who do you THINK will win the 2012 Republican nomination?

[© tweed]

which of the business class representatives will it be? for those unfamiliar, this was a lil hobby of mine on the boards back in the 07-08 season; I still 3x a year get a kick out of going back and looking at the Atlas public opinion jump around like an insect; McCain's meteoric rise from not even on the radar to heavy frontrunner in 2 weeks, Obama goes from trailing Gore in Sept/Oct to favorite to heavy dog and back again; so say everything that I've come to say about this brand of political system, it is entertaining, with its emphasis on personality not policy. given the impending NFL and NBA labor stoppages we're going to all need a spectator sport next winter, and it's the Republican Party of the USA's nominating process to the rescue.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Ron Paul

[President Mitt]

Huckabee

[Mehmentum]

Until recently, I would say Huckabee.  Now I'm becoming convinced he's not running, and I'm not so sure...

[Bull Moose Base]

Intrade seems about right except Huckabee and Daniels should be reversed.  They're both about as probable to run and Huckabee is already a known quantity who can overcome his impure conservatism.  Daniels is unknown as his ability to get past his issues.  Palin seems a little too low.  If she went all in in Iowa and exceeded expectations in the debates- big if maybe- she would probably surge to close to Romney.

[memphis]

Palin. It's a crowded field and you don't need a majority of popular votes. Her supporters are solid for her.

[Yelnoc]

Palin. It's a crowded field and you don't need a majority of popular votes. Her supporters are solid for her.

I am yet to be convinced she is actually running.

[memphis]

Palin. It's a crowded field and you don't need a majority of popular votes. Her supporters are solid for her.

I am yet to be convinced she is actually running.

You think this was just for fun?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Romney [vomits]

[Yelnoc]

Palin. It's a crowded field and you don't need a majority of popular votes. Her supporters are solid for her.

I am yet to be convinced she is actually running.

You think this was just for fun?

Colin Powell wrote a book too.  I feel dirty comparing the two but there are similarities.

[Lambsbread]

Mitch Daniels.

[America™]

Anyone who's last name doesn't rhyme with Falin.

[Niemeyerite]

undecided between huckabee and barbour, right now

[exopolitician]

I feel like the establishment will throw its weight behind Daniels and he'll ultimately win it, if he runs anyway.

[Boris]

given the impending NFL and NBA labor stoppages we're going to all need a spectator sport next winter, and it's the Republican Party of the USA's nominating process to the rescue.

But the Isles are 19-22-5 since Scott Gordon was fired!

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Ron Paul! Hey, stranger things have happened.

[Bull Moose Base]

given the impending NFL and NBA labor stoppages we're going to all need a spectator sport next winter, and it's the Republican Party of the USA's nominating process to the rescue.

But the Isles are 19-22-5 since Scott Gordon was fired!

What on earth is that sig video or whatever you call it?

[anvi]

The more I think about it, the more I believe it will be Daniels (if he runs).  The key to winning the presidency back for the GOP in '12 to me is picking a candidate who focuses on the deficit and can attract an ever-growing number of Independents, especially those in the midwest.  He has obvious vulnerabilities on budget issues, of course.  But he fits the bill better than any other candidate in the field right now.  If he runs, Daniels.  If Daniels doesn't run, then I'd say Romney has the early edge, but I don't really know how it will shake out.

[Frodo]

The more I think about it, the more I believe it will be Daniels (if he runs).  The key to winning the presidency back for the GOP in '12 to me is picking a candidate who focuses on the deficit and can attract an ever-growing number of Independents, especially those in the midwest.  He has obvious vulnerabilities on budget issues, of course.  But he fits the bill better than any other candidate in the field right now.  If he runs, Daniels.  If Daniels doesn't run, then I'd say Romney has the early edge, but I don't really know how it will shake out.

What makes you think Mitch Daniels is better positioned to win the nomination than his fellow midwesterner, Tim Pawlenty?  

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I feel like the establishment will throw its weight behind Daniels and he'll ultimately win it, if he runs anyway.

Won't the establishment at least be split if Romney is in? Or do you think that he will crash and burn?

[anvi]

What makes you think Mitch Daniels is better positioned to win the nomination than his fellow midwesterner, Tim Pawlenty?  

Oh, I think that Pawlenty was not a very effective governor, particularly regarding Mennesota's economy and budget difficulties. Plus, his attempt to grab conservatives support by calling for the reinstatement of DADT is not going to do much to draw Independents in a prospective general.  On top of that, the Republican party establishment has never been wild about Pawlenty; he wanted to run for the Senate in Minnesota a couple of times, and was talked down by the party both times.  Daniels will be able to line up more support among state party people during a primary season.  Daniels is more articulate than Pawlenty too, having a greater grasp of the issues while still being able to talk about them clearly, whereas, while Pawlenty can come off well sometimes, at other times he just sounds cheesy.  So, basically, Daniels' better reputation with the party and greater ability to appeal to Indies make him a better candidate than Pawlenty, it seems to me.

[Likely Voter]

Well if the buzz is right (and I think it is) and Christie, Daniels, Palin and Huckabee don't run, then I dont see how anyone stops Romney.

[Frodo]

What makes you think Mitch Daniels is better positioned to win the nomination than his fellow midwesterner, Tim Pawlenty?  

Oh, I think that Pawlenty was not a very effective governor, particularly regarding Mennesota's economy and budget difficulties. Plus, his attempt to grab conservatives support by calling for the reinstatement of DADT is not going to do much to draw Independents in a prospective general.  On top of that, the Republican party establishment has never been wild about Pawlenty; he wanted to run for the Senate in Minnesota a couple of times, and was talked down by the party both times.  Daniels will be able to line up more support among state party people during a primary season.  Daniels is more articulate than Pawlenty too, having a greater grasp of the issues while still being able to talk about them clearly, whereas, while Pawlenty can come off well sometimes, at other times he just sounds cheesy.  So, basically, Daniels' better reputation with the party and greater ability to appeal to Indies make him a better candidate than Pawlenty, it seems to me.

Points taken.  However, there are significant weaknesses with Daniels as well.  Besides being President Bush's OMB Director, wouldn't Daniels' recent comments regarding the Wisconsin Crisis hurt (perhaps fatally) his potential candidacy with the Tea Party who now decide these contests?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Newt

[Mehmentum]

Not Romeny, I can't see how he can win with the Republican primary electorate, it doesn't really matter if everyone who's running against him are unknowns.  Huckabee beat Romney in Iowa after all he spent in it, and Huckabee was about as unknown as you got back in 2008.