who do you THINK will win the 2012 Republican nomination?

[anvi]

Points taken.  However, there are significant weaknesses with Daniels as well.  Besides being President Bush's OMB Director, wouldn't Daniels' recent comments regarding the Wisconsin Crisis hurt (perhaps fatally) his potential candidacy with the Tea Party who now decide these contests?

I agree, Daniels has some vulnerabilities too.  His opponents, both during the primary and the general, will definitely try to pin much of our deficit woes on him.  He will try to counteract that with arguments about the mid-decade and with arguments about what he has done in Indiana since becoming governor.  The TEA party was not going to be for Daniels during the primary anyway, so I actually think the Wisconsin comments may help Daniels in the long run, since he came down on the issue where a large swath of GOPers do.  Plus, he eliminated collective bargaining for state employees the minute he took office as governor.  I don't believe in the end the TEA Party will decide the nomination.  The keys to the White House are held largely by Independent voters, and the GOP will nominate someone who has a chance to win them.  So long as the nominee's number one issue is the debt and budget deficits, the Pubbies will fall in line during the general--they want Obama out.  The GOP nominee will have less trouble with his or her base than Obama will have with his in the fall of '12.  If he runs, I think Daniels will end up being best positioned and best suited to win the nomination.

[Bull Moose Base]

I don't think appeal to Independents goes a long way in the primary.  Especially after the 2010 primaries showed Tea Party muscle and the Republicans won even with more conservative nominees in many places.  If it got down to Daniels and Palin, yes, his electability advantage would help him.  But Pawlenty is probably in the same neighborhood electability-wise, but he's been shamelessly pandering to all elements of the base, Daniels has been alienating.  If it's those two standing, my bet's on Pawlenty.  In short, no pun intended, Daniels appeals to Indies for the very same reasons he may get no traction in a primary.  Like Huntsman, maybe the party will be ready for him in 2016.

[Ben Romney]

Mitt Romney!

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney will probably win NH and FL.  If he doesn't win IA and SC too, the winner(s) of those states will compete with him in a drawn out race.  Best bets on the anti-Romney: Huckabee, Palin if they run, otherwise Pawlenty, Barbour or Gingrich.  Other than Huckabee, Romney would have an advantage (not insurmountable though) over any of them.  Since the OP points out this will be our spectator sport next winter with no football, I suggest everyone roots for Palin and Gingrich to last a while.  After Trump, Cain and Paul are out, we don't want to be stuck with boring Romney-Pawlenty debates.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Romney, if not, Huck.

I have a sense we shouldn't underestimate Gingrich.......I don't know why.

[Torie]

What makes you think Mitch Daniels is better positioned to win the nomination than his fellow midwesterner, Tim Pawlenty?  

Oh, I think that Pawlenty was not a very effective governor, particularly regarding Mennesota's economy and budget difficulties. Plus, his attempt to grab conservatives support by calling for the reinstatement of DADT is not going to do much to draw Independents in a prospective general.  On top of that, the Republican party establishment has never been wild about Pawlenty; he wanted to run for the Senate in Minnesota a couple of times, and was talked down by the party both times.  Daniels will be able to line up more support among state party people during a primary season.  Daniels is more articulate than Pawlenty too, having a greater grasp of the issues while still being able to talk about them clearly, whereas, while Pawlenty can come off well sometimes, at other times he just sounds cheesy.  So, basically, Daniels' better reputation with the party and greater ability to appeal to Indies make him a better candidate than Pawlenty, it seems to me.

This.

[Torie]

Romney, if not, Huck.

I have a sense we shouldn't underestimate Gingrich.......I don't know why.

Don't frighten me this way, Gramps! 

[feeblepizza]

I agree with anvikshiki's logic: Daniels will be the nominee. If not, then I'm going to take a wild guess and say Herman Cain. He's going to be 2012's Huckabee: from nothing to front-runner in a space of a year.

[krazen1211]

Points taken.  However, there are significant weaknesses with Daniels as well.  Besides being President Bush's OMB Director, wouldn't Daniels' recent comments regarding the Wisconsin Crisis hurt (perhaps fatally) his potential candidacy with the Tea Party who now decide these contests?

The 24 hour news cycle causes a lot more hysteria over small stuff than we would have seen 30 years ago. I don't see anything fatal going on this far ahead of the election.

[RogueBeaver]

Mitt Romney: next-in-line rule.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Mitt Romney: next-in-line rule.

Huckabee could claim that rule as much as mittless. But I'm standing by who I said earlier

Ron Paul

[Bacon King]

Palin. It's a crowded field and you don't need a majority of popular votes. Her supporters are solid for her.

I am yet to be convinced she is actually running.

You think this was just for fun?

I thought it was for $$$$$$$

[Marokai Backbeat]

Romney or Gingrich.

[Penelope]

Romney.

These guesses for Daniels, etc are comedy gold.

[Psychic Octopus]

Mitt Romney, although I'm hoping for Mitch Daniels. I too think that we shouldn't really dismiss Gingrich; he's a strong debater, a strong campaigner, and despite his terribly damaging personal life, has always had the respect of the base. He's not to be taken lightly, although I don't think he'll win the nomination.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'm certainly hoping for (and voting for) Caribou Barbie. You betcha. I do believe she is running.

[Yelnoc]

Romney.

These guesses for Daniels, etc are comedy gold.

Your mom is comedy gold.

[Oakvale]

I don't know. Huckabee and Palin don't look likely to run, so my first instinct is the same as everyone else's - Romney - but I really don't see how he makes it past the healthcare attacks.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Pawlenty or Gingrich get it.

[milhouse24]

I'm sticking with Haley Barbour!!!

[milhouse24]

Mitt Romney: next-in-line rule.

Umm, sez you and Mitt's PR company.

How about an actual GOP conservative with 2 terms as governor and is from the South (and not northeast).

Mitt can wait until he's 70 like Reagan.

Go with someone like T-Paw or Barbour (hint, one of them was RNC chairman, a lot of GOP goodwill, and is actually next in line)

[RogueBeaver]

T-Paw has no name recognition and historically in the GOP (the opposite holds true for the Dems, who pick the most promising dark horse: Carter, Clinton, Obama) if you don't have name recognition at this point you aren't going anywhere. The long National Journal article on Romney's frontrunner status confirms this. While Barbour is a much better pick for me ideologically his aura projects almost exactly the wrong image: a self-described "fat redneck" from Yazoo, Mississippi and a veteran lobbyist to boot. I respect Barbour, his accomplishments and capabilities, but I can't see him as the nominee. Gingrich is just as polarizing as Palin and as ill-disciplined as McCain a good of the time.


Oakvale: a mea culpa would only cment his flip-flopper image, so the best thing would be to say that he experimented unsuccessfully and that the states are policy labs. The others also have liabilities: no one is without a major flaw among the 4 top candidates. When the RNC comes around he can hand that over to his running mate.

[Penelope]

Romney.

These guesses for Daniels, etc are comedy gold.

Your mom is comedy gold.

...in bed. /lame jokes

[pbrower2a]

Romney. He wins primaries in a bunch of states that the Republicans have practically no chance of winning in 2012, and picks up a huge number of delegates. He has little to lose by running; he's not on Rupert Murdoch's payroll.  In a brokered convention he looks like the one who has a better chance of winning than does anyone else. He might be a third or a fourth choice in many places, but that;s better than seventeenth place or so for most Republicans (that is, Barack Obama).

[Yelnoc]

Romney.

These guesses for Daniels, etc are comedy gold.

Your mom is comedy gold.

...in bed. /lame jokes

(that's what I was pointing out )

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm sticking with the Romney conventional wisdom until I see a Republican candidate (who's likely to actually run) that doesn't fall into one of the two groups that all the current likely candidates fall into: boring (Daniels/Pawlenty) or unelectable (Gingrich/Barbour). Huntsman is his own special case; he's never going to get anywhere near the nomination.