Preferred Republican Candidate
When survey respondents were asked to choose their preferred Republican nominee from a list of 11 possible candidates, only five of those candidates registered support among at least 4% of adults. The favorites were the trio of former governors (Romney 13%, Palin 13%, Huckabee 12%) followed by Cong. Paul (8%) and former Cong. Gingrich (6%). Other choices included Governor Tim Pawlenty (3%), Senator John Thune (1%), Governor Mitch Daniels (1%), Senator Jim DeMint (1%), ex-Senator Rick Santorum (1%), and Governor Haley Barbour (1%). Four percent of adults named other individuals they would support. The biggest winner of all, however, was “none of the above” which garnered 38% of the response – much of it from Democrats who have no plans of voting for any Republican candidate for the presidency.
When the figures are examined only among registered Republicans, the numbers change – but not as much as might be expected. The favorites remained Mr. Romney (20%), Mr. Huckabee (17%), Mrs. Palin (15%), and Mr. Gingrich (13%), with Mr. Paul and Gov. Pawlenty at 5% each.Among born again Christians, a slightly different ranking emerged. For that group, Mr. Huckabee was the leader (18%), followed by Mrs. Palin (15%), and Mr. Romney (13%). Single-digit support was given to Mr. Gingrich (8%), Mr. Paul (6%), and Mr. Pawlenty (3%).
Catholics showed a different slant from Protestants. Among the Catholic populace, the favorites were Mr. Romney (15%) and Mr. Huckabee (13%). Mrs. Palin was the only other Republican in double digits (10%), trailed by Mr. Paul (7%) and Mr. Gingrich (6%). Among Protestants, though, the frontrunners were Mr. Huckabee (16%) and Mrs. Palin (16%), trailed by Mr. Romney (11%), Mr. Gingrich (8%) and Mr. Paul (7%).
Because states have divergent rules regarding voting in primary elections, a critical eye must also be kept on the preferences of those who are independent voters. Among that group, the favorites are notably different. Mr. Romney leads the pack (18%), but close behind is Dr. Paul (15%), then Mr. Huckabee (13%) and Mrs. Palin (11%). Mr. Gingrich fares poorly among the independents (5%).
The Horse Race
If the election for the presidency were held today, Mr. Obama stands a better-than-even chance of being re-elected. Of course, his chances depend on the identity of his opponent – and the survey showed that Mrs. Palin would be the easiest opponent for him to defeat, while Mr. Huckabee would be the toughest adversary.
In a match-up against Mrs. Palin, the incumbent holds a 43% to 23% lead among likely voters. In comparison, Mr. Obama generated a 33% to 23% lead among likely voters when paired against Mr. Romney, and a 35% to 26% lead over Mr. Huckabee.
The most striking feature of those contests, however, is how many people are not firmly in support of either candidate. In other words, it’s still an open race 20 months before Election Day in November 2012. But people are watching the prospective candidates and forming their opinions. A year from now, as the primary battles unfold, there will be less leeway in people’s minds about who deserves the opportunity to serve them in the White House.
About the Research
This report is based upon telephone interviews conducted in the OmniPoll℠ (part of the Barna Poll from the Barna Group). This study consisted of a random sample of 1,021 adults selected from across the continental United States, age 18 and older, February 10 through February 18, 2011. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Minimal statistical weighting was used to calibrate the aggregate sample to known population percentages in relation to several key demographic variables.
http://www.barna.org/culture-articles/478-christian-preferences-2012
