Irish Election Results Thread

[DL]

Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

First constituency to finish counting is Dublin West.  Lenihan got back in.

DUBLIN WEST [4]
First Preferences
*Joan Burton  Lab  9627
*Leo Varadkar  FG  8359
*Joe Higgins  Soc  8084
*Brian Lenihan  FF  6421
Kieran Dennison  FG  3190
Patrick Nulty  Lab  2686
Paul Donnelly  SF  2597
David McGuinness  FF  623
Roderick O'Gorman  Grn  605
Clement Esebamen  Ind  280

Transfers (Quota = 8495)
Stage         I   II  III   IV    V
Burton     9627 8495 8495 8495 8495
Varadkar   8359 8555 8555 8555 8555
Higgins    8084 8304 8603 8603 8603
Lenihan    6421 6494 7050 7323 8289
-----------------------------------
Nulty      2686 3186 3450 4701 6329
Dennison   3190 3248 3440 3693
Donnelly   2597 2646 2749
McGuinness  623  631
O'Gorman    605  625
Esebamen    280  288

[DistingFlyer]

Imagine what would have happened with FPTP. It would be like Canada 1993, even with transferable votes. Actually especially with them.

I think it would have been worse - the Tory result was mainly because of the Reform split, so if there had been an Irish or Australian-style system they would have done all right, and certainly better than Fianna Fail is doing today. This is just a pure meltdown - a more apt Canadian comparison would be the 1935 disintegration of the United Farmers in Alberta.

[Јas]

Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Photograph time!

[Јas]

Looks like Cavan-Monaghan going to a recount.

[Oakvale]

Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

In a normal political system that would probably happen.

[Insula Dei]

Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents

Is the exit poll likely correct in giving Independents + ULA more votes than FF ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First prefs for Kerry North-West Limerick: FG 40.8, SF 20.3, Labour 20.1, FF 11.5

[tpfkaw]

Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

I didn't really understand this either...  Apparently there's century-old bad blood between FF and FG, and they absolutely hate each other (the founders of Fianna Fail opposed the treaty creating th Irish Free State, the founders of Fine Gael supported it).  A second reason is that FF is seen as the "government" party and FG is the "opposition" party, and FG would have no reason for existing other than to oppose FF.  Also, since the election can't really be seen as anything other than a total repudiation of FF, it would be seen as violating "the will of the people" for the governing coalition to include FF.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

I didn't really understand this either...  Apparently there's century-old bad blood between FF and FG, and they absolutely hate each other (the founders of Fianna Fail opposed the treaty creating th Irish Free State, the founders of Fine Gael supported it).  A second reason is that FF is seen as the "government" party and FG is the "opposition" party, and FG would have no reason for existing other than to oppose FF.  Also, since the election can't really be seen as anything other than a total repudiation of FF, it would be seen as violating "the will of the people" for the governing coalition to include FF.

You really need to be Irish to understand this (or at least the social dynamics of many small Irish towns and the countryside).

[The Man From G.O.P.]

If I have to hear "whopping" again.... geez

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You really need to be Irish to understand this (or at least the social dynamics of many small Irish towns and the countryside).

I'm not sure if dynamic is quite the right word you're looking for there.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Even by the standards of the day FFs collapse in Roscommon/S.Leitrim is extraordinary fail. Only 15%. And one of its candidate eliminated in the first count. In Roscommon/S.Leitrim.

@Al: Excellent point though pointless petty inter-generational jealousy and begrudgery counts as a dynamic, no?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cork North Central (4 Seats)

O'BRIEN, Jonathan SF  15.2%  7923
*KELLEHER, Billy FF  15.1%  7896
*LYNCH, Kathleen LAB  14.7%  7676
BURTON, Pat FG  13.6%  7072
MURPHY, Dara FG  12.7%  6597
GILROY, John LAB  11.7%  6125
BARRY, Mick SP  9.2%  4803
O'SULLIVAN, Pádraig IND  2.0%  1020
CONWAY, Kevin IND  1.8%  958
TYNAN, Ted WP  1.3%  681
WALSH, Ken GP  1.0%  524
REA, Harry CSP  0.6%  324
ADAMS, John IND  0.5%  282
ASHU-ARRAH, Benjamin Ashu IND   0.3%  161
O'ROURKE, Fergus IND   0.2%  95

Anyone willing to predict how this end?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

@Al: Excellent point though pointless petty inter-generational jealousy and begrudgery counts as a dynamic, no?

Maybe. Though perhaps more like flies flitting along the top of a stagnant pool...

[Јas]

Micheál Martin, FF leader, re-elected in Cork SC just getting over the quota on Count 1.
Only FF candidate to top the poll so far today.

[Kevinstat]

Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents

Repeating a question I asked in the now-closed thread on this election:

"How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?"

Also, can someone tell me how likely/certain Sinn Féin would nominate a candidate for President if they had the votes to?  I know they wouldn't win, but having a candidate on the ballot in what would probably be no more than a four-candidate race would be quite a coup.  Perhaps they could survive into the second count (if there is one) after whomever agrees to run for Fianna Fáil is eliminated or otherwise finish ahead of that candidate on the first count.

[DistingFlyer]

Martin wins, with the best FF result so far - only a 16% drop, leaving them on 28%. Not much comfort for them, but given what's been happening it'll probably give them some comfort.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin-Mid West just finished as predicted early: 2LAB 2FG. Significant fact was that FF voters were more willing to transfer to Labour than FG and slightly more willing to transfer to SF to FG.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Moyninhan (FF) going to be re-elected in Cork North West because he got an amazing load of SF transfers. Hmmmm....

[Јas]

Oooh.
RTÉ Radio just interupted the start of an interview with the Taoiseach, to go to the Mayo count. That's gotta hurt.

[Јas]

Repeating a question I asked in the now-closed thread on this election:

"How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.

Sorry, don't know.
The maths of the Seanad Election are beyond me without quite a bit of research.

Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?"

Yes, he could vote to nominate himself.

Also, can someone tell me how likely/certain Sinn Féin would nominate a candidate for President if they had the votes to?  

It would be very surprising to me if they didn't.

[DistingFlyer]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

[Јas]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.