what happens if hispanics begin voting like blacks?

[freepcrusher]

keep in mind that before the mid 1960s, blacks were similar to hispanics now in their voting patterns. If Obama wins 94 percent of the hispanic vote in 2012 (obviously not realistic), will republicans react by trying to win them back or by trying to get 65-70% of the white vote?

[Miles]

Based on the actions of the current GOP, I'd say they'd try to consolidate the white vote.

The GOP would still probably keep the Cuban block of the hispanic vote though.

[Horus]

The current GOP is the most economically far right GOP I've seen in my lifetime. Idk about voting like blacks, but 80-85% is possible.

[minionofmidas]

Barrio Latinos could easily turn to voting like Blacks, if the GOP keeps on its current discourse. (Adjusting for citizenship rates, it might even come true for turnout one day.) But I don't see any reason to make integrated HINOs changing their current marginal D voting patterns.

[Mechaman]

Barrio Latinos could easily turn to voting like Blacks, if the GOP keeps on its current discourse. (Adjusting for citizenship rates, it might even come true for turnout one day.) But I don't see any reason to make integrated HINOs changing their current marginal D voting patterns.

Hispanic in Name Only?
You know I was about to make a comment about how hard it is for one to trace back their ethnic origins or whatever but you make an interesting point here.  There is a growing number of "integrated" Hispanics out there that identify politically like the average white person. Hell, second and third generations exhibit a high rate of defection to Protestantism. Granted, a study in 2000 showed that 70% of Hispanic Americans identified as Catholic, but a lot can change in 10 years, a lot more in 20 or 30.  Although there has been a renewal in xenophobia amongst the Republican Party if the trend of integration continues for middle-upper Hispanics (who could become increasingly Protestant) the voting demographics of that group could become decisively less Democratic as more and more Hispanics start identifying with mainstream white America.
Kind of like the integration of the other HINOs, though that is a bit more complicated when you take in account of the Protestant Scotch Irish who were already here long before the huge Catholic wave of immigration in the 1840s and 1850s.  Aww hell f*** it, you guys knew where I was going with this anyhow.
Point is that when it comes to immigrants from overwhelmingly Catholic countries it is usual for the first few generations of new Americans to lean Democratic because they perceive them to be the party of immigrants and because of perceived nativism on the other side.  Later on as their descendants begin to integrate into the American culture they begin to turn Protestant, go up the income bracket and then shift Republican (maybe not become Republican but lower the usual heavy Democratic margins).
Just a theory folks, please don't go apesh*t.

With that said though I don't see Hispanics voting 95% Democratic anytime soon unless an insane crazy who is running on a platform of "shoot to kill" border defense and "deport all the spics" is running on the Republican side.

[freepcrusher]

well what caused blacks to go from 68% Kennedy in 1960 to 94% Johnson in 1964? I'm sure before the 1964 election, people were beginning to think that blacks were beginning to assimilate and that there was a rise in BINOs.

[DS0816]

Based on the actions of the current GOP, I'd say they'd try to consolidate the white vote.

The GOP would still probably keep the Cuban block of the hispanic vote though.

That's what numerous Republicans pols did in 2010, and what has continued for some in 2011. As if the 2012 Republican nominee might unseat President Obama by winning an addition 10% or 15% of whites. Desperate, dumb, delusional trash.

[ag]

Just a not on protestantism among the Hispanics. One should consider this together with fairly massive conversion to protestantism within Latin America: it's not always part of integration, but, rather, a continuation of what's happening within, say, Mexico.

In Mexico protestant conversion is, mostly, happening among the lower classes, especially among the Natives, especially in the South. Chiapas by now is barely 60% Catholic and in a few other states Catholics are closer to 80%. Of course, the Bajio plateau stays, mostly, Catholic (Guanajuato, for instance, is close to 100%). But even in Mexico City non-Catholics are approaching 10% of the population. There is a lot of conversion to evangelical protestantism, to pentecostalism, etc. And, given that the protestants are both poor and, at least, literate - they have to read the Bible - they are also quite mobile, so I wouldn't be surprized if their proportion among the migrants is, actually, higher.

[albaleman]

They'd attempt to consolidate the white vote.

The GOP has shown absolutely no interest in reaching out to minority groups, and given the hardheadedness of some of their leaders, I doubt that will change.

[RI]

Is it possible to consolidate the white vote? Maybe in some states, but aren't there enough white liberals to make that near impossible?

[izixs]

Is it possible to consolidate the white vote? Maybe in some states, but aren't there enough white liberals to make that near impossible?

Exactly. That's why its a bad strategic choice long term. When you run on scare tactics against a particular ethnic group, you alienate that ethnic group and anyone whom isn't a part of that ethnic group who doesn't believe in that sort of bigotry (either subtle or obvious), a number of which are of course going to be in one of the ethnic groups you are not disparaging. As such, its not a way to win 80-90% of an ethnic group, but is a way to get the other side to win 80-90% of your opposed ethnic group.

[Heimdal]

The GOP doesn't really have a choice here, not if they want to win elections. If the Hispanics start to vote like the blacks we will soon loose Texas, Arizona and we can forget about winning Colorado and Nevada.
So it is actually a question of survival. I think many Republicans realize this.

[Dgov]

What if White voters started to vote like Blacks?  that would really be bad for the Republican party, and so they should take steps not to alienate this critical voting group.

/sarc

yeah, not gonna happen.  If anything, Hispanics are going to start voting more Republican as they further integrate into American society.  The reasons blacks jumped so much was because the Democrats convinced them that Reagan wanted to reintroduce segregation (States rights is a secret codeword after all) and that the Republican party is full of evil racist hicks.

They're already done that (or tried anyway) for Hispanics.  Does anyone honestly think that there's a bunch of Republican-voting Hispanics out there that are going to suddenly jump ship to the Democrats?  If the Republican party's immigration platform hasn't "alienated" them enough to become Democrats already, why would it in the future?

[RI]

I think the Dems could win 80%+ of the Hispanic vote if they ran a pro-life nominee who actively reached out to them. Won't happen though.

[DS0816]

The GOP doesn't really have a choice here, not if they want to win elections. If the Hispanics start to vote like the blacks we will soon loose Texas, Arizona and we can forget about winning Colorado and Nevada.
So it is actually a question of survival. I think many Republicans realize this.

The GOP does have a choice: change the brand of the party; come with new ways of leadership that aren't corporatist while hiding behind religion and incorporating Pat Buchanan's strategy of the late-1960s/early-1970s (slice-and-dice the electorate). This current incarnation is a loser for today's Republican Party.

This is also the answer to survival.

[All Along The Watchtower]

In the short-term, the GOP 'wave" will still have traction and backlash against Obama and the Democrats. Hispanics don't make up enough of the electorate to be as reliable as blacks are to the Democrats.

In the medium-term, the GOP "wave" will fizzle out and Democrats will rebound and essentially clean the clocks of the GOP, aided by younger voters and by more Hispanic, Asian, and black voters.

In the long-term, the parties will re-align. I could conceivably see a lot of older Asians and Hispanics voting more Republican (along with many older whites), while younger whites, Asians, Hispanics, and blacks in general, along with some older Hispanics, Asians, and whites, will vote Democratic.

[Miles]

A good article on this

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/18/poll-latino-voters-widely-negative-about-gop_n_837717.html

"Only 26 percent of Latinos polled viewed Republicans favorably, while 62 percent had a favorable view of Democrats...Approximately one-third of Latino voters say they will never vote for a Republican."

[Dgov]

A good article on this

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/18/poll-latino-voters-widely-negative-about-gop_n_837717.html

"Only 26 percent of Latinos polled viewed Republicans favorably, while 62 percent had a favorable view of Democrats...Approximately one-third of Latino voters say they will never vote for a Republican."

 . . . in California, where the GOP rarely gets more than 25% of them.  I assume the numbers are much better in Texas or Colorado where they vote closer to even.

[Person Man]

Well, they are better in Texas, anyways...

[Sbane]

Hispanics won't start voting like Blacks I don't think, unless the pubbies really double down on the anti-immigrant rhetoric. That would hurt them pretty badly with Asians too so it would be a bad strategy. The problem for the GOP really is that a lot of it's "base" actually is very anti-immigrant and would love a shoot to kill border policy and other wonderful things like randomly pulling over brownies to check their immigration status. In the mid-long term though I think the pubbies will come to their senses and Hispanics will vote more Republican. Hey they might even join in to hate on whatever new group the republican "base" is obsessed with.

[ag]

Hispanics won´t vote like blacks, because, as a group, they are less homogenous. There Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Cubans, there are new migrants and people whose ancestors haven´t moved for centuries, etc., etc. But a certain further swing of many of these groups away from GOP is still quite likely.