, which may not be reliable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full Environics figures... Con 39, NDP 25, Lib 22, BQ 7, Greenies 6

Ontario: Con 43, Lib 29, NDP 18, Greenies 8
Quebec: NDP 41, BQ 28, Lib 15, Con 12

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If that's anything like correct (and holds), then the Tories would almost certainly win a majority and the NDP would almost certainly become the official opposition. And there would be very few Liberals left standing beyond the GTA.

[Meeker]

Innovative Research sez: C36 L24 N23 nationally. QC: N36 B27 C18 L14. ON: C41 L36 N17. BC: C42 N29 L20. AT: C36 L34 N23.

[homelycooking]

AT: C36 L34 N23.

Wait. This is Alberta we're talking about, right? Liberals within 2% in Alberta?

[Hash]

Atlantic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Atlantic.

Apparently there's a slight difference.

[homelycooking]

Atlantic.

Apparently there's a slight difference.

No kidding. On that note, has there been any polling in Alberta?

[Foucaulf]

In these turbulent election times, humour is all the more important.

(One picture has already been sigged, so the site would have been linked sooner or later.)

EDIT: Spoke too soon, here's a politico's last wishes.


I'm predicting two trends during the last week of the campaign:

• Layton makes big pitches in the Maritimes, Quebec and BC, offering little support in Ontario except for incumbents.
• Harper and Ignatieff clashes over Southern Ontario. The Liberals try to persuade voters not to vote NDP in order for the Liberals to keep a dozen clutch ridings. Harper will keep hammering Ignatieff to split the vote and pave the way to a majority.

Barring a majority outright, it would be interesting to see if enough Liberals balk at an alliance with the NDP to support Harper at the next session.

[Verily]

Atlantic.

Apparently there's a slight difference.

No kidding. On that note, has there been any polling in Alberta?

Pollsters usually give a breakdown for "The Prairies", which is Alberta, Sask and Manitoba. They show the Conservatives flat, the NDP up and the Liberals down on 2008, none of the changes all that large, but who knows how accurate that is.

Basically suggests Winnipeg North may flip back to the NDP, NDP will be the main challengers to the Conservatives in Desnethe (but hard to say whether they have any serious shot), Liberals might lose Wascana, NDP will probably hold Edmonton Strathcona, and the NDP may stand a chance at Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Not many interesting races out there.

[cinyc]

Pollsters usually give a breakdown for "The Prairies", which is Alberta, Sask and Manitoba. They show the Conservatives flat, the NDP up and the Liberals down on 2008, none of the changes all that large, but who knows how accurate that is.

Basically suggests Winnipeg North may flip back to the NDP, NDP will be the main challengers to the Conservatives in Desnethe (but hard to say whether they have any serious shot), Liberals might lose Wascana, NDP will probably hold Edmonton Strathcona, and the NDP may stand a chance at Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Not many interesting races out there.

Some pollsters do break out Alberta from the rest of the Prairies, but when they do so, the MoE for both areas is so high as to be completely unreliable - like on Atlantic Canada levels.  And that's before worrying about not weighing regional subsamples properly.

[Insula Dei]

Wascana going for the Liberals would be a pretty symbolic moment, no? I mean, they'd have no seats left in either SK or AB and probably only a very small amount in MB (too lazy to check where losing Winnipeg N would leave them). I know the prairies never were an historical stronghold for the Liberals, but was there a period where they stood stronger (presumably mostly in MB)?

And what should we expect from PEI? Status quo?

[Verily]

Wascana going for the Liberals would be a pretty symbolic moment, no? I mean, they'd have no seats left in either SK or AB and probably only a very small amount in MB (too lazy to check where losing Winnipeg N would leave them). I know the prairies never were an historical stronghold for the Liberals, but was there a period where they stood stronger (presumably mostly in MB)?

And what should we expect from PEI? Status quo?

Libs have only one seat left in Manitoba other than their borrowed-time seat in Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South Centre. Which I didn't realize was as marginal as it actually is; only a six-point split between the Cons and Libs. The Prairies could be a Liberal-free zone come May.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If you want to see these in the next few days, you'll need to follow my website.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pollsters usually give a breakdown for "The Prairies", which is Alberta, Sask and Manitoba. They show the Conservatives flat, the NDP up and the Liberals down on 2008, none of the changes all that large, but who knows how accurate that is.

Some done over the past week or so have shown considerably more movement, but I think we'll have to wait and see on that. I wish a few proper polls of each province would be done; breakdowns are worth fyck all for the most part, especially for smaller provinces.

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The NDP have an excellent candidate (at least on paper) in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River and some decent ones elsewhere (Palliser for one; which is always a bit of an odd duck as it includes Moose Jaw). I can't imagine Goodale actually losing as he's such an institution, but so was Nystrom (in Yorkton-Melville, that is, not his last riding) so I guess it can't be ruled out. D-M-CR will depend on turnout in the aboriginal communities, as always.

Edit: in some ways I almost wonder whether there might be greater grounds for relative optimism wrt Saskatchewan than Manitoba as it's now the latter that 'represent' an unpopular provincial government. Yeah, yeah... the Sask NDP have hardly excelled themselves in opposition so maybe not so relevant a point. Still, it's something to consider, especially given past patterns in both places.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New EKOS poll... Con 33.7, NDP 28.0, Lib 23.7, Greenies 7.2, BQ 6.2

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Looks too good to be true, but I live in hope.

[Foucaulf]

You missed the best part - EKOS's seat projection based on that poll.

Conservative 131 + Arthur, Liberal 62, NDP 100, Bloc 14

You must be logged in to read this quote.

EKOS queries the Green Party in their polls, which always inflate their votes and steals others. It also has a reputation for outlier polls, and Graves gets hit with being a "Liberal" pollster every now and then. It's not as if they haven't shown huge leads for the Conservatives before, though

[Verily]

New EKOS poll... Con 33.7, NDP 28.0, Lib 23.7, Greenies 7.2, BQ 6.2

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Looks too good to be true, but I live in hope.

Quebec (and a fairly respectable sample size, around 700)

NDP: 39
Bloc: 25
Con: 15
Lib: 13

lolBloc

Their big difference w/ Nanos (other than scale of the NDP lead in Quebec) seems to be that EKOS is showing an NDP surge in Ontario while Nanos is not. (EKOS has the NDP at 23% in Ontario and gaining; Nanos has them at 17% and flat.) Not sure what to make of that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth a read: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/rubber-hits-the-road-for-parties-and-seat-projectors/

Not sure what to make of that.

There might be some deeper - and more interesting - reason, but I suspect it's the usual problems that come with regional breakdowns, even ones with decent sample sizes. We need some real polls of provinces (sorry to sound like a stuck record, but we do).

[Hatman 🍁]

What the truck.

[Meeker]

This is amusing: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-harper-dossier.html

[Foucaulf]

Worth a read: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/rubber-hits-the-road-for-parties-and-seat-projectors/

Not sure what to make of that.

There might be some deeper - and more interesting - reason, but I suspect it's the usual problems that come with regional breakdowns, even ones with decent sample sizes. We need some real polls of provinces (sorry to sound like a stuck record, but we do).

If we aggregate the two Ontario polls for a 20% support for the NDP, both Nanos and EKOS breakdowns are within a typical 3% MoE. To draw conclusions from this ambiguity, we have to take one of two perspectives.

A. Enough Ontario voters dislike Bob Rae's NDP government enough to keep federal party levels low.
B. Enough new Ontario voters (students, immigrants) like Jack Layton enough to give his party momentum.

Depending on one's perspective, that's a few seats lost or gained by the NDP, which is particularly problematic given that's all Harper may need for a majority. Until the NDP legitimately upseats the Liberals as the second-ranked party, though, the party will eat up Liberal votes, which also puts Liberal seats at risk. Such could be the case if the NDP stagnates or improves.
No matter what result, the Conservatives still have an edge. This is why I think the Liberals have to focus entirely on Ontario after Ignatieff's trip to Vancouver.


Going back to that article, though...
I think the criticism towards projectors is unwarranted. They can choose to look backwards and be oblivious to rapid swings, or they can choose to rest in the present and be at the mercy of an underdeveloped polling market.

The American projection process is better not simply because it has more polls and Nate Silver. The American election process is more focused and continuous. Every party position switch, every primary and every gerrymander falls into a scheme cooperated by the Beltway. There are more debates in American politics, more ways for the voter to keep track of the process, and be more in-tune with the scheme.

The Canadian election process is less so. There are two debates, and after that the leaders do their own things. The different parties can basically create their own narrative without having to face the other ones in a TV studio. The Canadian voter can have his views altered during the one convergence and subscribe to his new party's narrative thereon. This is why we can have people claiming a Conservative blowout, a NDP-led coalition or the youth vote rescuing the Green Party this time. Three different narratives.

Without any change from the broadcasters or the politicians, the projectors and the pollsters have to create an American projection without the American process, but they have implicitly created the process. It is the politicians' fault for reacting so wildly to such a shift, not the projectors'. Though some would say that we should not give such gravitas to the projectors, I say they're the only ones we have, certainly better alternatives to partisan spin doctors.

[Holmes]

This is amusing: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-harper-dossier.html

Someone is gonna get fired?

[2952-0-0]

This is amusing: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-harper-dossier.html

Someone is gonna get fired?

But wouldn't firing whoever leaked this file attract attention the CPC doesn't need or want?

[Marokai Backbeat]

The new Liberal attack on Layton is hilarious. Is anyone going to seriously believe Layton and Harper are the same?