MO-PPP: Huckabee and Romney ahead against Obama

[Ben Romney]

O-Palin: 48/43
O-Gingrich: 44/44
O-Romney: 43/44
O-Huck: 43/49

[Ben Romney]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/03/missouri-closeexcept-with-huck-or-palin.html

The reason Obama's still competitive in Missouri despite his own unpopularity is the weakness of the Republican candidate field against him. Only Huckabee has net positive favorability numbers, with 45% rating him favorably to 35% with an unfavorable opinion. Voters are quite negative toward Gingrich (31/50) and even Romney (32/44), allowing Obama to stay competitive with them despite his own poor numbers. And of course Palin's figures are the worst with 56% of voters expressing a negative opinion of her to only 37% with a positive one.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I think this is the first time we've seen Huckabee really outclassing Romney in a general election matchup anywhere. Combined with Romney's lackluster primary polling recently, is it possible that he's collapsing? It seems rather absurd for a major change to happen at this early juncture, but the pattern is quite bizarre.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

    I think this is the first time we've seen Huckabee really outclassing Romney in a general election matchup anywhere.

Check the positions of Arkansas and Missouri on a map.

[Mr. Morden]

     I think this is the first time we've seen Huckabee really outclassing Romney in a general election matchup anywhere.

What are you talking about?  Just look here:

link

and here:

link

There have been plenty of general election polls (both national and statewide) in which Huckabee has done at least a point or two (and sometimes more) better than Romney.  Heck, look at Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia, where Huck is doing at least 5 points better than Romney, just like here.

[albaleman]

A very weak showing for Obama, especially against Gingrich. Missouri really is rejoining the south, and it's happening a lot faster than I thought it would.

These numbers makes McCaskill's performance look even more impressive.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I think this is the first time we've seen Huckabee really outclassing Romney in a general election matchup anywhere.

What are you talking about?  Just look here:

link

and here:

link

There have been plenty of general election polls (both national and statewide) in which Huckabee has done at least a point or two (and sometimes more) better than Romney.  Heck, look at Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia, where Huck is doing at least 5 points better than Romney, just like here.

     I haven't really paid much mind to nationwide polls, for what it's worth.

     Also, the statewide polls more or less support what I said. There are six states that have had polls come out this year before this showing Huckabee doing more than 1-2% better against Obama: California, Iowa, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, & West Virginia. North Carolina's the only one where this has made an actual difference, & the state had another poll this year where they were within 1% of each other.

     Anyway, my comment was also in reaction to the recent primary polls out of Wisconsin & Maine, showing Romney polling a very poor fourth place. I don't see how he could get the nomination if he's polling fourth in a state where he beat McCain by 31%, though granted caucus polling tends to be rather crummy.

[HAnnA MArin County]

A very weak showing for Obama, especially against Gingrich. Missouri really is rejoining the south, and it's happening a lot faster than I thought it would.

These numbers makes McCaskill's performance look even more impressive.

I don't think Missouri is joining the South. If that were the case, Missouri would have voted for McCain by well over 55 percent of the vote, and he didn't even crack 50 percent here. Elections are always close in Missouri; in no other Southern state are elections as close as they are, so I still argue that we are still a pretty representative state of the nation; the southern parts of the state do tend to self-identify more as "Southern," whereas the northern parts of the state tend to self-identify more as "Midwestern."

It's just that the rural areas are becoming more Republican (I know, I live in the real Missouri, if you will). It's cliched but people who live in the cracker parts of the state do vote with their Bibles over their pocketbooks (save for a handful of counties in the Lead Belt, i.e. Iron and Washington); that, along with regional/geographical proximity, is why Huckabee has the largest lead. If you look back at the 2008 GOP primary here, you'll see that Huckabee won a majority of the rural counties and that his best performance was in Southwest Missouri and the counties that border Arkansas. IIRC, the rural areas here are losing population (rural flight), so I don't think the state will "trend" much more Republican, but I may revise my opinion after I look at the composite results of the census data.

But I must say, I'm surprised Obama is doing so well here especially against Romney, and kudos to my state for not being dumb enough to vote for Queen Sarah. Show-Me No Stupidity State

[opebo]

...people who live in the cracker parts of the state do vote with their Bibles over their pocketbooks (save for a handful of counties in the Lead Belt, i.e. Iron and Washington)

Yes!  I know those counties very well, Hill, and I would add to that list St. Genevieve County (another rural county with kind of 'industrial' politics).

[krazen1211]

I don't think Missouri is joining the South. If that were the case, Missouri would have voted for McCain by well over 55 percent of the vote, and he didn't even crack 50 percent here. Elections are always close in Missouri; in no other Southern state are elections as close as they are, so I still argue that we are still a pretty representative state of the nation; the southern parts of the state do tend to self-identify more as "Southern," whereas the northern parts of the state tend to self-identify more as "Midwestern."

It's just that the rural areas are becoming more Republican (I know, I live in the real Missouri, if you will). It's cliched but people who live in the cracker parts of the state do vote with their Bibles over their pocketbooks (save for a handful of counties in the Lead Belt, i.e. Iron and Washington); that, along with regional/geographical proximity, is why Huckabee has the largest lead. If you look back at the 2008 GOP primary here, you'll see that Huckabee won a majority of the rural counties and that his best performance was in Southwest Missouri and the counties that border Arkansas. IIRC, the rural areas here are losing population (rural flight), so I don't think the state will "trend" much more Republican, but I may revise my opinion after I look at the composite results of the census data.

But I must say, I'm surprised Obama is doing so well here especially against Romney, and kudos to my state for not being dumb enough to vote for Queen Sarah. Show-Me No Stupidity State

It's not the rural areas that are shedding population; its St. Louis and Kansas City.

[danny]

It's not the rural areas that are shedding population; its St. Louis and Kansas City.

St. Louis lost population, Kansas city gained, amongst rural areas some gained and some lost.
In fact looking at this map:
http://2010.census.gov/news/img/cb11cn49_mo_perchange_2010map.jpg

you can see that both Obama's best county (St. Louis city) and Mccain's best county (rural Barton) lost population.

[krazen1211]

It's not the rural areas that are shedding population; its St. Louis and Kansas City.

St. Louis lost population, Kansas city gained, amongst rural areas some gained and some lost.
In fact looking at this map:
http://2010.census.gov/news/img/cb11cn49_mo_perchange_2010map.jpg

you can see that both Obama's best county (St. Louis city) and Mccain's best county (rural Barton) lost population.

Jackson County gained, but Kansas City didn't, at least not much. Cleaver's 5th district is 114k short on population, and other than the 2 St. Louis districts, its the smallest in the state.

[HAnnA MArin County]

...people who live in the cracker parts of the state do vote with their Bibles over their pocketbooks (save for a handful of counties in the Lead Belt, i.e. Iron and Washington)

Yes!  I know those counties very well, Hill, and I would add to that list St. Genevieve County (another rural county with kind of 'industrial' politics).

Ah, we're speaking so close to home for me. I live in Bollinger County, not too far from these counties we're mentioning.

I think the reason Ste. Genevieve County is so Democratic is because of it's French-American heritage and it's an exurb of St. Louis. It has been reliably in the blue column since 1984, I do believe. It's a part of the Lead Belt, too, and there is a mining constituency in some parts of the county as well as in St. Francois and Reynolds counties which are heavily Democratic at the local level and elections are close in state and federal races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steelman doesn't have the name recognition as a Roy Blunt. But I don't think that the race is a lose lose for the gop in the senate. The GOP is on the verge of recapturing the senate and once it falls, MO and OH may go with VA, MT, NEb, and ND.

[pbrower2a]

I am reviving a thread for a March poll because little changes except the introduction of Donald Trump as a putative candidate. Newt Gingrich, who was projected to lead President Obama in March, has slipped behind.   

Missouri,  PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0513.pdf

Missouri Survey Results

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[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Trump

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The sample is too Republican, based on the Obama-McCain question.

Also, isn't Obama somewhat more popular now? Based on polls, the Bin Laden bump is only starting to die down.

[Smash255]

The sample is too Republican, based on the Obama-McCain question.

Also, isn't Obama somewhat more popular now? Based on polls, the Bin Laden bump is only starting to die down.

The release is new, but the poll was actually conducted  right before the killing of Bin Laden (April 28th-May 1st)

[pbrower2a]

The sample is too Republican, based on the Obama-McCain question.

Also, isn't Obama somewhat more popular now? Based on polls, the Bin Laden bump is only starting to die down.

The release is new, but the poll was actually conducted  right before the killing of Bin Laden (April 28th-May 1st)

It also refers to 'voters'. The projected margin for victory of Mitt Romney in Missouri has become razor-thin, and I am not surprised that Mike Huckabee does quite well in Missouri; southern Missouri, basically anything south of the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas, is politically and economically much like Arkansas. President Obama did badly in the Mountain South -- the Ozarks and Appalachians -- likely because he is such a cultural non-fit to the area. Who runs can matter greatly in any state.

Missouri is drifting R.  Missouri, which has a fire-and-ice climate that is more likely to cause retirees to flee than to attract them, didn't show the gains for the President that Arizona showed. It's not nice to scare Grandpa and Grandma about privatizing Medicare, and that's one way to turn the elderly against Republicans. But such is more of a hazard in a retiree haven like Arizona than in a state with a relatively-young population like Missouri.

Did anyone notice that newt Gingrich went behind President Obama in Missouri? I see that more as the fade of Gingrich than the strengthening of Obama.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Still, the point that this sample is too R stands.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Still, the point that this sample is too R stands.

     Not really, or at least not definitely so. If the President is unpopular, some people who actually voted for him will say they voted for his opponent. Likewise, if the President is popular, people will claim they voted for him when they didn't.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Still, the point that this sample is too R stands.

     Not really, or at least not definitely so. If the President is unpopular, some people who actually voted for him will say they voted for his opponent. Likewise, if the President is popular, people will claim they voted for him when they didn't.

It's an anonymous poll.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Still, the point that this sample is too R stands.

     Not really, or at least not definitely so. If the President is unpopular, some people who actually voted for him will say they voted for his opponent. Likewise, if the President is popular, people will claim they voted for him when they didn't.

It's an anonymous poll.

     So? People don't like stating that they voted for someone that is unpopular, whether or not they know whomever is hearing the statement. PPP does robo-calls, though, so the effect probably isn't as strong as it would be if they did live calls.