NC-PPP: Obama ties Huckabee, leads everybody else

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 45%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 42%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_03231118.pdf

The new map:

(There are conflicting Obama-Romney polls in MI and NH)

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[The Doctor]

North Carolina is here to stay as a swing state. That isn't good news for the Republicans as North Carolina is an electorally rich state that went from "Safe R" to swing state in just one election.

[Badger]

North Carolina is here to stay as a swing state. That isn't good news for the Republicans as North Carolina is an electorally rich state that went from "Safe R" to swing state in just one election.

NC had been fools gold for Democrats since the late 80's. Its been assumed the combination of a growing urban population around Charlotte and (especially) the Research Triangle combined with a sizable African-American population would make this a model of "The New South" where even national candidates could be competitive. It took until 2008 for that (barely) to be proven doable.

[freepcrusher]

true, but Kerry won the under 30 vote in 2004 and Obama won the youth vote with 74 percent in 2008. Once all the Jesse Helms worshippers start dying off, it could be ours. Remember too, that North Carolina also has a democratic history. From 1876 to 1964 it voted for a democrat in every presidential election.

[You kip if you want to...]

From 1876 to 1964 it voted for a democrat in every presidential election.

Doesn't mean much...

[King]

North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are definitely trending Democratic at a snails pace.  But it's offset by the rest of the South's rapid trend rightward.

[Smash255]

North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are definitely trending Democratic at a snails pace.  But it's offset by the rest of the South's rapid trend rightward.

I would agree with Georgia.  Florida on the other hand doesn't seem to be moving much at all, and NC (despite the Dem losses last year) does seem to be moving Dem at a decent pace.

[Gustaf]

North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are definitely trending Democratic at a snails pace.  But it's offset by the rest of the South's rapid trend rightward.

I would agree with Georgia.  Florida on the other hand doesn't seem to be moving much at all, and NC (despite the Dem losses last year) does seem to be moving Dem at a decent pace.

If anything Florida has seemed to be moving right. At least, that has been my impression. North Carolina seems to have made something of a jump to Obama.

Although I think Democrats might do well to remember that Obama is a bit unusual in that he fires up both black voters and college kid-type voters at the same time. That might be hard to repeat in the future and I suspect that might be important in a state like NC.

[Brittain33]

Obama won North Carolina by expanding the universe of voters beyond past numbers. Yes, the influx of moderate and liberal northerners and the growth of liberal areas helped, but the state was so much more Republican than the nation before 2008 that this kind of incremental change couldn't alone account for the jump in D performance. Obama needs to bring in these infrequent voters (and it's not entirely an ethnic issue--it's also young people) in 2012, which he may do, but it's hard to see other Dems enjoying his success or winning over conservatives.

[Badger]

North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are definitely trending Democratic at a snails pace.  But it's offset by the rest of the South's rapid trend rightward.

I would agree with Georgia.  Florida on the other hand doesn't seem to be moving much at all, and NC (despite the Dem losses last year) does seem to be moving Dem at a decent pace.

If anything Florida has seemed to be moving right. At least, that has been my impression. North Carolina seems to have made something of a jump to Obama.

Although I think Democrats might do well to remember that Obama is a bit unusual in that he fires up both black voters and college kid-type voters at the same time. That might be hard to repeat in the future and I suspect that might be important in a state like NC.

Demographics seems to help Dems in Florida, though. IIRC from an NPR blurb the other day on Florida's continuing population boom, much of it comes from increased black and hispanic immigration to the state. And most of these newer hispanics are not from Cuba, but rather are from more Democratic friendly ethnic groups like Salvadorans and Mexicans.

[freepcrusher]

look at a place like Orange County, Florida. From the end of World War II to the turn of the century, it was a hardcore GOP district. It went from 28.51% Mondale in 1984 to 31.27% Dukakis in 1988 to 34.89% Clinton in 1992 to 45.66% Clinton in 1996 to 50.06% Gore in 2000. Kerry did slightly worse at 49.83% in 2004 but Obama won 59% of the vote in 2008, which was the highest a democrat has gotten there since Roosevelt's 61% in 1940. The fact that it is a fast growing county helps the democrats even more.

[Badger]

look at a place like Orange County, Florida. From the end of World War II to the turn of the century, it was a hardcore GOP district. It went from 28.51% Mondale in 1984 to 31.27% Dukakis in 1988 to 34.89% Clinton in 1992 to 45.66% Clinton in 1996 to 50.06% Gore in 2000. Kerry did slightly worse at 49.83% in 2004 but Obama won 59% of the vote in 2008, which was the highest a democrat has gotten there since Roosevelt's 61% in 1940. The fact that it is a fast growing county helps the democrats even more.

The fastest growing county in a fast growing state, I believe.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

NC had been fools gold for Democrats since the late 80's. Its been assumed the combination of a growing urban population around Charlotte and (especially) the Research Triangle combined with a sizable African-American population would make this a model of "The New South" where even national candidates could be competitive. It took until 2008 for that (barely) to be proven doable.

I'm not sure about this. My faint recollection of the late '80s/early '90s is that NC was perceived as a moderate Southern state the Democrats could win with the right candidate - ala-ARK, TN, KY etc . And Clinton almost did win it in '92 at least. I don't think the "Emerging Dem Majority" notion of the state really entered the picture until maybe ten years ago, or sometime after John Edwards' '98 Senate win. Its pattern seems to have converged with VA's in recent years, but they're very different states historically - VA being much more typical of "The New South" electorally.

[JacobNC]

Don't forget - NC came very close to electing a black guy in 1990.  Granted, it was against Jesse Helms, but it's still pretty incredible when you think about a state like Alabama or South Carolina almost electing an African American to statewide office today - and that was twenty years ago in NC.