Irish Election Results Thread

[Kevinstat]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1977?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

[Edited to correct 1974 to 1977 and to mention that this was my 1,000th post on the "new" (post-2003) Atlas Forum.]

[Dan the Roman]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

You mean 1977?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Kevinstat]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

You mean 1977?

Yes.  The boundaries for that election were drawn in 1974 (the "Tullymander").  That's what threw me off.

[DistingFlyer]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

They didn't, though they did win 3/4 - to get 4/5 you need two-thirds of the vote, which is pretty damn difficult. The first count gives them 65%, so with transfers they should make it.

[Хahar 🤔]

Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

Because Éamon de Valera didn't accept the Treaty. Don't be ridiculous.

[Хahar 🤔]

bye, bye Cyprian Brady

Cyprian Brady was just Bertie Ahern's second seat, no?

[DistingFlyer]

Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

[Јas]

Results Table Update

Fine Gael	15
Labour	10
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	4
Fianna Fáil	3
United Left	2
Greens	0

[Хahar 🤔]

Murphy (i) elected in Kildare North.

[Dan the Roman]

Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

FG seems to have done some excellent vote management which should make the rally largely moot vis-e-ve the seat predictions. But we will have to wait until tomorrow to see.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think that there should be an Irish-language count in every constituency.

[Јas]

Trevor Sargent is eliminated in Dublin N - effectively guaranteeing the end of 22 years of Green Party representation in the Dáil.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour below 20%...

[DistingFlyer]

Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

FG seems to have done some excellent vote management which should make the rally largely moot vis-e-ve the seat predictions. But we will have to wait until tomorrow to see.

I think that the seat outcome is going to be just as bad as was originally projected, but there will be more close misses than were expected. At the moment they're just two points behind Labour (this may change), but a lack of transfers will see them shafted. It does mean that they have a hope of gains next time as opposed to a continued fall, which is what I think might have happened if they had been at 15% as opposed to 18% or so and some narrow losses.

Also, FF seems to be holding up a bit better in the south west - perhaps it's Micheal Martin's coattails or something else, but they're dropping less than 20% in some constituencies there, as opposed to 25% or 30% elsewhere.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

This RTE coverage is so so so crap. Boring as hell, replaying of weird promos... Why is this?

[ilikeverin]

C'mon, Cavan/Monaghan... get on with it   Jas wants to know his results and I want to know my ancestral constituency's results!

[ilikeverin]

C'mon, Cavan/Monaghan... get on with it   Jas wants to know his results and I want to know my ancestral constituency's results!

Ask and ye shall receive!

[Јas]

The Jas guestimation of the overall result:
75 Fine Gael
35 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
13 Sinn Féin
  5 United Left
12 Independents

[Јas]

C'mon, Cavan/Monaghan... get on with it   Jas wants to know his results and I want to know my ancestral constituency's results!

Ask and ye shall receive!

Indeed. 2FG, 1 FF, 1 SF with FG v SF for the final seat- hard to call.

[Kevinstat]

Kerry South 1st Count in:

GRIFFIN, Brendan (FG) 8,808 votes (19.8%)
HEALY RAE, Michael (Ind) 6,670 votes (15.0%)
FLEMING, Tom (Ind) 6,416 votes (14.5%)
*O'DONOGHUE, John (FF) 5,917 votes (13.3%)
*SHEAHAN, Tom (FG) 5,674 votes (12.8%)
GLEESON, Michael (SKIA) 4,939 votes (11.1%)
MOLONEY, Marie (Lab) 4,926 votes (11.1%)
COMERFORD, Oonagh (Green) 401 votes (0.9%) Eliminated
BEHAL, Richard (Ind) 348 votes (0.8%) Eliminated
FINN, Dermot (Ind) 281 votes (0.6%) Eliminated

Quota: 11,096 votes
Elected: 0/4

Fine Gael 14,482 votes (32.6%)
Independents 30.9%
Fianna Fáil 5,917 votes (13.3%)
South Kerry Independent Alliance 4,939 votes (11.1%)
Labour 4,926 votes (11.1%)
Green Party 401 votes (0.9%)

Well, Tom Sheahan's getting "primaried" (not really the same thing I know).  Dissapointing showing for Labour, methinks.  Does Moloney still have a shot?  If she can pass Gleeson and Sheahan and make out well on the Fine Gael surplus, ... is it a reasonable proposition at this point?

[Хahar 🤔]

I can't imagine why the electorate would want to vote for Healy-Rae.

[DistingFlyer]

A bit of a surprise - rather than widening, the Labour-Fianna Fail gap seems to be narrowing. It's 19% to 18% with only two constituencies left to go.

[Hash]

A bit of a surprise - rather than widening, the Labour-Fianna Fail gap seems to be narrowing. It's 19% to 18% with only two constituencies left to go.

It would be terrible if FF got second in the vote share.

[Kevinstat]

The last two constituencies to complete their first count (Kerry South and particularly Cavan-Monaghan) were not strong Labour areas.  Labour could well finish ahead of Fianna Fáil in Wicklow (despite getting less than half as many votes as Fianna Fáil's in 2007) and should crush FF in Dublin South Central.  I'm confident that Labour will finish second in first preferences nationwide.