What will happen to Scott Walker?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Option 1 I bet.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Way too early to tell; ultimately, his re-election will hinge on his cumulative actions for the next several years. And the idea of him being recalled is flat out ridiculous with his current approval numbers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Way too early to tell; ultimately, his re-election will hinge on his cumulative actions for the next several years. And the idea of him being recalled is flat out ridiculous with his current approval numbers.

Yeah only 57% disapproval is fantastic!

[Sam Spade]

You don't want a recall to happen.  But don't let that stop you from making it happen, of course.

As for this far out - I have no clue.  All I know is what happened to public sector unions today pales in comparison to what will happen in future years, regardless of who controls things.  That's what happens when you're broke, but no one understands why.

[ShamDam]

Option 3. Scott Walker seems to be operating in a way where he will do as much as he can to change Wisconsin to match his beliefs, without regard to reelection. So he'll make his mark and then he's out of here. Still, I could see him running again if he feels the itch, which most politicians do. But to me option 3 is the favorite, and I see Option 1 as the least likely.

[MasterJedi]

Way too early to tell, he won't be recalled though so he'll either be re-elected or lose but a lot will happen before 2014. Hell, a lot will happen before any elections in WI take place in 2012.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I doubt he'll be recalled. But I'd put money on him losing re-election.

[The Dowager Mod]

This stunt has energized the dem base like nothing else could.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

No. I don't think he gets recalled. I can see him getting kicked out in 2014, though.

[Nichlemn]

Voters tend to put more emphasis on actions taken in the latter stage of the term, so I think Walker's current approvals will be a fairly weak predictor of his re-election chances. Think how Mitch Daniels was unpopular for some of his actions early in his first term. Then again, these protests are unusually large, so perhaps they'll have more impact on the next election than normal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think he may ultimately lose reelection in 2014, but reforming Public sector unions are here to stay for the indefinate future. Expecially pension reform which I support. It will ultimately hinge on his promise to create jobs.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So does Wisconsin's recall system work like California's? There's a yes/no question, then a "Who do you want to replace Walker?" question? Because otherwise wouldn't the awful Lt. Governor take over?

[Holmes]

I read an article that said that the challenged senator is automatically placed on the ballot, and anyone who collects 400 signatures, I think, is also placed on the ballot. The top two vote-getters have a run off. I'm assuming this would be the same for governor. So it doesn't seem that there's a "do you have so and so to be recalled?" question.

edit:

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http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110308/GPG0101/103080528/Protesters-collect-1-200-signatures-recall-Wisconsin-Sen-Robert-Cowles

[Brittain33]

You don't want a recall to happen.

"Don't throw me into that briar patch."

I'm having trouble identifying any potential downside to a Walker recall... for Democrats, that is. Even if they lose, they're no worse off than they were before. Maybe Walker can summon a massive groundswell of support that repudiates Democrats and humiliates them--but that makes them, again, no worse off than where 2010 left us.

In the meantime, Walker's time and energy has been wasted to hold onto an office he's already won.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

[Nhoj]

Losing reelection in 2014, seems most likely.

[Napoleon]

He will probably win re-election with more votes than he received in 2010 against a weak opponent.

[Napoleon]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

[Brittain33]

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

There is no way to project the reelection chances of a governor with 3.7 years left until election day unless there's been a horrible scandal.

[Napoleon]

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

There is no way to project the reelection chances of a governor with 3.7 years left until election day unless there's been a horrible scandal.

Obviously I know that. Why are you directing this toward me and not the OP? This whole thread is speculative so I'm giving mine. Sheesh.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

There is no way to project the reelection chances of a governor with 3.7 years left until election day unless there's been a horrible scandal.

     Though if the scandal is big enough to seriously impact a governor's re-election odds 3.7 years later, he would most likely end up resigning in disgrace within a couple weeks of it breaking. Having crummy approval ratings is never a good thing, but there is considerable precedent for governors having Walker-esque approval ratings much closer to election day & still pulling through.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Option 4

[HappyWarrior]

I doubt he'll be recalled. But I'd put money on him losing re-election.

[Brittain33]

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

There is no way to project the reelection chances of a governor with 3.7 years left until election day unless there's been a horrible scandal.

Obviously I know that. Why are you directing this toward me and not the OP? This whole thread is speculative so I'm giving mine. Sheesh.

The OP had a point in that Walker could be facing a recall in the immediate future or could not... but even so, I don't understand how someone can have any confidence at all in the future direction of Kasich or Snyder, especially counter to the general flow of the states.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

There is no way to project the reelection chances of a governor with 3.7 years left until election day unless there's been a horrible scandal.

While this is obviously true, there are some things to keep in mind about these three governors.  Walker would probably have lost to Barrett had 2010 not been such a monumentally bad year for Democrats, even if it had been a little bit more Republican than average, Barrett still would've likely won (although it might've been a small margin).  In 2014, Republicans will control most statewide offices in Wisconsin, on top of which, Walker is a proudly right-wing partisan in a (usually) left-of-center state (meaning that he would more likely than not face a strong challenger for reelection no matter what, the Democratic bench in Wisconsin took a big hit, but it wasn't wiped out by any means).  Additionally, some politicians (such as Kasich and Rand Paul) have a talent for sounding a lot more thoughtful and reasonable their positions actually are, but Walker has had this skill (at least, not to the degree he needs to in a state like Wisconsin).  It's not unreasonable to suggest that Walker may have thought he'd have a tough reelection race no matter what, and decided to instead go for as far right an agenda as he could even if it means he COULD end up a political dead man walking).  In Ohio, I think Kasich's situation is different, but with the same conclusion.  Strickland only lost because many Ohio voters (including many who would have voted for him all things being equal) felt that he had not fixed Ohio's economic problems in his first term (an outrageous expectation, but a very real one).  Had it not been for this, Kasich would have lost (probably by 5-10 pts).  The problems that have wrecked Ohio's economy, are causing people to flee everywhere in the state (aside from Columbus and its suburbs, which are growing) like it's the center of the earth, and decimated Cleveland (among other things) are not things Kasich would realistically be able to fix in his first term (especially not with the budget he's supporting).  Given that Richard Cordray (the strongest possible Democratic candidate) all but said he's going to run in 2014 right after the election, Kasich may have figured he'd lose for the same reason Strickland did and decided to try to both pass as far right an agenda as possible and guarantee that he'd never have to worry about getting the core Republican base in Ohio to turn out (even if he tried to tack to the center in 2014).  However, I will give you that in hindsight, my theory doesn't work very well with Snyder and I shouldn't have lumped him in with Walker and Kasich.  Lastly, I've got to say, I'm surprised Corbett hasn't tried to jump on Walker's bandwagon.  They seem to have a fairly similar temperament and Corbett is certainly not above using elected office to go after political opponents.  Are unions really more powerful in PA than in Ohio or Wisconsin, or is it something else?  Could a poster more knowledgable about that neck of the woods shed some light on this?