Irish Election Results Thread

[Јas]

Full Dublin West first preferences:

Burton (Lab) - 9627 (22.7%) Elected
Varadkar (FG) - 8359 (19.7%)
Higgins (Soc) - 8084 (19.0%)
Lenihan (FF) - 6421 (15.1%)
Denison (FG) - 3190 (7.5%)
Nulty (Lab) - 2686 (6.3%)
Donnelly (SF) - 2597 (6.1%)
McGuinness (FF) - 623 (1.5%)
O'Gorman (Grn) - 605 (1.4%)
Esebamen (Ind) - 280 (0.7%)

Look like 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc, 1 FF unless anti-FF transfers are very, very strong, in which case the last seat could go to FG or Lab.

Only Labour have a shot here. SF's tarnsfers will put Nulty well ahead of Denison.
I imagine it can be run close, but yes Lenihan looks like he will get that last seat.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.

But SF over FG? 1FG 2LAB 1SF *is* possible however at this point I will say that 2FG 2LAB is the most likely outcome.

[Јas]

Longford-Westmeath first count

Willie Penrose 19.9%
James Bannon 15.9%
Peter Burke 11.6%
Nicky McFadden 10.8%
Paul Hogan 7.5%
Robert Troy 7.3%
Mae Sexton 6.8%
Peter Kelly 6.7%
Mary O'Rourke 5.4%
Siobhan Kinahan 0.5%
Others 7.7%

Not sure on parties for some of those candidates, though.

19.4% for FF here - just short of a quota, but having it split between 3 means they would really be very hard pressed to win it.

Decent FG vote split (they're 2nd, 3rd and 4th) - not sure if they'll be able to hold those spots though.

Labour top the poll, but a better vote split could've put 2 seats in contention.

EDIT: This is a final tally, rather than a first count btw.

[Јas]

Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.

But SF over FG? 1FG 2LAB 1SF *is* possible however at this point I will say that 2FG 2LAB is the most likely outcome.

Fair point. To do that Ó Bróin will probably need to do fairly well from those PBP votes.

[Јas]

Results Table

Labour	2	(+1: Rabbitte, Dublin SW)
Fianna Fáil	1
Fine Gael	0
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Independents	0

[Hash]

2 Lab, 1 SF, 1 FG in Dublin SW?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

WOW at how badly FF did in DSW.

Looks almost certain to be 2 LAB, 1SF and 1FG. It will be unless FF transfer in very odd ways.

[Јas]

2 Lab, 1 SF, 1 FG in Dublin SW?

Yep, anything else would be quite surprising.

[Hash]

woo, FF down 28.5% in DSW. Could Brian Lenihan turn out to be FF's only Dublin TD?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

woo, FF down 28.5% in DSW. Could Brian Lenihan turn out to be FF's only Dublin TD?

At this stage it looks rather likely. Perhaps only Dublin South (one of only two five seaters in Dublin - the other is Dublin South Central where FF might have their worst result in the entire country) and maybe Dublin South East.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Rte.ie has Kildare North up (4 seats):

*DURKAN, Bernard FG  19.9%  10168
*STAGG, Emmet LAB  19.0%  9718
MURPHY, Catherine IND  13.5%  6911
LAWLOR, Anthony FG  13.4%  6882
McGINLEY, John LAB  10.3%  5261
*BRADY, Áine FF  9.3%  4777
KELLY, Martin SF  5.7%  2896
*FITZPATRICK, Michael FF  5.2%  2659
FITZGERALD, Shane GP   1.8%  905
DOYLE-HIGGINS, Eric IND   0.8%  423
BEIRNE, Michael IND   0.8%  422
MURPHY, Bart IND   0.4%  200

Durkan just short of a quota but also certain to be elected in the next count. Again this will be one of those consistuencies where the final seat will be decided by transfers from FF.

[Јas]

Can't rule out FF in Dublin N just yet, I'd venture.

[Verily]

Carlow-Kilkenny

JP Phelan (FG) 15.4%
Hogan (FG) 14.4%
McGuinness (FF) 12.6%
A Phelan (Lab) 11%
Deering (FG) 10.6%
Aylward (FF) 9.3%
Murnane O'Connor (FF) 6.1%
Funchion (SF) 5.3%
Hurley (Lab) 4.9%
Cassin (SF) 4%
White (Grn) 2.8%

Hard to know what that portends. At least 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF, likely, then one seat between FG and FF.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can't rule out FF in Dublin N just yet, I'd venture.

We can if we are trusting the tallies so far (or at least the ones I´ve read).

Varadkar elected on the second count in Dublin West.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

DUBLIN WEST [4]
First Preferences
Joan Burton  Lab  9627
Leo Varadkar  FG  8359
Joe Higgins  Soc  8084
Brian Lenihan  FF  6421
Keiran Dennison  FG  3190
Patrick Nulty  Lab  2686
Paul Donnelly  SF  2597
David McGuinness  FF  623
Roderic O'Gorman  Grn  605
Clement Esebamen  Ind  280

Quota is 8495.  Next stage will be transfer of Burton's surplus votes.

Shares are Lab 29 FG 27.2 Soc 19.0 FF 16.6.

Burton's surplus put Varadkar over the quota for the second seat.  Bottom three eliminated.

[Јas]

Results Table

Labour	2
Fianna Fáil	1
Fine Gael	1	(+1: Varadkar, Dublin W)
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Independents	0

[Јas]

Results Table

Labour	3	(+1: Wall, Kildare S)
Fine Gael	2	(+1: Heydon, Kildare S)
Fianna Fáil	1
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Independents	0

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Kildare South (3 seats):

HEYDON, Martin FG   33.3%  12755
*WALL, Jack  LAB   27.8%  10645    
*Ó FEARGHAÍL, Seán FF  11.8%  4514
*POWER, Seán FF  9.9%  3793
KENNEDY, Paddy IND  7.3%  2806
TURNER, Jason SF  6.0%  2308
REID, Clifford T. IND  2.4%  926
CUMMINS, Vivian GP  1.4%  523

Bold to indicate elected. FG really missed the boat by running only one candidate. FF sure to get a seat here alas.

[Verily]

Yeah, big fail by both FG and Lab running only one candidate each in Kildare South. Maybe their surpluses will go heavily to Paddy Kennedy?

[Јas]

Results Table

Labour	4	(+1: Gilmore, Dún Laoighaire)
Fianna Fáil	1
Fine Gael	1
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Independents	0

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

[Јas]

Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

Possibly, but surely it's more likely that Boyd-Barrett or Bacik will take the last seat?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

Possibly, but surely it's more likely that Boyd-Barrett or Bacik will take the last seat?

Yes. But either way the last will be elected way under the Quota.

[Јas]

Results Table

Labour	4
Fine Gael	3	(+1: O'Reilly, Dublin N)
Fianna Fáil	1
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Independents	0

With the Dublin N declaration, goes any real hope of a Green being returned I presume.
I still think a FF seat is possible (just) there, though admittedly unlikely.

[Јas]

Results Table

Labour	4
Fine Gael	3
Fianna Fáil	1
Independents	1	(+1: Ross, Dublin S)
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0

Outstanding result for Ross.