Irish Election Results Thread

[Јas]

Two Members of the European Parliament were elected to the Dáil.

Under the system in place, they each submitted lists of substitutes before they were elected.

Joe Higgins (ULA-Dub W) will be replaced by his #2 substitute, Cllr. Ruth Coppinger. (His #1 replacement, Clare Daly was elected in Dublin N. Coppinger wasn't a candidate in the election.)

Alan Kelly (Lab-Tipp N) will also be replaced by his #2 substitute, Senator Phil Prendergast. (His #1 replacement, Arthur Spring was elected in Kerry N; Prendergast failed to get elected in Tipp S).

[Јas]

Dick Roche has called in the laywers to help his recount cause in Wicklow, where he was originally eliminated as being 3 votes behind his running-mate on Count 13.

RTÉ report that they understand the gap has widened to 5; The Irish Times reports that Roche claims the gap has fallen to 2. I know who I believe.

Roche seems to be holding out hope that if he surpasses Fitzgerald he could still get elected, which I find hard to believe. Unless Joe Behan's transfers prove remarkably friendly to whichever FF candidate is standing, it's another constituency which will return a FF wipeout.

[Јas]

FTR, the state of play right now is that 40 constituency counts are complete.
3 are undergoing re-counts.

The recounts are going on in Wicklow, Laois-Offaly and Galway W.

154 of 166 seats are allocated (70-36-18-13-5-12).


A meeting between Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore is scheduled this afternoon to discuss coalition negotiations. Such a coalition would have around a 60-seat majority, the largest absolute majority in the history of the State.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When are the recounts expected to end in the remaining 3 constituencies ?

Also, why the hell would Labour and FG try to form a coalition ? They both have nothing to win and everything to lose.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.

Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

As for Fine Gael, they would be a lot safer and freer in their policy choice by forming a minority government with the support of a few independents.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

Presumably such concerns exist, yes (particularly as that very thing has happened to them in the past; the aftermath of the 1992 election). I suspect that they will probably try to drive a harder bargain than they have done in the past.

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It isn't as though Fine Gael really believes in much as a political party and such a government would not be all that stable.

Still, early days yet. Media speculation is well ahead of itself (as usual) and is mostly based on past form.

[ObserverIE]

Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.

Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

As for Fine Gael, they would be a lot safer and freer in their policy choice by forming a minority government with the support of a few independents.

The problem for FG is that they will have a maximum of 76 seats assuming that they edge out Catherine Connolly (dissident left-wing Labour) for the last seat in Galway West.

Of the independents, they might be able to gain support on ideological grounds from Ross, Grealish (Galway West - ex-PD) and Donnelly (may sneak the last seat in Wicklow ahead of SF), which brings them to a maximum of 79.

The two Tipperary gombeens (Lowry and McGrath) might be willing to support them but it won't look good from the point of view of a "change" agenda; Michael Noonan (former leader and current finance spokesman) has warned against dependence on "high-maintenance" independents. Once you get to Ming the Merciless and The Cap Óg, then you're building a very shaky arrangement indeed.

Of course, if FF were to promise to abstain, then FG would have a majority of six on their own...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps it would make sense to unlock the older thread for post-election speculation like this?

Anyway, back to the election itself: Wicklow is looking like a complete mess. RTE report lawyers everywhere.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, let's hope that the third time Labour will finally understand how not to lose half of their votes from one election to another...

If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.

[minionofmidas]

Since Irish is treated as a majority language in theory, and English in practice, what language would that policy apply to? The Cap Mor's lingo?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PYbIGmQFLY (from 1:08)

[You kip if you want to...]

If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.

That's what i'm worried about for Irish Labour...

[minionofmidas]

Apparently Ireland also elected its first ever openly gay TD in Dominic Hannigan (Labour - Meath E)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Ireland also elected its first ever openly gay TD in Dominic Hannigan (Labour - Meath E)

He topped the poll as well.

[DL]

If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.

That's what i'm worried about for Irish Labour...

I think there are some key differences. For one thing the LibDems had NEVER previously formed a coalition of any kind and had never been in government. Also, the LibDems had spent the last 20-odd years positioning themselves as a centre-left party that was clearly angling to eventually form an alliance with Labour. The Tories were never seen as a "natural coalition partner" of theirs and on top of that since the Tories have over 300 seats and the LibDems just 50 or so - the LibDems are  heavily, heavily diluted within the coalition government.

In contrast in Ireland - Labour and FG have been coalition partners off and on for the past 6o or 70 years  - the Irish are used to this combo and most if not all people voting Labour in Ireland would have done so with the expectation that labour would probably form a coalition with FG. Also since FG will have about twoce as many seats as Labour - that means Labour is in a position to negotiate for at least one third of all cabinet portfolios (unlike the scraps the LDs got by virtue of being outnumbers 6 to 1 by the Tories).

[minionofmidas]

"RTÉ's Valerie Cox says the Wicklow ballot was double-sided and the size of a tabloid newspaper page, so has been very hard to count."

Who's dumb enough to make an STV ballot double-sided? I demand that heads roll. (No objection to the size - you should see our local election ballot. Heck, I got a sample here. I'll measure it. Coming up in a minute.)

[minionofmidas]

Approximately 65 by 120 centimeters. There are  889 candidates...

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I think they mean it was in two columns.  Here it is:

[Associate Justice PiT]

Approximately 65 by 120 centimeters. There are  889 candidates...

     Never occurred to them to render the ballot on multiple sheets, eh?

[minionofmidas]

Approximately 65 by 120 centimeters. There are  889 candidates...

     Never occurred to them to render the ballot on multiple sheets, eh?

They probably noticed that that would be even less userfriendly. This is a single election. There are 93 seats to fill and everybody has 93 votes. (Open-list PR.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Recount results in Galway W and Laois/Offaly should come soon.

[minionofmidas]

And that in Wicklow has apparently arrived. Dick Roche is still eliminated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

GW recount is already almost 1 hour late. L/O's should have come 8 minutes ago...

[Oakvale]

Apparently Ireland also elected its first ever openly gay TD in Dominic Hannigan (Labour - Meath E)

Followed shortly after by its second openly gay TD, John Lyons (Labour - Dublin NW).

[minionofmidas]

OMG! Roving hordes of homosexuals in Leinster House!