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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Should've left the Pangolins alone, Apocrypha)
  2008 - Bush vs. Democrat
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Author Topic: 2008 - Bush vs. Democrat  (Read 4798 times)
mondale84
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« on: March 16, 2011, 01:59:04 am »

If Bush had run for a third term (if it were possible under the Constitution) what would have been the results given his unpopularity? Would it have been a 40+ state sweep against him? Would he have lost a majority of US counties? Discuss with maps etc.
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NHI
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2011, 11:03:35 am »

Hillary vs. Bush



D: 412
R: 126
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21st Century Independent
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« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2011, 01:50:36 am »

Given that possibility, Bush would have chosen a different VP after 2006 Congressional Victory by Dems to get ready for 2008. Then given his tremendous descent from his mediocre standing, whomever he picked as VP would have run in 08. My thinking is it may have been someone like Tom Ridge with more broad appeal to be competitive.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2011, 10:16:21 pm »

Obama 411 vs Bush 127

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America™
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2011, 09:07:07 pm »

You did say Democrat....



Bush/Cheney v.s. Michael Moore/ Rosie O'Donnell
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2011, 03:54:44 pm »

You did say Democrat....



Bush/Cheney v.s. Michael Moore/ Rosie O'Donnell

...and for a year hence, no one who truly loved America would eat a salad or drink a wine cooler in public.
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Jay Roosevelt
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2011, 01:47:14 am »

You have to assume the democrat would have won every state Obama did and then some. Missouri probably, North Dakota maybe. It's hard for me to imagine Bush carrying many states in the fall of '08 - especially against a more moderate democrat. Maybe against Obama he'd have carried most of McCain's states, but I think even then you'd have to assume he loses at least 2-3 additional states.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2011, 06:07:28 pm »

Just for kicks!


George W. Bush (R-TX)/Dick Cheney (R-WY)--315 Electoral Votes
Howard Dean (D-VT)/Al Sharpton (D-NY)--223 Electoral Votes

It was the only scenario I could think of where Bush wins by a comfortable margin.  If you want a >500 electoral college victory for Bush...just flip the Democratic ticket. 
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Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2011, 06:32:37 pm »



Clinton/Obama- 381
Bush/Cheney- 157
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2011, 06:31:01 pm »

If Bush had run for a third term (if it were possible under the Constitution) what would have been the results given his unpopularity? Would it have been a 40+ state sweep against him? Would he have lost a majority of US counties? Discuss with maps etc.

Bush's home state, Cheney's home state, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and, best performance, Oklahoma. As for the rest of the less than 100 electoral votes … who gives a damn?!
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redcommander
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2011, 08:25:01 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2011, 08:29:53 pm by SayNotoJonHuntsman »



Bush/Cheney vs. Clinton/Manchin

Bush would have been lucky to have done as well as Carter in 1980.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2011, 08:27:10 pm »

Just for kicks!


George W. Bush (R-TX)/Dick Cheney (R-WY)--315 Electoral Votes
Howard Dean (D-VT)/Al Sharpton (D-NY)--223 Electoral Votes

It was the only scenario I could think of where Bush wins by a comfortable margin.  If you want a >500 electoral college victory for Bush...just flip the Democratic ticket. 

At first I asked why Howard Dean would lose to Bush; he would likely win with Bush being so unpopular. Then I saw Al Sharpton Tongue. Worst VP pick since, well, Palin.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2011, 11:55:23 am »



Clinton/Obama- 381
Bush/Cheney- 157
This is probably the worst case scenario against any democrat for Bush in 2008. I believe that Bush could win in the 2008 scenario.

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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2011, 08:03:04 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2011, 08:14:17 pm by FL ST 800.02 »

You have to understand that D turnout would be at least as  high as in real life while R turnout, even with Rove's machine, would be even worse than in real life.

My guess-

Election Day Job Approval- 32%
George W. Bush/ Richard B. Cheney  PV 42.4% 442 EVs
Barack H. Obama/ Joseph R. Biden    PV 56.2%   96 EVs



Or perhaps there would be some 3rd Party emergining


Election Day Job Approval- 32%
George W. Bush/ Richard B. Cheney  PV 36.4% 460 EVs
Barack H. Obama/ Joseph R. Biden    PV 54.9%   78 EVs
Ron Paul/Bob Barr                             PV   7.1%     0 EVs


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tb75
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2011, 10:38:39 am »



Bush/Cheney vs. Clinton/Manchin

Bush would have been lucky to have done as well as Carter in 1980.

I would give GA and NC to Bush, but besides that you are right on the money
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Jack1475
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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2011, 12:29:59 am »

I think he would have done about the same as John McCain.  The Republican turnout would be higher, but the Democratic turnout would also be higher as he has both fans and enemies.
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HuckReagan
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2011, 08:10:35 am »

Bush/Pawlenty ...  226 electoral votes

Obama/Biden....   312 electoral votes

Even though Bush was a unpopular president incumbnent replacing Cheney with Pawlenty increased his electoral vote saving Indiana, North Carolina, and by the skin of their teeth, Florida after heavy campaigning there.
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shua
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2011, 02:23:53 pm »

Obama/Biden  457  56%
Bush/Pawlenty 81  38%
Paul/Goldwater    5%

I think Bush still wins a majority of counties, but Obama is competitive by this measure as well.
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Cath
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2011, 02:30:36 pm »

Obama/Biden  457  56%
Bush/Pawlenty 81  38%
Paul/Goldwater    5%


Based on the LA taxpayer nomination? Cheesy
I think Bush still wins a majority of counties, but Obama is competitive by this measure as well.
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mondale84
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2011, 12:00:45 am »

These were Bush's approval numbers on election day according to exit polls....



...not a pretty picture...(I don't have A/D numbers for the CDs in Maine and Nebraska)

I would assume Bush would win states where his approvals are greater than 40%, though maybe not Texas...it's also possible he would win AR and WV due to Obama's poor cultural fit...something like this maybe:



Obama 451
Bush 38
Tossup 49


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shua
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2011, 01:31:28 pm »

Obama/Biden  457  56%
Bush/Pawlenty 81  38%
Paul/Goldwater    5%



I think Bush still wins a majority of counties, but Obama is competitive by this measure as well.
Based on the LA taxpayer nomination? Cheesy
Yep, that's where I got the idea. I imagine in this scenario Paul goes for the Libertarian rather than the Republican nomination, and is also endorsed by Constitution Party.
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Scott
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2011, 02:21:12 pm »
« Edited: September 13, 2011, 02:33:11 pm by Scott »



Clinton/Obama- 445 EVs
Bush/Cheney- 93 EVs
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2011, 11:40:11 pm »



Hillary Clinton-Wes Clark:       56%    447 EV's
George W Bush-Dick Cheney: 43%    91 EV's

Closest State is Bush's home state of Texas which he wins with under 50% of the vote and about 1% point from Clinton taking. Mississippi and Louisiana are also razor close but he narrowly holds them. Clinton takes Georgia by a few hundred votes.
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